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In 2007 and 2010, this Czech Military Review Vojenské rozhledy published several articles, discussing analytical thinking and analytical methodologies in the field of military intelligence. The authors among others mentioned the methodology ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The methodology is not suitable only for intelligence, but it can be used further for solving a variety of military decision-making problems. The article in its first part describes ACH philosophy, including some academic considerations both by supporters and critics to this methodology. The second part demonstrates an example of its implementation and usage during support other problems tied with decision-making in defence planning process. The method is simple to explain, but difficult to introduce to real practice. The article explains both the theory and modifications of ACH and underlines some pitfalls connected with putting methodology into practice.

The article deals with some aspects of long-term planning in the sector of theMinistry of Defence. Its aim is to stimulate discussion about the methods and processes of long-term planning, to point out some shortcomings in the development of strategic documents in the past. The text also describes the basis for long-term planning process and particularly the role of long-term foresight. The author analyses lessons learned from the developing and implementation of Long-Term Vision of the Ministry of Defence document (2008) and tries to aply them in drafting a new document, The Long-Term Vision for Defence in 2030, is now being prepared under the leadership of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. He also highlights some of the theoretical principles for developing documents in the process of strategic management.

The article is an analysis of the further development of mechanized battalions of Czech forces (ACR). The defence department will have to take a major decision how to replace old tracked infantry combat vehicles (ICVs) BVP-2. Several years ago, it was decided to acquire those vehicles for one brigade, so the best option could be to keep this project on. The acquisition and simultaneous operations of two similar vehicles, wheeled and tracked ones, are not effective for forces of ACR size. The extra costs of operation would not produce an adequate increase in capabilities of mechanized units. The author presents dozens of arguments to support this conclusion and at the end he makes recommendations for the future acquisition strategy in Czech defence department.

In course of action, modern forces ought to be capable to safe living surroundings by the implementation of environmental protection into military planning and decision-making process. Traditionally it protects not only a location around military bases, training areas, but also in all operational area of deployed armed forces. This study therefore deals with methods of environmental protection and the so-called risk management to prevent damages that can't be remediated, both in the field of natural, cultural or historic sights and relicts.

Today, the word Concept is one of most used terms in the framework of long and medium term of defence management. Concept development as a process is mentioned in significant number of departmental regulations and descriptions of activities of organizational bodies of the Ministry of Defence and General Staff. Concept development and Experimentation is a kind of incantation used when we speak about the development of long and medium term strategic documents. This article comprises the analysis of the legal regulations concerning the development of strategic documents. It analyses the implications of the governmental Methodology of mid-term concepts and Methodology of preparation of public strategies for departmental strategic documents.

The article deals with particularly topical problem, the riots with ethnic background. The present situation is compared with history illustrations and with similar recent events abroad. Author's reflections and scenarios outline a variant of state failure and its institutions, with the exception of army. He identifies respective incoming risks, among others tied with the so-called Roma question. Actually, his hypothetical solutions are not backed by the current laws of the Czech Republic. The author comes to the conclusion that army deployment might be used only as an instrument of last resort, "ultima ratio".

The article gives a short review of the catering facility problems. Firstly it divides the facility in to zones. An individual zone is described after with its specifics needs for right function. Secondly it summarizes usable construction systems usually used for catering facility installation. At the end it represents dispositional draft of facility formed from ISO containers.

The polemic by Mr. Luboš Dobrovský in his essay in Military Review, No. 2, 2013, is based upon a critical idea that even though the Czech government approved conclusions and goals set by the White Paper on Defence, the MoD and the General Staff began to fulfil their duties, the government did not carry out its obligations. The author came to the same conclusion same time ago. But he didn't agree with the proposition that the army in a state of emergency. Such a verdict is rather exaggerating, the author believes, as Czech defence department is still able to fulfil both its Alliance commitments, missions abroad, or home assignments, e.g. support to integrated rescue system. What's missing is a critical reflection over economical management. Data, numbers, and facts are attached.

The final extended deadline, established by the Chemical Weapons Convention for the destruction of chemical weapons, passed in 2012. Despite all efforts and enormous amount of funds, the goal to destroy all chemical weapons within this date has not been achieved. The authors enumerate states that this fulfilled this resolution and others that this task did not accomplished, for some reasons. According to the destruction plans, the Russian Federation should complete the destruction by the end of 2015, Libya by the end of 2016, and the United States not until September 2023.

Unlike the real state of affairs, the scenarios for Europe 2010 did not presuppose the rise of financial and economy crises. Political scientists did not perceive the series of terrorist attacks, namely in Great Britain, Spain and Russia. Security questions, home security and defence, came to the foreground more then was originally expected. There are hubs of future power blocks of divided Europe. It is impossible to incorporate all the results and consequences of our presuppositions. Since we want to look into individual, particularly interesting developments, the author recommends to create several teams for individual scenarios, instead of drawing several scenarios by one scholarly team.

The White Paper on Defence was approved by the Government of the Czech Republic on 18 May 2011. The article describes a circumstances of the document development and its substance and role in the family of the defence strategic documents. In addition, the article highlights some important measures of the White Paper that has been implemented in practice. The author who was a member of the committee, responsible for development, and an editor of the White Paper, responds to some voices, claiming that the document has not come up to expectations and it is not usable for the future of the Czech Armed Forces. The author presents his lessons learned from the development and implementation of the document and describes some recommendations for the future.

The control of emergency economic measures, namely state material reserves, is an important part of Czech security system. From the institutional point of view, all is run under the authority of a central institution-the Administration of State Material Reserves (ASMR). This paper deals with its role in the management of state material reserves, reflects problems and consequences resulting from the changes in security surrounding, re-evaluates opinions and views both by experts of state administrations and academic community. Those are the main key questions the study seeks an answer.

This year we marked the 10th anniversary of our full membership in NATO. We've verified that the nation can become a "full fledged member" in eight or ten years at earliest. Signing the treaty, you became "only" a freshman. You must learn everything, from "consensus building" to forming informal coalition. The author of this article, Deputy of the Czech Permanent Representative to NATO, summarizes the history of fulfilling the membership's prerequisites and following difficult process of implementation of fundamentals and requirements, e.g. the so-called NATO legal acquis (Status of Forces Agreement), Planning and Review Process, setting Force Goals, fixing Identification Friend or Foe on Mi-21 aircraft assigned for Air Policing, problems with developing home infrastructure for Host Nation Support. We joined common security planning, took part in NATO Security Investment Programme and Conference of National Armaments Directors. But today's organization is quite different that used to be, the role and missions have changed. We must be prepared to meet them too.

Backed by a heap of articles from the Western Press, author summarizes the recent conflict in the Caucasus. Georgia's position astride the western access route to the Caspian sea's energy reserves and Central Asia give it geopolitical significance. Moreover, Georgia represents exactly what Russia does not want to see on its borders: a country both independent and increasingly democratic. Russian government instead seeks submission, preferably by authoritarian rulers that it can manipulate. In summer 2008, Russia invaded South Ossetia, aimed at locking Georgia out of NATO. Moscow's military operation has far-reaching implications. To leaders in Ukraine and the Baltic states, it sends signals that it seeks to re-establish control in the former Soviet space. How should the West react? The author is a supporter of improving Russia's behaviour by mutual dialogues, negotiations. He sets an example: dispassionate, non-ideological talks between the former Soviet leader M. Gorbachev and an American president George Bush Sr.

The article points out the altered role of intelligence and counterintelligence under the conditions of new security threats and relevant problems of intelligence analysis. Authors compare the theories of the orthodox and revisionist intelligence schools dealing with the detection of surprise attacks and finally outlines solutions related to the training of intelligence analytics. Orthodox views are as follows: surprising attacks are inevitable, such attacks will succeed as they are unpredictable, complex and sophisticated; reformists say that too much attention is paid to various failures, there are many cases in which intelligence prevention was successful. Threat analyses are very complicated; hints are not clear, ambiguous. New threats must be examined and eliminated with cooperation with other force branches, police, integrated rescue system, and others. Last but not least, there is indispensable role of preparation and schooling of intelligence officers.

This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens.

The document "A Secure Europe in a Better World" approved in 2003 has introduced the so-called the European Security Strategy. The authors use this framework to refer to the whole set of organisations, people and activities, both military and civilian, to ensure capabilities to be delivered effectively and efficiently, both in current surroundings and in preparation for the future. They are members of the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which has conducted a wide-ranging research work to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the position of the Czech Republic in European environment. The article illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come-demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology-and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system.

Politicians Raise Support?) by Col. Ing. Tomáš Rak. The fact that nuclear weapons has not been employed for more over 60 years doesn't mean that they are of no use. On the contrary, they still serve as the most effective tool of determent. At present, we do not face some superpower, but a multitude of various small, namely Islamic groups. The nuclear threat has returned in the form of terrorists who, unlike Soviet Union leaders, would not hesitate to use such weapons. We face a very real possibility that the deadliest weapons ever invented could fall into dangerous hands. No treaty, no ban on such weapons, no international law will guarantee that they won't be used by the so-called "non-state actors," potential "rogue states", or messianic groups expecting the end of the world. The author recollects the case of A. Q. Khan, who sold his country's nuclear secrets, helping to increase the proliferation of nuclear technology on a wide scale.

Suicide bombing represents a low-cost, low-tech weapon that is readily available, requires little training, leaves little forensic trace, and strikes fear into the general population. Almost exclusively, suicide bombers emanate from distinct ethnicities and religions; furthermore, recent history indicates that they come from the Arab/Muslim or East Asian cultures. As important as the suicide bombers are the activists and sympathizers who offer them support and comfort. These activists may recoil from committing acts of violence themselves but may sympathize with those who do, and offer moral and material support. This article explores the psychosocial aspects and methods of suicide bombers in general, but with particular focus on those operating in Palestine, Moscow (Chechen guerrillas, 2002), Singar (Iraq 2007).

The paper deals with the assessment of extremism in connection with the Czech Armed Forces. It analyses attitudes of various forms of Czech domestic extremist movements to the military sphere and possible impacts of the infiltration of extremists into the army, namely in time of danger (training militant activities, including paramilitarism, subversion, espionage, etc). The most important problem of the contemporary Czech counter-extremist policy in this area is the rise of neo-Nazi activities in the armed forces and the establishing of extreme right paramilitary units which take interest in the engagement of soldiers. Even though these activities are limited in our country, the author offers overall survey various obscure organizations, having connections to foreign groups sponsoring their Czech counterparts.

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

The major topic of this article is the problem of radical Islam in the context of contemporary as well as historical development in Europe. In the course of several chapters the author describes basic facts of the modern phenomenon of Islamisation, impending over Europe. His study is supported from several sources, e.g. Gadhafi M., Islam taking over Europe (2006); or reports issued by the Netherlands Security and Intelligence Service (2005); Swiss Country Report on Islamisation (2007), etc. There are over 50 million Muslims in Europe, if Turkey is added to the EU, Europe will have another 50 million Muslims. When terrorism can be considered as a danger, Islam should be considered as a risk to generate such a danger. The democratic state is fully entitled to diagnose any kind of "side effects" as a result of Islamic preaching. This is not judging the religion but its effects on the system. The solution is long-lasting: to support cultural integration, because only a few European Muslims are involved politically, or take part in terrorist attacks.

The SALT agreements seem to be outdated, nonetheless the current discussion on the U.S. missile defence systems must be perceived in its complexity and theoretical framework, with AMB treaty as a cornerstone. The article suggests that ABM treaty and Interim Agreement, forming together the outcome of SALT negotiations, demonstrate that rational decisions are fully compatible with arms control system and realist approaches to the international relations. The author supposes that cooperation and mutual trust can be achieved through negotiations and perception of other participants. He also takes into account the impact of Soviet nuclear build-up in 1960s is and its consequences. The important conclusion can be derived from this fact: arms control should be expected more in times of military balance rather that the domination of one world's actor. Key words: disarmament, arms control, mutual assured destruction, and antiballistic missile systems.

The global crisis has gravely affected and continues to affect the lives of people around the planet. It is high time to change the paradigm for interpreting the problems of contemporary societies as well as the ensuing governance. In his reviewed book the author Martin Potůček attempts to answer the question what divides and unites our society. He helped us to understand the nature of this crisis and finds our ways out of it. In closing chapter, Key Challenges, he concludes by proposing some desirable directions for further development: to strengthen people's trust in institutions, to oppose to weakening the role of state. He argues against the concept of higher competitiveness of products in market.

One of main task while preparing new security documents is to identify, analyze and evaluate newly emerging, self-generating security threats. They menace cybernetic, economy, bank, and religious security. The special menace, as for inner security it is lobbyism. Cybernetic threat is today regarded as more dangerous than nuclear strike. The American lived through those experiences in Iraq. Another example is cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 that swamped websites of Estonian organizations, including Estonian parliament, banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters.The attacks triggered a number of military organisations around the world (including NATO) to reconsider the importance of network security to modern military doctrine. There is a paradigm: the more modern country, the more risks are opened. The situation is complicated by the fact that in sophisticated society there is hard to identify attacking enemy. The author underlines that we are the last member nation in the EU that has no official CSIRT (Computer Security Incident Response Team) to react cyber /terrorist attracts.

People must be prepared for unexpected anddangerous situations that must be dealt with immediately. The prerequisite of people training for the emergency situations is their overall preparation. The concept ought to be extending over a relatively long time, well elaborated and coherent. The prerequisite of such preparation is the existence of appropriate laws supporting a lifelong, "biodromaly" conceived educational concept. The readers have a chance to familiarise themselves with results from sociological inquiry, being done at the end of 2010, and with several acts tied with civil emergency preparation.

This article deals with selected security aspects of Israeli maritime border lines. It briefly depicts current organizational structure of the Israeli Navy. It gives an overview of equipment used to safeguard Israeli sovereignty from seaborne threats, including search and secure operations performed against anti-Israeli insurgent organizations and their trafficking lines. In connection to the Gaza Strip blockade, the article examines legitimacy of this controversial approach and its current international consequences. Last but not least, the article looks beyond the security extent of maritime borders and examines Israeli approach as a mean of spreading the national sovereignty over newly explored gas reserves in the eastern Mediterranean area.

Czech dailies and weeklies publicised their analyses of the diplomatic dispatches released by WikiLeaks. Some were concerned in world's politics, but higher attention was paid to 1,271 dispatches from Prague. According to the dispatches, the U.S. Navy wanted to purchase 23 Russian anti-ship missiles to obtain the weapons from Belarus through Ukraine, with a Czech arms dealer. However, the Czech government decided to derail the plan by not granting the Czech middleman the needed permission to export weapons from a dictatorship like Belarus. Various cables also detailed a dispute in the area of arms technology. Some observations from the dispatches dealing with characteristics of Czech prominent politicians are amusing. Overall, the United States evaluated the CzechRepublic positively, as an economically mature country and as an ally.

The article deals with the evaluation of military expenditures of European Union's four selected countries in the period of 2001-2008. Among examined countries belong the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia and Slovenia. The term military expenditures is used by many users, so the article defines first this term and also sources from which the authoress collected data for evaluation. The main source of statistical data about military expenditures is the Stockholm international institute, namely its research yearbooks.