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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

The article depicts the methods of logistical support to combat units of the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr), deployed in Afghanistan. Professionally trained and prepared personnel are capable to meet requirements of forces in ISAF operations. The centralizations of composite logistical services can guarantee the lowering of payments and expenses in logistics. Such arrangement makes logistic activities more economical, namely by taking over of mechanisms used in civilian economy sphere. This method is called "focused logistics". It is used for logistical support of small contingents. Its characteristic feature is interconnection of logistical data and transport technologies, rapid crisis response, and the ability of logistical support during all combat and non-combat activities.

In recent years both authoresses took part in several important international terminology meetings: European Association for Lexicography (EURALEX), International Conference and Exhibition Dedicated to Defence Training, Education and Simulation (ITEC), and finally the highest Alliance terminology forum: NATO Terminology Programme. In our country this subject is under the authority of Defence Standardisation, Codification and Government Quality Assurance Authority. All problems are incorporated in the Terminology Programme of Defence Department. It deals with STANAG 3680 implementations, MoD's standardisation policy, standardisation terminology process. The most representative terminology body within the Army of the Czech Republic is the Terminology Conference of MoD, traditionally held in the premises of the Defence University Brno.

The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document.

Risk management covers the identification, assessment, and prioritisation of risks, which is followed by coordinated preventive operations to minimize negative impacts on society. The most demanding is the so-called risk assessment (risk identification, risk analysis, risk evaluation). The Risk Catalogue consists of introductory page, and twenty cards for risks register. With the assistance of this catalogue, defence analysts acquire general knowledge about number of risks and their frequency. The level of risk is calculated by summation according to its probability, gravity, and unwanted effects. In case of defence department, actual tasks are assigned to manage to Defence Ministry, Division, Branch, and Section accordingly. Possible risks are represented at a chart accompanying the article. The purpose of Risk Catalogue, its principles, guidelines for implementation, is to make the work of analysts easier.

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

The definitions of the geospatial support used in different NATO missions and at command levels are very similar. However, the real content varies and it is affected by particular command level and the territory supported. The article describes the structure and manning of the Geographic Section at the HQ KFOR Pristina, Kosovo, and the Geographic Cells of all KFOR Multinational Task Forces. The author discusses the changes on both the customer and request sides and their changes caused by a recent transition of KFOR to the "Deterrent Presence" operations. Our soldiers work in leading positions and specialist occupations. Since 2003 the Geographical Service (GeoSl) has been regularly occupying geographical posts at KFOR Command Pristina. Those positions are prestigious, recognized by all NATO geographical community.

After 1989 public opinion polls have become inseparable part of examining our society. By analysing aggregate response data over time, we can see trajectories into the future. This might help MoD officials in decision-making processes, planning long-term developments. The "Army and Public" poll is concentrated on the attitudes of Czech population to topics such as the prestige of a professional soldier, military profession, NATO membership, confidence in public administration, last but not least, the Czech missions abroad. Positive mindsets appeared namely after 1996-97, when Czech army helped during catastrophic flood. In assessing period 2006-2009 most of respondents agreed with the statement that foreign missions proved the qualities of our army, their approval with our engagement in Afghanistan and Iraq rose significantly (by 33,1 per cent), attitudes against Kosovo were unbalanced.

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers.

At present, MoD department prepares a new method of economic control: budgeting by objectives. The process has two levels. The fi rst level covers all sources control, the second one is restricted to budgeting methods. Our defence department is under the pressured of continual budget cuts, so the leading defence representatives should welcome this new technique which will clearly and distinctly present results of limited defence budgets, both for the army by itself and for country defence. Targeted budgeting will be oriented towards outward institutions (parliament) and inside activities (within defence department). Departmental objectives are to be taken as integrative, supported by IT system linked up with state treasury, offering reliable data about costs and expenses within the Chapter of the Ministry of Defence.

The proponents of Revolution in Military Affairs claim that modern military technology will lift a "fog of war". In this article the term "fog of war" is described and illustrated in a work of Carl von Clausewitz who is supposed to introduce this term, used also in the famous novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. These classics show us that uncertainty and chance, in other words fogs of war, are essential to human mentality. They will be present as long as war remains within a scope human endeavour. Emphasizing that military technology is equal to lifting the "fog of war" can lead to situation in which only trained commanders are supposed be able perfectly address problems in "chessboard" of war or computer simulators, but they will unable to manage a real world full of chaos, as they not used to count with uncertainties.

The article summarizes the results of sociological research into organizational culture in the ACR. It should create the picture of military organization, perhaps point at potential dysfunctions and thus to help to their correction. Respondents's opinions on remunerations were detected, in respondents places of work, in combination with their expectancy, anticipations what military service might bring to them. Two thirds professional soldiers have positive attitudes towards interpersonal relations at their working places. The worst position on the scale had the chance to work with the latest technologies and to start a professional career, i.e. to reach important positions. The culture of sustenance, sports facilities were evaluated positively. The lowest rating was allocated to arms equipment, furnishing and quality of garrison quarters. Respondents were also unsatisfied with high level of bureaucratic procedures and formalization.

Since 2008 national security institutions such as police, fi re brigades or armed forces have been confronted with the lack of manpower. There is impending risk of decreasing in population between 15-24 years, and as those key executive institutions are based upon employees' principle, this fact might disenable each national security institution, supposing this risk would be underestimated. Recruiting campaigns are not sufficient enough. In the near future, this is probably going to infl uence so far strict criteria for recruiting military personnel. According to the author, demographic ageing thus represents one of risks, but up to now the offi cial documents by Czech MoD have not reflected this situation.

This study is based on a paper presented at the conference with the same heading taking place on January 8, 2009. First, the authors enumerate starting points of Czech defence and security polity together with key factors influencing their developments. The whole scale of new threats-from WMD and ballistic proliferation to cyber attack and even non intentional threats like climate change and pandemia-are to be addressed not only in NATO but also in the EU. Existing states of affairs are gradually reflected by Czech security and defence documents: Security Strategy 1999, 2001, 2003; Military Strategy 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008. In this historical context we joined NATO defence alliance and took part in peacekeeping missions abroad. Previous twenty years when we lived in peace could be regarded as a challenge to build Czech statehood. There is no time like a present. Only the future will show us whether we mastered it as much as we could.

At the beginning of August, Defence Minister Alexander Vondra announced his intention to give rise to the White Report of Defence as a document constituting clear vision of country's defence. The Paper will constitute a major overhaul of Czech defence and security policy and will set out the path to more modern, compact and reactive security and defence forces. By cutting the overall number of defence personnel, restructuring the defence estate will achieve cost reductions allowing to address more effectively the challenges and threats of the globalized world. It will allocate a substantial budget for defence, in line with the priorities and choices made for her defence capabilities. It will further reflect themes not mentioned before, such as relations between Common European Defence Policy and NATO alliance, new dimensions of civic security in cases of natural disasters, pandemic, or last but not least - terrorist attacks. The Czech White Report is going to make good use of similar documents of Allied nations.

Animals have been used for military purposes from the ancient world to nowadays. Horses, elephants, mules and camels were carrying supplies and took part in battles. Dogs were trained for securing livestock and military camps. Soviet army used them as live mines during World War II. The U.S. Army explored the possibility of using bats as live incendive devices. Even the terrorists could use animals for destroying chosen targets in the same way armies used to do. The deployment of animals would be advantageous for any terrorist group because security forces would not expect this kind of attack. Up to now, there have been just a few cases of abusing animals by terrorists, e.g. for bomb laden mules or dogs carcasses which hide explosive devices. But animals could also help with the fight against terrorism, for example dogs or bluegill fish.

Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

The idea of this enquiry into Czech Army logistics was to prove that even under hard conditions originated in permanently changing army concepts, the army logistics still keeps its high standard and responsibility. During transformation, an appropriate organization structure has been created, with working mechanism of logistics support, using motivated and rationale source exploitation. The purpose of an array of transformation in defence sector was to introduce not only new and effective army structure, compatible with NATO armies, but also to change the system of fi nancing forces. The funding ought to be more economical. The article is backed by a longterm study and observation of logistics development in defence sector.

The article is focused on issue of hybridisation of Al Qai'da in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North Africa, and its implications for European countries. The process of hybridisation is being conceived as growing nexus and convergence between violent non-state actors, while these processes could be in this case identified mainly in issues of use of kidnappings and secondary also reported involvement of AQIM in regional smuggling, mainly drugs, activities through Sahel and Saharan region to Europe. Regarding GSPC background, AQIM could be in long term theoretically able to re-establish its financial and supporting networks in Europe via cooperation with organized crime, which were largely disrupted after major crackdowns by security forces between 2004-2007. Event though a direct Al Qai'da attack in Europe is-according to the author-excluded, the purpose of this article to draw our attention to an eventuality of rebirth of European operation network of AQIM operational predecessor, i.e. GSPC.

Such exercises are regular part of European exercise process that in periodical cycles examines individual capacities of solving crisis situations, conducting crisis operations under methods developed by the EU. European training process does not cover only the preparation of military units, but also those of civil elements (police, rescue teams, diplomats). Since 2007 the exercises have been ran according to a common scenario "ALISIA", with the purpose to practise crisis operations control by commanders and staffs of EU nations, without any means and elements or support by NATO. European exercise process allows to the EUMS to organize and harmonize two exercises of solving crisis situations in a year. Five members of the Czech Army took part in the exercise MILEX 09 last year. They were involved in the operational planning process at the EU OHQ Specialist Staff, CJ2, CJ4, CJ5 and CJ7 departments. The article is mostly based on the experiences of Czech offi cers at the EU OHQ LARISSA.

The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment.

The author summarises most common and repeated mistakes of graduated officers after leaving military schools. Junior officers are practically in the same position as young manager in civil life, so we can find some analogies in civil managerial leadership. Civil manager face practically the same problems and situations. There are various mistakes that junior officers ought to be warned. Such educational instructions and leadership should be implemented into military schools' curricula. Backed by a vast amount of studied literature, the author offers his own solution. He makes use of five myths by Linda Hill, professor at Harvard Business School. The problem is to avoid extreme leadership styles: dictatorlike and benevolent ones.

The Combined Joint Exercise was focused on the European approach to crisis management operations and involved an annual exchange of students and directing staffs between of the Higher Command and Staff Colleges from France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom and Spain. The aim of this article is to provide knowledge and personal experience of its author based on his own participation in this exercise at the Escuela Superior de las Fuerzas Armadas (ESFAS) Madrid. The purpose of the exercise was to foster the understanding, mutual knowledge and dialogue among the offi cers of the aforementioned colleges through the practice of operational planning. Among general information describing the character of the exercise, the article defines some areas of the operational art, namely Operational Planning Process, Operational Design, Decisive Point Concept and Centre of Gravity Analysis.

The problem of allocation of defence sources and their effective spending during recruiting is analyzed by means of modelling and simulation of economic indicators to support of decisional processes of defence planning and arising effectiveness of defence sources in Czech environment. The authors present an example that illustrates the monitoring costs in recruiting. At present, we have no accomplished internally tied system of economic indicators, the article therefore proposes such indicators which could describe continuance in recruiting process, by means of which we shall be able to calculate its financial costs.

From economic point of view, the army of every nation spends immense sources from the state budget. To spent sources economically, the officers - managers economists have to be educated in economic science, i.e. they ought to acquire proper economic knowledge, systematically, during his military studies, in army college, or defence university. One of many things the ACR is missing is an economic course explaining army officials above all how to find adequate proportion between costs and incomes, not to make decision only intuitively.

NSIP-NATO Security and Investment Programme presents an outstanding field of cooperation among Alliance nations and are the fundamental pillar for planning their common defence. The programme serves for securing necessary sources for investments in building, renovation and establishing air and navy bases, strategic depots, core radar systems, and the like. It also supports individual national commands. The article shortly summarizes the history of NSIP, cites examples of its implementation and formulates proposals how to better utilize common sources of this programme. The Czech Republic belongs among states that still enjoy benefits from common funds, particularly in the connection with the building backbone NATO airports. The genuine contributors are Canada, the U.S., and Belgium; at the head of benefit states are Turkey, Greece, and Portugal. It is recommended for Czech representatives at the HQ Allied Command Transformation to increase number of them in decisionmaking staff elements to prevent administrative complications with allocation of approved investments.

General View by Doc. Dr. Jiří Nedbal, CSc. When we prepare activities/exercises of military units, we can make use of theory of asymetric information that offers wide scope of decision variants. We can use PERT method which is not very difficult to understand. This can help us to disclose hidden reserves, sources, problems. We also could take over experience from other armies. It is important now, when percentage allocated from defence budged is still shrinking.