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Research into the use of structured analytical techniques has shown that analysts use specific structured techniques to achieve better analysis results than using traditional intuitive approaches. The experiment was based on solving the analytical tasks of two intelligence scenarios in a set of 32 people. To verify the null hypothesis, a chi-square test of independence was performed at a 5% significance level. In the control/intuitive and experimental/structured technique groups, responses were evaluated in four criteria, in an overall qualitative intelligence analysis, in rank corps, depending on the time of service and education. The number of correct answers was the highest in the experimental group when dealing with the intelligence analysis criteria for both scenarios. Improved analysis of the experimental group in the second scenario solution was statistically significant. The null hypothesis, using structured methodology improves qualitative intelligence analysis, is not rejected. In the experiment, other test criteria are below than the critical value. The results of the research have shown that the success of the problem solution is influenced by the correct use of the Hypothesis Testing technique. The use of structured techniques depends on the level of knowledge and the type of intelligence problem. At the same time, the conduct of research has shown the influence of analysts' cognitive biases.

In 2007 and 2010, this Czech Military Review Vojenské rozhledy published several articles, discussing analytical thinking and analytical methodologies in the field of military intelligence. The authors among others mentioned the methodology ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The methodology is not suitable only for intelligence, but it can be used further for solving a variety of military decision-making problems. The article in its first part describes ACH philosophy, including some academic considerations both by supporters and critics to this methodology. The second part demonstrates an example of its implementation and usage during support other problems tied with decision-making in defence planning process. The method is simple to explain, but difficult to introduce to real practice. The article explains both the theory and modifications of ACH and underlines some pitfalls connected with putting methodology into practice.

The article deals with some military consequences of the departure of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the European Union (Brexit). To assess the potential impacts on defence and security of EU, a structured approach involving several methods was used in the analysis, which combines a search of professional publications, factors sensitivity analysis and testing of hypotheses. Based on the analysis, it was evaluated that the departure of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland from the structures of the European Union will take place without significant impact in the military field and does not pose an immediate threat to the security and defence of EU member states. Nevertheless, in connection with Brexit, there is still a certain risk of negative impacts in this area.

The article discusses the possibilities of joint deployment of combat unmanned ground vehicles with combat infantry units. It summarizes the deployment of these assets in past and present military operations, including the presentation of deployment experiences available from public sources, and examines the joint deployment of an infantry squad with an unmanned ground combat platform during an attack operation. Using a constructive simulation, it presents the results of the deployment of an infantry squad during an attack operation with and without the support of a combat unmanned ground vehicle. As part of the discussion, he develops the ideas necessary for the cooperation of the unit with an unmanned vehicle. The aim of the article is, among other things, to open a debate in the professional community about the possibilities of effective use of unmanned ground systems to support the activity of combat units in military operations.

The article addresses the use of social media intelligence (SOCMINT) as a tool for recruiting and selecting souces by foreign intelligence services, with an emphasis on the risks it poses to students in military studies at national military universitiy. It analyzes the specific ways in which SOCMINT enables foreign intelligence agencies to effectively gather personal data and profile potential collaborators from both public and private information shared online. Research conducted among students of the University of Defense and other institutions revealed that military students share comparable types of information on social networks as their civilian peers, making them equally vulnerable to the activities of foreign intelligence services. However, military students are preparing for careers in defense and security, making them a significantly more attractive target for foreign intelligence agencies than other categories of employees.

Biosafety and biodefense (i.e. all countermeasures preventing the spread of biological agents in the environment and population) are on the regular agenda of states and their militaries. Somewhat aside are global catastrophic biological risks (GCBR), which can destroy human society as a biological species. Although a precise definition of what constitutes a global catastrophic biological risk is still being sought, it can be considered the impact of potential global catastrophic risks (GCR) on the social, economic and biological structure of human existence. This implies that GCBRs are a subset of GCRs. It is also open to discussion whether in the case of GCBRs the risk must necessarily be biological agents, from viruses to humans, or whether anthropogenic threats can also be accepted as risk factors, or what the impact must be for a risk to be included under the designation GCBR.

The selection of optimal weapon systems is crucial for national defense. Traditional empirical methods struggle to address the complexities of modern warfare. This article explores the potential of constructive simulation for informed decision-making in this domain. Simulating tactical operations with complex variables, such as terrain, enemy actions, and system interoperability, provides valuable insights into weapon effectiveness. This enables the optimization of acquisitions in line with strategic goals. Design simulation allows for the exploration of factors difficult to test comparison of armament configurations, analysis of enemy tactics, and optimization of unit composition and deployment, saving costs and time. Simulation enables the safe exploration of even high-risk scenarios.

The article addresses the issue of the emergence of new technologies and their impact on the capabilities of the Czech Armed Forces (CAF). A summary of the recommendations is presented. In particular, there is a need for a conceptual approach to the integration of new systems in order to avoid spontaneous purchasing, which could be very logistically demanding. The very rapid development in the field of unmanned autonomous systems using elements of artificial intelligence offers opportunities to use them in support of the tasks of CAF. Due to the breadth of this issue, the scope is limited to the area of the Special Forces, which introduce these new sophisticated means into use throughout the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic.

The article deals with the issue of the cognitive pyramid and the possible use of intelligence analysis in the context of gaining the understanding and wisdom of users of information using this pyramid. The cognitive pyramid is used to define the terms date, information, knowledge, understanding and wisdom that make up the various levels of the pyramid. The paper attempts to discuss concepts in different models of the pyramid. It briefly describes intelligence in the context of the use of intelligence by means of a cognitive pyramid. Intelligence is a special kind of knowledge. This article also seeks to explore how intelligence creation can be explained using a cognitive analytical pyramid model.

Structured analysis is a systematic approach to solving intelligence analytic problems. Methodology and analytical techniques in the intelligence analysis include the selection of structured techniques from the point of view of the analytical task and the use of the analytical spectrum. Basic structured analytical techniques ensure transparency and reduce personality bias. Taxonomy is the basis for quality analysis. There are 55 types of techniques that complement expert judgment and intuition. A properly structured analysis contains twelve questions supplemented by a number of analytical techniques. The method of analytical spectrum in strategy leads to the split of the process into the phase of analysis, synthesis, selection of information and argumentation, and the analysis itself consists of four sub-stages. The basic parameters that negatively affect the use of structured analytical techniques by intelligence analysts are the analytical and collective approach, the patterns and the level of education.

Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

The retraining courses of the Ministry of Defence aim to prepare soldiers for the civilian environment and to enable them to acquire the knowledge and skills that are applicable in the labour market. In the years 2008-2017 11 605 soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces terminated their service. The application for retraining was submitted by 3 644 persons, of whom 2 769 were retrained. The prevalence of retraining is in technical professions (1 342 persons) and in managerial and business training (832 persons). The research question and the statistical evaluation of the data obtained confirms the hypothesis that most soldiers were not retrained. The results of sociological research carried out among 313 former soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces show that more than three fifths of soldiers did not apply for retraining (64%), especially among higher positions and college graduates, because of no information about the data of termination of service (25%), no need for retraining (20 %) and not completing the retraining course (30 %) mostly because of the refusal of the superiors. The shortcomings of the retraining system of professional soldiers are summarized.

The article deals with the experimentation in the military domain. It is anchored by the experiment explanation in the NATO context paying special attention to the capability development. Basic principles and terminology of design, execution and analysis is discussed in the following part employing 5W approach. The main focus is aimed at the experiments' examples from the NATO and Nations environment. The article is closed by the explanation of the role of the experiment in the decision making process under the uncertainty in the complex environment.

This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The article informs about the state service of professional soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic. It compares the state service of professional soldiers in both countries mentioned and analyses the changes that took place in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic on January 1, 2016. With reference to the state service it deals with the career of professional soldiers in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. It offers the list of current career courses in the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. It analyses and compares the career courses designed for officers of both countries.

The aim of the article is to bring inspiration and offer needed recommendations for implementing the scenarios in the defence planning process. The article addresses purpose, development and practical application of scenarios in a national defence planning process, utilizing capability based planning (National Capability Based Defence Planning - NCBDP). During the planning scenarios are used for identification and verification of capability requirements. Scenarios depict main features of the environment in which the armed forces will be employed to execute military missions. Scenarios reflect as well operational concepts in a sense of doctrinal use of armed forces. Furthermore, they offer a possibility to identify and quantify required capabilities in a volatile, difficult to predict, complex, permanently and dynamically changing environment, and reduce level of uncertainty and associated risks. In this regard, scenarios are significant analytical and supporting tool of defence planning with high value added. Correct application of scenarios allows defining a set of required capabilities necessary for success in potential future conflicts. Scenarios enable long-term planning of capabilities development and optimisation as a platform for qualified and well informed decisions at the MoD level on the armed forces character, structure and size with regard to the ambitions and international commitments of the country. In the conclusion the article brings recommendations for the defence planning process improvement by exploiting capability based planning and scenarios. Recommendations provided in the article include doctrinal changes, organizational changes within MoD and General staff, recommendations for updating the education plans for military personnel, recommendations for optimization of the defence planning process as well as for necessary changes in the approach of the defence managers and military leaders to the described method.

The purpose of this analysis is to trace contemporary position of recent war veterans, members of missions abroad after 1989 after they retired. Above it concentrates on their problem on home labour market, eventually on psychic disorders, negative after-effects or syndromes, possible assistance and support on the part of state, eventually of Czech Ministry of Defence. The article is divided into two parts. The first one analyses accessible statistical data concerning participants in foreign missions and at the same time collected data serve for drafting hypothesis tied with a research segment of this paper. The second part of this study evaluates results reached, based upon anonymous questionnaires completed by retired new war veterans in the period from December 4, 2009, till January 25, 2010

Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

The ability to deliver information about an incident, long time before it has happened, puts intelligence analysts into the very first line of fight against the threat of terrorism, extremism, proliferation, or activities of alien services. The article deals with some aspects of intelligence research that often influence the value of final reports, presented to their consumers. It analyses intelligence database designated for its end users. It simultaneously reflects the question of indications and warnings against opponent's surprise attacks. Last but not least, the purpose of this article is both to attract the readers´ attention to this theme and also to start debate on the methods of predictions of future threats, drawn up by analysts´ teams, as their reports are not always suitably recognized by their end users.

The aim of the article is to present an up-to-date discussion on cyberspace as a new, fifth domain of warfare. The reader is provided with the concept of cyberspace, its current interpretation, primarily in American doctrines and military theory. The army mission is contextually mentioned as well, explicitly the limits of Czech forces capacity. The paper deals with the form of cyberspace and its characteristics in the context of military operations. It advocates the idea of cyberspace as a war domain, which is presented together with the criticism to such approach. The article concludes with the summary and evaluation of both sides' arguments, taking into account the specific role and abilities of armed forces.

People must be prepared for unexpected anddangerous situations that must be dealt with immediately. The prerequisite of people training for the emergency situations is their overall preparation. The concept ought to be extending over a relatively long time, well elaborated and coherent. The prerequisite of such preparation is the existence of appropriate laws supporting a lifelong, "biodromaly" conceived educational concept. The readers have a chance to familiarise themselves with results from sociological inquiry, being done at the end of 2010, and with several acts tied with civil emergency preparation.

The primary purpose of this research was to determine the successfulness in language examinations set by STANAG 6001 among future servicemen and prospective officer candidates. In comparison with 2006 their common knowledge was significantly higher. The authors assume they acquire better English capabilities as a result of participation in foreign study projects and increasing level of schools. The results are presented in several tablets and graphs.

Dietary habits and nutritional conditions are closely tied. They were measured and tested during academic semester, namely in time of examination. Results reached were analyzed. Statistics proved our assumption that during the exam period this study burden deeply influenced overall nutritional state by anthropometrical indicators in male clusters; with 95% rate probability it influenced body mass, body fat and the percentage of water in a body. Zero hypothesis was confirmed as far as muscle material was evaluated.

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

The authoress surveys recent research into how people acquire languages and considers its relevance for language teaching. She describes the most important studies and ideas about language acquisition. The method mentioned above is element. If we compare it with other language skills, i.e. reading, writing, speaking, it is above all listening that is used most. But to acquire sufficient proficiency, learners must cover a long way. Language teaches should do it for students the most pleasant as possible. Listening in language classrooms is being assessed, according to levels of students' understanding contents. The authoress familiarizes readers with several ways of teaching by principles that are in fact interactive approaches to learning foreign languages. We may use forecasts, news, listen radios, watch films in target language, be in touch with native speakers. It is reccomended to write down new word power, according to set context.

The famous quotation from Moliére that says "Grammar, which knows how to control even kings", implies importance of grammar for everyday use. There are many way of the acquisition of grammar. The best or smartest way of teaching grammar is to memorize rules in sentence contexts to bear them in mind for a longer time, and learn those rules more easily. The authoress presents new ways in teaching grammar, expressed in works by several famous authors, Barton, Birch, Chomsky, Hudson, Larsen-Freeman, Patterson, Pennington, Weaver. Those are: communicative and competitive models, together with systematic and consistent procedures, resulting in highly motivated structure of learning grammar. In the core of this process lies the strong personality of language instructor.

At present, we pay great attention to alternative methods of teaching and learning foreign languages. Actually, it is difficult for language instructor to choose from among them. This article is a sort of hint to help teachers to pick up the most suitable one. Reciprocal teaching has its prominent position, namely in the field of reading with understanding. There four basic strategies: prediction, questioning, clarification, summarizing. During socio-cognitive conflict, in discussion, the language knowledge of learners (students) is pushed up and higher, learners are mutually influenced in social interaction. This learning process is sometimes recorded, monitored. The role of a teacher is multifaceted, indispensable and very demanding. New security threats ask for the transformation of NATO alliance, in the background of political Islam or the recent Russian-Georgian conflict. The contents analysis of presented papers points to main hidden problem lying behind all security questions: whether the U.S. would be able to continue in its role as a world leader, explicitly owing to American economy difficulties, e.g. today's financial and mortgage crisis.