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Summary of Security Com174 munity Views - Part One. Despite the fact that most of the predictions made in the early 20th century did not realized, there are still plenty of arguments for drawing security prognoses as the only method assessing synthetic alternatives of future progress. The future is not unequivocally determined, as the all comprising development is strongly influenced by subjective motives. We must have scenarios upon which we can act, operate, namely in the field of security. The government ought to set clearly our security agenda, where and why we are going to make possible military engagement. All further actions are developing from those prognoses, i.e. buying tanks, helicopters, parachutes, armoured vehicles, etc. The first part of this security study covers several predictions containing even some controversial visions. They are based upon the opinion survey done among members of Czech military community. The field of investigation comprises EU, US, North Korea, Iran, Iraq, Africa, Asia, even hypothetic Russia-China conflict, terrorism, weapons of mass destruction, and the like.

This article examines depth in the nonlinear battlefield and how planners might develop operational effects to defeat insurgencies. The former field manual stated that depth was the extension of operations in time, space and resources. This is a decidedly linear construction of the battlefield based on industrialized warfare between conventional enemies. The Global War on Terrorism operating environment is both nonlinear and non-contiguous. The enemy has no national borders or traditional infrastructure. If we understand cognitive depth, we can develop ways to paralyze the insurgent system or produce operational shock. Colonel John A. Warden III, an architect of the Persian Gulf War air campaign, introduced Five Rings Model as a methodology for successfully attacking and paralyzing a conventional enemy system in depth. An adaptation of this model depicts tangible targets that together constitute depth in the insurgent battle space. Source: Is There a Deep Fight in a Counterinsurgency by Lee K. Grubbs and Michael J. Forsyth, Military Review, July-August 2005.

The professional base for tactical and operational levels of US ground forces and German Federal Armed Forces are the following manuals: US Army Field Manual 100/5 "Operations", since 2001 being labelled as "Field Manual 3-0", and German HDv 100/100 "Truppenfuhrung 2000". Both manuals were drafted in a closed cooperation. The basic principles of German manual Truppenfuhrung 2000 were imitated and copied by the Netherlands armed forces and partly, to a certain measure, also by other NATO nations. Rules of Field Manual 3-0 were tested in peace operations, in the fight against international terrorism in Afghanistan and during the first phase of Second War in Iraq. In fact, the operations of US forces indirectly proved practicability and effectiveness of nearly identical German field rules and manuals, consequently command principles, including those of the so-called nation building. Based upon an article by MG Christian E.O. Millotat in 3/2006 Osterreichische Militärische Zeitschrift, No 3/2006.

The world is full of unsolvable problems. Every key problem has turned now into multinational one; in fact, this can be handled only if it becomes a transnational problem. Security development is multifaceted process tied with the whole globe. The author recapitulates several models or paradigms that influenced a lot our global strategical thinking. The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives by Zbigniew Brzezinski; The Choice: The Global Domination or Global Leadership of by the same author; The Clash of Civilizations by Samuel P. Huntington; Avin Toffler's The Third Wave; Kauffman's Fourth Law: Prolegomenon to General Biology (Investigations); Order Out of Chaos by I. Prigogine and I. Stengers. Dr. Volner says that the contemporary humankind has its last chance to push such a solution that might lead us out the world of dangers and threats to start building up a balanced and lasting security, but he warns against waging "small preventive wars", as the only way to safeguard the peace.

The practice of a company sending work to outside factories to reduce production costs is called outsourcing. Outsourcing is one of many methods that might help defence department to fulfil a number of various tasks that either can't be accomplished within the armed forces or such work or services can be obtained at low-costs in civil sector. The authors propose several practicable techniques using dynamic outsourcing model to identify prospective services to support given transformation process.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

Security situation has been changing all over the world, so has in regional territories. It is necessary for us to create systematically new safety culture with regards to contemporary knowledge and experiences. The Czech Republic contribution to the safety of democratic states must meet their expectations; prospective security studies will have to bring new knowledge and technology which, first of all, will increase the level of general capabilities of the Czech Republic and at the same time to take into consideration the needs of national economy and Czech environment. Capital investments into security research are necessary as a basic input for the safety preparedness level of the CR. For these purposes it is desirable to establish security research that will be able to produce ideas and technologies which will sustain and renew the Czech Republic safety in changing conditions, among others taking note of a Seventh Framework Programme of EU for research,

This article presents not only an non-conventional approach towards psychology of military groups, but also offers the deep insight into British way of military thinking. This article is concerned with cohesion in its broadest sense. The term cohesion is usually used to describe one of the many contributions to morale. British military doctrine says that manoeuvres approach is an approach to operation in which shattering the enemy's overall cohesion and will to fight is paramount. The cohesion in this context is being used to describe the complex interaction of the physical, moral and conceptual components of fighting. A thorough understanding of the cohesion between people would enhance their fighting power. The good leadership is the means by which an understanding of what enables cohesion can be used to bring it about. Source: Human Cohesion; Shock and Surprise on the Battlefield (D. Rowland, D. Roney, J. Storr), British Army Review No 137, 2005.

As the EU is conducting its third military operation, the EUMS has become a key player in the development of the European Security and Defence Policy. In order to provide political control and strategic direction in a crisis, the European Council (Nice, December 2000) decided to establish new permanent political and military structures within the Council of the European Union: PSC-Political and Security Committee, EUMC-European Union Military Committee, EUMS-European Union Military Staff. The EUMS is responsible for peacekeeping tasks, tasks of combat forces in crisis management (including peacemaking), and further tasks identified in the European Security Strategy, such as joint disarmament operations, support for third countries in combating terrorism and security sector reform. As the only permanent integrated military structure of the EU, the EUMS has become the military linchpin of the EU. (Truppendienst, Bundesheer,

The concept of development of professional army and mobilization of armed forces of the CR in conditions of a new framework source frame presupposes to introduce "process management" with the Ministry of Defence. Although this tendency is not new, mentioned concept is not generally known, so the author would like to make clearer its roots and reasons its introduction. The success of economic management lies in managing time, quality tied with costs of running processes, evaluating indicators of accountancy, activity-based costing and activity-based management. Our goal is not to evaluate costs, effectivity, but our objective is to constitute departmental economy system with the aspiration to guarantee continually economical rationality (overall economy, effectivity, usefulness) of its processes, activities and performances.

Antiballistic defence systems could be defined as a secondary defensive response to ballistic threats, against existing, projected or planned ballistic military hardware. In a way, it is a sort of deterrence weapon, because such defence discourages opponents form the development of offensive missiles. The author of this article, the former deputy defence minister, Maj-Gen. (ret), specifies three relevant antimissiles system: ALTBM-NATO Active Layered Theatre Ballistic Missile Defence; NATO MD-NATO Missile Defence; and USA MD-USA Missile Defence. The purpose of American antiballistic defence is to counterbalance potential strokes by limited numbers of ballistic missiles, blasted off from both enemy and rogue states and those launched by accident. Allegedly, the Iranians are developing ballistic missiles with the range of 4,000 km. With the reference to the fact that the distance Prague-Teheran is about 3,400 km, and such missiles could constitute an eminent danger even for the Czech Republic, not only for the continental United States, this issue is widely discussed in Czech mass media.

At present, the current reform of our armed forces is oriented towards qualitative changes. The Brigade of Logistics Support is going to be the unit designated for transportation, maintenance and repair, technological control of arms and vehicles, it must be capable of fluent supplying advances positions, namely by propellants, ammunitions, and further dozens of tasks in frame of joint task groups (National Support Element) or as a HNS (Host National Support). All units will be connected by multifunctional logistics informational system. Logistics system must fulfill its tasks even in time of peace, and thus be prepared for time of crises. The operational engagement in the early 21st century will require light expeditional forces capable of easy and rapid deployment. The logistics support ought to be more mobile, more integrated, more compatible and more precise, with the quick accession to spare parts and maintenance support.

For many years we have been talking about simulators/trainers. The first phase of this process ended in 1998 by publishing "The Concept of Introducing Simulation and Trainer Technology". This year, in 2005, two simulation centres, in Brno and Vyškov, are opened. We elaborated new programmes for the preparation of mechanised and armour units. In these days the Instruction Book is printed and very soon it will be distributed into respective units and institutions of ACR. The author is a strong supporter of exploiting simulators. He knows from his own experiences that the quality of training is much better and soldier's skills grow in high speed. To understand this question better, the author enumerates several time-schedules for simulator training and recommends few time-tested procedures and methods of exercises. He believes that once you try to use simulators, you will see how advantageous this method is. The simulators can be used not only for practicing combat situations, but also for operations other than war. But this theme will be treated next time.

This article informs readers about basic ISO standards (International Organization for Standardization), series 9000, and about terminology f lowing from ČSN EN ISO 9000:2001 standards. Fundamental part of the report is a relevant Army of Czech Republic specifics analysis and model implementing proposals of quality management system into a command and control structure of the army. It is favourable for the forces to use above mentioned systems (norms, terminology), especially in logistics. It enables us to follow suppliers/contractors to guarantee the highest quality and effectivity of products and services bought for military. NATO uses among others norms AQAP (Allied Quality Assurance Publications) that were introduced even in our country. Processes are identified in a way broader then in terms of mere ?quality?. Excellence model under EFQM (European Fund For Quality Management) is a voluntary system that can be used for the effective building of a ?small? army, reduced in size, structure, and personnel, in accordance with the approved concept of rebuilding the Czech Army.

Under the definition, the present management covers leading the people, implementation of tasks, processes, so that the organization could achieve set prospective targets. Its structure in the ACR is pyramidal and it is divided into vertical and horizontal elements, so is economic management. The purpose of this article is to outline orientation in the education scheme of new professional soldiers - economic experts - to make easier to integrate them into everyday life in units and institutions of the ACR.

The China's impact on world affairs is growing and will grow further in decades to come. Those years will be critical for Taiwan, and for its relationship with other states. Three related factors determine the texture of this interaction: the policies evolving in Beijing, internal developments on Taiwan, and the international environment. Beijing has offered Taipei several proposals for reunification. The proposals, including the recent "one state, two systems" proposal, allow Taipei to maintain its social and economic system, its armed forces and its unofficial ties with foreign countries. China's grand strategy is to make war while avoiding the battle. Therefore, Taiwan is to be persuaded that the acceptance of "One China" principle is vitally important for preventing the Taiwanese independence. Otherwise, People's Armed Forces will open an invasion to Taiwan by three successive attacks: (1) high precise medium-range ballistic missiles DF-21C with the aim to suppress air defence; (2) the second stroke would be massive attack with short-range precise missiles; (3) the last stroke ought to be done by cruise missiles. This essay is adapted from articles by Mary C. Fitzgerald and Eric A. McVadon, Armed Forces Journal 11/2005.