Analysis of Taiwan Guerilla Potential – A Real Possibility or a Naive Notion?


Existing research about China and Taiwan deals primarily with bilateral relations, military doctrines, etc. They don't pay much attention to the consequences of the potential China-Taiwan war. The article examines conditions for emerging and activity of guerillas with paramilitant signs in the case of China's domination over Taiwan. The analysis is based on the present general, socio-economic, political, geographical, and technological environment. A substantial part of the analysis is also argumentation about the potential of urban guerilla. The article is based on data, pieces of information, polls and academic and analytical texts relevant to the main research questions. Those questions are the potential for emerging, sustainability, and effectiveness of guerilla. The article comes with findings, that argue the relatively high potential for the emergence of guerilla primarily because of the suitable environment in Taiwan and possible effectiveness and sustainability based on existing variables, which can however also limit this potential.

Richard Oubělický,  born 2001. At the moment, he is an undergraduate student in a program called security and strategic studies in combination with program international relations at the Faculty of Social Studies at Masaryk University. He mainly focuses on security in operational domain space, technology in the context of security and defense, and irregular warfare.

Country: Czech Republic


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