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The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

This paper is derived from "Exploring the Future Operating Environment", published in Joint Force Quarterly, April 2018. The article was presented at the Defense & Strategy 2018 conference, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno on 4-6 June 2018.

The paper deals with the concept of proxy wars in the region of the Middle-East and the role of intelligence services in it. In the current conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, many external actors and powers interfere using (not only) their intelligence services for the defence of their national interests in afflicted states, often even combating each other on a territory of a different state. The main goal of the paper is to introduce the concept of proxy war and analyse the role of intelligence services in the ongoing conflicts in the defined area.

The establishment of the Permanent Structured Co-operation (PESCO) in defence in 2017 is one of the most important European initiatives of recent years, aiming at enhancing effectiveness in addressing security challenges and advancing towards further integrating defence cooperation within the EU framework. The article describes the genesis of PESCO and explains its functioning, including its legal framework, objectives, the role of the main actors and the dynamics of the whole process. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the scope and strength of the more binding commitments that the participating Member States have decided to fulfil in the name of strengthening Europe's defence under the umbrella of the Common Security and Defence Policy.

This article analyzes strategic engagement of the Russian Federation and the United States of America in the South Caucasus in four phases of development from the end of the Cold War until present day. The first phase covers early nineties, the second is from mid-nineties to 2003, the third from 2004 to 2008 and the fourth from 2009 to 2016/2017. There are three key trends during the examined period. First, Russia has permanent strategic interests in the South Caucasus due to maintaining its own state security and securing the position of the most prominent external actor in the region. Second, Russia's weakness and active engagement of the US/NATO are barriers to realizing Russia's state interests. Third, the South Caucasus is strategically more significant to Russia than the US/NATO.

This article aims to highlight the most important changes within the transatlantic defense relations. The central argument is that NATO is gaining a conditional nature, transforming collective defense into a form of transactional defense. The study utilizes Paul Kennedy's notion of "imperial overstretch" to explain the strategic context of the transatlantic defense relations. After this, the analysis highlights how the transatlantic defense relations gained a transactional character that is resonating to this American "imperial overstretch". The second part of the study focuses on the latest developments concerning the US military presence in Europe and highlights their transactional character, thus enabling the emergence of transactional defense within NATO.

This article describes the basic terms used in prognostics (future studies, forecasting the future, prognosis, prediction, expert) and introduces selected prognostic methods and techniques which could be applied in security area (brainstorming, focus group, trend extrapolation, Delphi method, scenarios etc.). The basic classifications and prognosis typologies are mentioned as well. Particular phases of prognosis making are described too. For the Czech security community the prognosis making has an important potential whose outcomes (of particular surveys) should be manifest in following years. This text has only tried to outline selected methods and techniques for their potential application.

The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate "counter-terrorism" laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

The paper is focused on the area of defence sources in the Czech Republic. Within an analysis of the actual situation in military spending in the Czech Republic, some potential approaches are defined to enable the reasonable and transparent allocation of resources for national defence. Based on these approaches, three courses of action are derived in order to deal with current resources inadequacy and instability in defence.

The article is available only in the Czech language. For more information please contact editors.

The issue of terrorism is becoming increasingly important on the level of social, economic, political and security. The threat of terrorism affects at the same time, societal and cultural events. Professional and academic discussion addresses the causes and possible consequences of this phenomenon. To understand the implications of terrorism, it is necessary to look at this issue from the perspective of terms of its financing. This review study aims to define the term financing of terrorism on the one hand, but also to identify possible sources of financing of terrorism, including the most used payment methods by terrorist organizations. This study also leads a discussion on the efforts and effectiveness of the various authorities in the fight for detecting terrorism, especially in relation to the detection of its financial flows. The study also defines the possible pitfalls in the fight against terrorism and detecting its sources of financing and attempts to outline possible alternatives while increasing success in this fight.

Use of child soldiers by rebel armed forces has been growing in recent years. In comparison to preceding conflicts, main reasons for their use have changed significantly - at the present time, children have become highly efficient psychological weapon in battles against the military from developed countries. This may have momentous consequences not only for the given children but also for professional soldiers. Fighting against child soldiers can indisputably affect the soldiers' capability to discharge their duties. Furthermore, they have to cope with many individual moral dilemmas. The article will look into potential moral aspects regarding confrontation between child soldiers and members of professional armed forces. In the following section, training of professional soldiers and preparation of military mission will be explored. Subsequently, weaknesses which are crucial to forestall in the future will be outlined.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence in Brno, the Czech Republic. The main objective of this contribution is to assess the evolution of the Czech defence policy (CDP) since the last summer 2016. The main impetuses for the CDP evolution were provided by the NATO Summit in Warsaw, new European Global Strategy including the ambition to enhance defence cooperation among the EU member states and the pattern of dynamics in our security environment. The authors analysed the key change drivers (KCDs) and measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several recommendations to enhance the responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and the Armed Forces both in short- and long-term time span.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

Review:Jan Ludvík: Nuclear Asymetry and Deterrence. Theory, policy and history. Routledge, 2016.ISBN: 978-1-138-69619-8(hbk). ISSN: 978-1-315-52517-4 (ebk).

In the shadow of the profound transformation of the security environment, the long rejected idea of a multi-speed Europe in defence is taking shape. What is the Czech Republic's stance in this context? Is it ready to adapt and make defence one of the government's priorities, or will it only passively observe the events around it and at some point tolerate another intervention or occupation of another power? The article outlines several practical recommendations to the Czech Republic in the area of military capabilities, armaments, defence research, defence industry and market, which could provide guidance in this process.

comprehensive cooperation within reliable security partnerships. Thus, regional tailored military cooperation has gained more importance than ever before in order to tackle various threats and challenges and to strengthen crisis management capabilities. Therefore, Austria launched the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) in 2010 to foster regional security cooperation and to promote modernisation of military resources. Two years later, Austria co-founded the EU Mountain Training Initiative, which closely coordinates training and education with the NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence in Slovenia. This paper aims at analysing and discussing current initiatives and possible ways of improving Central European security cooperation between NATO member states and Austria.

The paper outlines several recommendations for strengthening the institutional framework of the analytical support function for credible defence management. Recommendations are drawn based on the outcome of the institutional research project named Strategic Alternatives conducted by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence (CSMSS). The multi-objective research focuses on organisational arrangement of the analytical support function within the overall ministry of defence organisational architecture of several countries (Canada, Norway, Sweden) as well as the NATO structure and management (in this case, the main focus embraces the analytical support to defence planning). Analytical support to defence decision making process in these countries enjoys a long-term tradition which goes back to the period of WWII. The way the analytical function is understood is highly relevant also for the enhancement of credible defence management in the Czech Republic and its Ministry of Defence.

The paper assesses the conceptual framework for Czech defence policy formulation in the wake of a rapid change in its security environment after Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the subsequent Russian support for separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces and growing instability in the Middle East and North Africa. The article examines key measures taken in the political, military, administrative, economical and societal domains in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of Czech defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several strategic level recommendations to enhance responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and Armed Forces as one of its most significant components both in short- and long-term perspective.

The NATO common funding has already been used to finance common needs of the Alliance for 65 years and has contributed substantially to its readiness, cohesion and solidarity. A number of reform measures have been approved, and in most cases already implemented, over the period of last several years with the aim of more effective, economical, efficient a transparent use of NATO common funds and the introduction of modern financial management practices. NATO common funding is therefore a live and well-functioning system. Nevertheless, there is still a room for further improvements. The aim of this article is to describe the role of NATO common funding, its basic parameters and tools, its development in the past, and current and future challenges.

The article describes an approach to development of a national military capability requirements database and its relationship with reference units which will be finally used for assessing capabilities of existing force units. Outcomes from recently completed analyses lead to the conclusion that the single set of capability requirements as specified in the Bi-SC Agreed Capability Codes and Capability Statements, can be taken as a key stone for developing a national database of capability requirements. A due adaptation of this document to the Czech MOD allows getting a complex frame of capabilities which force units shall manage to achieve given operational tasks both in the context of a national or multinational task force group. Consequently such a database can be exploited for setting up a mechanism for capability assessment.

Despite the attempts of labeling hybrid warfare as a new form of warfare or even as a factor that is changing the nature of war, hybrid warfare is part of a war from the Antiquity to the present day. The essence of hybrid warfare is in parallel use of regular and irregular military forcesand different means of pressure by a power unwilling to openly attack a weaker opponent. Information dimension is analyzed in the cases of hybrid warfare against Croatia (1990-91) and Ukraine (2014). In both cases the key target of hybrid warfare was social cohesion of the attacked countries. In the Croatian case, despite a strong propaganda campaign followed by the direct and indirect use of military force, the attacking side was unable to break social cohesion of the majority of Croatia's population. In the Ukrainian case, the lack of social cohesion has prevented organization of the efficient response to hybrid warfare waged by the Russian Federation. Both cases also indicate the significance of national identity in preserving a society's social cohesion.

This article deals with the research of the internationalization of conflicts, trying to examine this phenomenon from the theoretical perspective and as a definition. Then the term of internationalization of conflict is conceptualized in order to be applied to a chosen internationalized internal armed conflict. The text also deals with various actors intervening in the internationalized conflict. They are divided into external and internal actors, while their interventions during civil war can be multilateral or unilateral. The concept of the conflict internationalization is also compared with the concept of the proxy war. The closeness of both terms can be confusing for many researchers and their division is one of the important outcomes of this article. There is also a typology of internationalized internal armed conflict types in the text as well as identification of reasons for military actions against a neighbouring state in civil war. At the end, two case studies of Syrian and Yemeni civil wars are introduced to the reader in the framework of the conflict internationalization concept. The text itself is a conference contribution and it has no ambition of bringing new scientific findings and extending knowledge. Rather, it presents a general survey of the examined phenomenon, which can be developed and researched by social sciences based on case studies.

The aim of the article is to present a synthesis of findings from both analyses and their application while conceiving a proposal of methodology for military capability assessment of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic. The proposed approach to capability assessment stems from principles of the NATO´s J-DARTS (Joint Defence Planning Analysis and Requirements Tool Set) and EU´s SAEP (Scrutinising, Assessing, Evaluating and Prioritising Process) when the main attention was focused on the phase of matching current capabilities of force units against capability requirements, follow-on identification of shortfalls and their prioritisation. The degree of priority should primarily qualify the level of operational risk stemming from potential engagement of force units in an operation.

The article brings a "Condition-If-Then" construct as a proven protocol for writing risk statement and its application into assessing risks related to capability gaps identified during the defense planning processAuthors discuss utility of "Common approach" and "Impact averse approach" to risk rank ordering as a tool for ordering risks according to their importance. Using the discussed tools enables the planners to run risk assessment that sets preconditions for prioritizing the Force Development Options (FDOs) and for minimizing the impact of capability gaps on conduct of future operations. The ORAMF and the application of the given protocol for writing risks are some of the building blocks of the defense planning process, offering a toolset for reinforcement of the defense planning of the Czech Republic.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

In course of action, modern forces ought to be capable to safe living surroundings by the implementation of environmental protection into military planning and decision-making process. Traditionally it protects not only a location around military bases, training areas, but also in all operational area of deployed armed forces. This study therefore deals with methods of environmental protection and the so-called risk management to prevent damages that can't be remediated, both in the field of natural, cultural or historic sights and relicts.

The purpose of this article is to deal with Course of Actions development (COA). Attention is paid to ensure a common understanding of COA process. The article broadens the vision and offers deep insights for its readers. Moreover, the war game was described as a method of refining or modifying the COA. It has also been emphasized the commander and staff consider each COA advantages and disadvantages. The Czech Army personnel training and preparation should steadily and deliberately bring improvements into the field of operational planning capability within forces´ command levels. In order to improve operational planning knowledge, it is recommended to study AJP-5 Operational Planning Doctrine and ACO Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive.

This article describes the doctrinal determination and definitions of the term Actionable Intelligence and the impact of this specific intelligence concepton commander's decision-making process. The part of this report deals with the position of Actionable Intelligence in intelligence branch, concretely in connection with the intelligence disciplines and particular stages within intelligence cycle. There is also the accentuation of interconnection to the importance of intelligence information sharing, early warning systems and force protection on tactical level. The next part of this article is focused on the impact of intelligence support on commander's decision-making processes.

The objective of this article is to answer the question to which extent a respective concentration on Alliance approaches is really indispensable. A substance of the answer is to be found in the outcomes of analysis made on defence planning processes of NATO nations and EU member states. This analysis indicates to which extent national planning processes correlate with principles of NDPP and EU capability development. The analysis outcomes point out a significant diversity of approaches to national defence planning processes, the fact which stems from different interests of their national security and defence policies and, at the same time, the outcomes substantiate that the centre of gravity of national approaches does not lean on implementing principles of NDPP but on achieving outputs of the NDPP.