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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

This paper is above all a quick piece of information on current problem which could have provoked a large war in the Middle East. And also about a unique operation to resolve it. Syrian chemical weapons used to be a serious threat to the entire Middle East, mainly in the context of the ongoing civil war. This was confirmed by repeated use of nerve agent sarin during the conflict. The destruction of Syrian chemical weapons eliminated the threat of escalation of the conflict and its extension to other countries.

The authors analyze the implementation of militant democracy concept in Central Europe, i.e. Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, as those are nations having experiences both with Nazi and communist regimes. The opening part covers a short history of this concepts and mechanisms used to suppress extremist subjects; subsequently the book compares practical instruments of counter-extremist policies, their individual principles and arrangements. This is the comparison that constitutes the main asset to the problem.
MAREŠ, Miroslav - VÝBORNÝ, Štěpán. Militantní demokracie ve střední Evropě. 1. vyd. Brno: Centrum pro studium demokracie a kultury (CDK), 2013. 249 s. Politologická řada. ISBN 978-80-7325-326-4.

This paper addresses a gap in the literature relating to the effects and implications of water scarcity and the potential for water wars. The theme has evident military consequences. Experts provide rather pessimistic forecasts about the situation with freshwater on the planet. The early warning models seem to be quite useful as well as early warning conflict indicators. The author deals with the problem from the level of the Czech Republic.

The article deals with some aspects of long-term planning in the sector of theMinistry of Defence. Its aim is to stimulate discussion about the methods and processes of long-term planning, to point out some shortcomings in the development of strategic documents in the past. The text also describes the basis for long-term planning process and particularly the role of long-term foresight. The author analyses lessons learned from the developing and implementation of Long-Term Vision of the Ministry of Defence document (2008) and tries to aply them in drafting a new document, The Long-Term Vision for Defence in 2030, is now being prepared under the leadership of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. He also highlights some of the theoretical principles for developing documents in the process of strategic management.

Data analyses using methods of exploratory and inductive statistics nowadays form an integral part of many areas of human activities. The paper is focused on the statistical processing of data using a new application STAT1 that works under Microsoft Office Excel. The explanation is given, the source is stated, and the comparison with alternative application software tools is mentioned. Moreover, the examples of practical utilization of STAT1 in the military area are presented.

War game is a simulation of military operations intended to train military commanders or to test a proposed strategy. It is a game in which model soldiers are used to create battles, in order to study tactics. This article illustrates the importance of War Game COAs (course of action). It was tested against opposing force COAs. Such exercise will help to identify advantages and disadvantages and the key elements of execution planning for each COA. The lesson learned during OHQ CZE/SVK BG EU Staff Exercises that took place in Olomouc from January 19th, to January 23rd, and from February 16th, to February 20th, 2009 is that war-gaming (although time consuming) is something closer to "reality" than the "theory" in doctrines. The war-gaming practices teamwork, facilitates team-building and enables to share mental model COA. Commanders and their staff ought to be engaged in simulations and war games more frequently. All information and sources for this paper were drawn from unclassified materials.

The establishment of the Permanent Structured Co-operation (PESCO) in defence in 2017 is one of the most important European initiatives of recent years, aiming at enhancing effectiveness in addressing security challenges and advancing towards further integrating defence cooperation within the EU framework. The article describes the genesis of PESCO and explains its functioning, including its legal framework, objectives, the role of the main actors and the dynamics of the whole process. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the scope and strength of the more binding commitments that the participating Member States have decided to fulfil in the name of strengthening Europe's defence under the umbrella of the Common Security and Defence Policy.

The retraining courses of the Ministry of Defence aim to prepare soldiers for the civilian environment and to enable them to acquire the knowledge and skills that are applicable in the labour market. In the years 2008-2017 11 605 soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces terminated their service. The application for retraining was submitted by 3 644 persons, of whom 2 769 were retrained. The prevalence of retraining is in technical professions (1 342 persons) and in managerial and business training (832 persons). The research question and the statistical evaluation of the data obtained confirms the hypothesis that most soldiers were not retrained. The results of sociological research carried out among 313 former soldiers of the Czech Armed Forces show that more than three fifths of soldiers did not apply for retraining (64%), especially among higher positions and college graduates, because of no information about the data of termination of service (25%), no need for retraining (20 %) and not completing the retraining course (30 %) mostly because of the refusal of the superiors. The shortcomings of the retraining system of professional soldiers are summarized.

This article deals with the Czech defence industry and its role in the defense policy of the Czech Republic. The basic goal of the text is a short introduction to abilities of the Czech defence industry and answering the question if and how it is able to fulfil the demand of the Czech defence sector for an armament and a military gear. Basic items needed for a military capability of soldiers on a field and the ability to develop and produce them at the Czech territory is mainly examined.

The aim of the article is to make the general public acquainted with a new view of the state service issue and to offer the author´s observations and conclusions relating to state service issues. The article briefly explains the public service and defines the relationship between the public service and the state service. It describes the organization of the state service and the entities of service relationships in the Czech Republic. It deals with the employment relationship - its origin, non acceptance for employment relationship and its termination. It presents important milestones of the employment relationship, such as an oath of service, a clerical exam and a service evaluation. It characterizes the state service within the Ministry of Defence, clarifies the role and responsibilities of the Secretary of State within the Ministry of Defence, state employees and other categories of the staff in the service office.

The article focuses on the issue of foreign fighters from the Balkan peninsula, and examines the measures that have been taken by governments in the region to combat it. The author asserts that the first ISIS losses and the thinning of the first wave of enthusiastic recruits accompanied with the first disillusioned returnees and changes in public policies and in public discourse (political narrative and narrative of Islamic communities, mass media) caused the unprecedented decline in the number of new recruits.

Implementation of project management is a step by which the organization declares that it wants to offer unique products in the appropriate quality. Just as a newly implemented process to an organization is not always perfect and needs to be constantly improved. Consequently, the project management implemented in the organization needs to be improved. The article presents the main problems identified by the members of the project management courses, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno in period 2011 - 2018. The authors of the article, based on the analysis of the findings, concluded that problems identified in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic are solvable and present possible approaches to the solution.

The article deals with the mental strain, as subjectively perceived by Czech soldiers and their families in the course of and after return from international missions. The research part was processed based on nine in-depth interviews with soldiers with different experiences from foreign missions. The data were processed with the help of grounded theory. The results showed that the involvement in missions is mainly positively assessed, primarily thanks to professional development. The operations bring specific stressors; additionally to critical situations, there is primarily the stress related to separation from the family and the cabin fever. The soldiers cope with the stressors thanks to the contact with their families, thanks to a good team, leisure time activities and support from the chaplain or the psychologist. The duration of the adaptation stage after the mission varies very much. It includes problems with restoring contact with the children and adapting to routine life, as well as the envy of surrounding people, considered by the soldiers a "Czech particularity", caused by low positive publicity of the Czech army.

Since the 1st release of an internal ministerial norm guiding planning processes of activities and development within the Czech Ministry of Defence (MOD) presuming existence of Capability Planning Methodology, this document has not been established. This article offers selected theoretical starting points and, on their basis, it outlines possible a ministerial process tree focused on the capability process as a ground for its definition within Czech MOD conditions. Further in a framework of an added value model proposes possible internal structure of above mentioned process down to sub-processes level with justification of their purpose and mutual links. Formulating mentioned attributes of the capability planning process this article makes a contribution to set up this process within the Czech MOD.

The aim of the article is to recall the thoughts of war strategists on how to conduct military operations during the Cold War and to present the issue of operational maneuvering groups. Their use was a new conceptual framework of offensive operations led by the highly mobile military units of the Warsaw Pact in the 1970s and 1980s. Based on the analysis and comparison of historical sources, a set of information and knowledge from the field of military art is presented here as well as a more comprehensive view on the tactical, operational and strategic context of the offensive operations on the European battlefield. Their impacts were also essential in the way of training of troops and education of military officers in the former regime.

Personnel Recovery is currently an inseparable part of all NATO military operations. This article is focused on the development of the Personnel Recovery in military operations from the Second World War to the 2003 Iraq War. It describes the meaning of the concept of Personnel Recovery, introduces its basic aims including the clarification of its importance in military operations. It focuses on the identification of conditions that determine the existence of the rescue system. In the historical context, it describes the circumstances of development of the recovery of isolated personnel, including its incorporation into a functional system. It identifies and analyzes events that, in terms of their importance and ability to influence subsequent development, represents milestones in the organization of Personnel Recovery and from them describes the measures taken.

The article describes an approach to development of a national military capability requirements database and its relationship with reference units which will be finally used for assessing capabilities of existing force units. Outcomes from recently completed analyses lead to the conclusion that the single set of capability requirements as specified in the Bi-SC Agreed Capability Codes and Capability Statements, can be taken as a key stone for developing a national database of capability requirements. A due adaptation of this document to the Czech MOD allows getting a complex frame of capabilities which force units shall manage to achieve given operational tasks both in the context of a national or multinational task force group. Consequently such a database can be exploited for setting up a mechanism for capability assessment.

Use of child soldiers by rebel armed forces has been growing in recent years. In comparison to preceding conflicts, main reasons for their use have changed significantly - at the present time, children have become highly efficient psychological weapon in battles against the military from developed countries. This may have momentous consequences not only for the given children but also for professional soldiers. Fighting against child soldiers can indisputably affect the soldiers' capability to discharge their duties. Furthermore, they have to cope with many individual moral dilemmas. The article will look into potential moral aspects regarding confrontation between child soldiers and members of professional armed forces. In the following section, training of professional soldiers and preparation of military mission will be explored. Subsequently, weaknesses which are crucial to forestall in the future will be outlined.

The paper deals with general aspects of problems of biological warfare agents and toxic industrial biologicals understanding from the point of view of protection against their effects and a possibility of specialists´ cooperation. The aim of the paper is to point to some problematic aspects of biological defense realization in connection to experiences from their historical usage. With the help of analysis of current strategical and operational documents and synthesis of available experiences from operational deployment of medical service and chemical corps units variants of optimization of current state have been proposed. These ones are main conclusion of the paper.

The aim of the article is to compare foreign policy of G. W. Bush jr. and Barack Obama in terms of use of military force. Transition from ground operations to targeted killings is demonstrated on three military operations - Operation Enduring Freedom, Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Inherent Resolve. The shift from bombers to drones had several reasons, mainly changing features of the threat. Authors are asking questions why and how did change the US fight against global terrorism with respect to military technologies and how is this change reflected in US fight against the threat of Islamic state.

On the introduction, the article focuses on clarifying the place and role of counterinsurgency in current military operations. It also deals with the principles of counterinsurgency and their doctrinal comparison within some advanced armies and the NATO. The aim is to highlight some findings related to principles that should be changed,added in doctrine and incorporated into the training of the ACR troops. The result of the analysis and comparison of individual principles with own experience of the author from the mission in Afghanistan are recommendations given for the troop training in the theatre. The implementation of the proposed measures in preparation of the Czech Army units may improve the effectivenessof counterinsurgency in military operations.

This article focuses on answering the question to what extent did the German foreign and security policy change, based on the ISAF mission in Afghanistan, especially when it comes to military deployment abroad. The author identifies and analyses the consequences associated with the German experience in Afghanistan and their influence on the current and future deployment of German armed forces abroad. The attention is given to the German strategic culture of "civilian power" and the question, if Germany still fulfills the attributes connected with this theoretical concept. The author verifies this assumption by means of the role theory concept, which helps to understand the behavior of Germany on the international level.

The aim of the article is to bring inspiration and offer needed recommendations for implementing the scenarios in the defence planning process. The article addresses purpose, development and practical application of scenarios in a national defence planning process, utilizing capability based planning (National Capability Based Defence Planning - NCBDP). During the planning scenarios are used for identification and verification of capability requirements. Scenarios depict main features of the environment in which the armed forces will be employed to execute military missions. Scenarios reflect as well operational concepts in a sense of doctrinal use of armed forces. Furthermore, they offer a possibility to identify and quantify required capabilities in a volatile, difficult to predict, complex, permanently and dynamically changing environment, and reduce level of uncertainty and associated risks. In this regard, scenarios are significant analytical and supporting tool of defence planning with high value added. Correct application of scenarios allows defining a set of required capabilities necessary for success in potential future conflicts. Scenarios enable long-term planning of capabilities development and optimisation as a platform for qualified and well informed decisions at the MoD level on the armed forces character, structure and size with regard to the ambitions and international commitments of the country. In the conclusion the article brings recommendations for the defence planning process improvement by exploiting capability based planning and scenarios. Recommendations provided in the article include doctrinal changes, organizational changes within MoD and General staff, recommendations for updating the education plans for military personnel, recommendations for optimization of the defence planning process as well as for necessary changes in the approach of the defence managers and military leaders to the described method.

This study deals with the responses to recent Syrian conflict in the Czech Republic. The authors introduce particularly activities inside Syrian diaspora, actually formed during the time of communism. Syrians citizens living in the Czech Republic are not homogeneous, which is similar to the situation in Syria. In our country we can find both people loyal to the regime of Ba'ath Party and Bashar al-Assad, and also members of opposition that in fact has divided into two groups, since the mid-2012. The authors introduce reactions of various subjects from the Czech Republic.

At present, it can be seen a tangible progress in the NATO-EU common approach to deal with challenging security issues. Paradoxically, it has been economic recession in combination with growing danger of arising armed conflicts, specifically on the European continent territory, to start up the closer cooperation between NATO and the EU. Logically, the current security situation ended in conclusions that the complementarity between NATO and the EU became a real necessity and only interaction between the Alliance and Union?s security and defence policies could bring required effects, while upholding global and local security stability. The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

The Russian armed forces are influenced by a new concept of possible armed conflict. At present, Russian forces are not preparing themselves to one massive conflict, as in the period of bi-polar world, but the main stress is put on power-projection, into the spheres of Russian interests, i. e. into post-soviet republics. The Russian armed forces ought to be able partake in three regional conflicts simultaneously. That's why organizational and technological changes are presently in motion. The acquisition of French first Mistral-class vessels is an organic part of this process. The theme is particularly topical in the context of the current Ukrainian crisis.

The First World War was a global war centred in Europe that began on 28 July 1914 and lasted until 11 November 1918. From the time of its occurrence until the approach of World War II, it was called simply the World War or the Great War. In America, it was initially called the European War. The immediate trigger for war was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary. This set off a diplomatic crisis. Within weeks, Europe was at war and the conflict soon spread around the world. It was one of the deadliest conflicts in history, paving the way for major political changes, including revolutions in many of the nations involved.