Horizon 2030: The Risk-Laden Future of Global Security


The article analyzes several key conclusions of US National Intelligence Council's study "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", published in December 2012. Primarily it focuses on: the diffusion of global power influencing political, economic and security development on both global and regional scales; rising importance of the Asia-Pacific region for global economy and security; Sino-American security relations; the role that the United States and Europe should be played in the changing geopolitical reality. The conclusions offer the author's own interpretation of certain development trajectories, based on his earlier published monographs, studies and articles.

Miloš Balaban, Ph.D. (Col ret.), born in 1962. During period of 1983 - 2001 he acted in the Armed Forces and in MoD. Author and member of the management committees of two international projects EU / PHARE. Since 2001 he was working in the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Charles University in Prague (CESES). Since 2004 he has been a head of the CESES Centre for Security Policy. In 2008-2009 - member of working group "Foresight and Scenarios" European Security Research and Innovation Forum. Member of the Scientific Board of the Director General of Fire and Rescue Service. Author of dozens of studies and articles on security policy.

Country: Czech Republic


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