Selected Problems of Intelligence Analysis


The ability to deliver information about an incident, long time before it has happened, puts intelligence analysts into the very first line of fight against the threat of terrorism, extremism, proliferation, or activities of alien services. The article deals with some aspects of intelligence research that often influence the value of final reports, presented to their consumers. It analyses intelligence database designated for its end users. It simultaneously reflects the question of indications and warnings against opponent's surprise attacks. Last but not least, the purpose of this article is both to attract the readers´ attention to this theme and also to start debate on the methods of predictions of future threats, drawn up by analysts´ teams, as their reports are not always suitably recognized by their end users.

Doc. Ing. Oldřich Horák, CSc., COL (Ret.), born in 1943. He graduated the Higher Military School in Vyškov and Military Academy in Brno, in the intelligence field. He acted as a chef of intelligence at the Panzer Division, later as the Chief Intelligence Information Group at the 4th Army Headquarters. Since 1985, he was teaching at the Faculty of Command at the Military Academy in Brno. From 1989 to 1998 he was a head of the Military Intelligence Department and in period of 2004 - 2006 he worked as a lecturer at the Institute of Operational and Tactical Studies and at the Faculty of Military Technology of the University of Defense in Brno. He currently works at the Department of Military Management and Tactics of the Faculty of Economics and Management.


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