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The goal of this paper is to determine if it is likely for Turkey to remain a stable country that will avoid serious internal conflicts and violent conflicts abroad. The paper examines long-term cultural and civilizational variables of cosmopolitanism and rationality. It examines indicators that are more immediately associated with the escalation of an internal conflict: violent criminality, youth unemployment rate, income inequality, corruption perception, and political terror. In the end, it examines the level of militarization and the evolution and current state of civil-military relations. It concludes that most of the indicators do not bode well for the stability and democratic consolidation of Turkey. The reason Turkey has not succumbed to political violence and social instability is likely due to its high level of political repression. Given the characteristics of the Turkish society, two basic scenarios for future development are feasible: Turkey can either become much less stable and a victim to social discord with a chance of dangerous escalation; or it will cement its authoritarianism and manage social order by draconian policing, disproportionate "counter-terrorism" laws and disregard for the rule of law. Neither of these scenarios is favourable for its NATO allies, who must engage Turkey and work within the framework of existing alliances and international organizations to mitigate the risks of Turkey either becoming a rogue player or a state embroiled in a civil conflict.

The article deals with the issue of warfare. Its aim is to describe and clarify the character of warfare in its contemporary doctrinal context. The authors of the article focused on the specifics of individual forms of warfare and its complexity within the annexation of Crimea by the armed forces of the Russian Federation in 2014. Description, content and comparative analysis of used sources and doctrinal publications were used. The authors conclude that the complexity of contemporary warfare creates appropriate conditions for the nation and its armed forces to enforce its interests and achieve strategic goals. The main contribution of the article is to provide information that is not available in professional literature or it is not part of doctrinal or other national military publications.

The Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), on the basis of which the EU builds its defence identity, has a broad spectrum. It focuses not only on the defence component of the CSDP, but also on associated areas such as defence industry and market, defence research and development, and supports them with related legislation and various policy and financial instruments. On the one hand, this prevents the issue of European defence from being easily confined. On the other hand, this reflects the robustness of the EU's approach to European defence and its willingness to mobilize all available resources. The article describes the evolution of European defence, its major milestones and actors, related processes and rules, and the key tools that are now largely concentrated under the umbrella of the CSDP. Current issues of European defence, including scenarios of its possible future development, are also addressed, as well as the contribution of the Czech Republic.

The Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), on the basis of which the EU builds its defence identity, has a broad spectrum. It focuses not only on the defence component of the CSDP, but also on associated areas such as defence industry and market, defence research and development, and supports them with related legislation and various policy and financial instruments. On the one hand, this prevents the issue of European defence from being easily confined. On the other hand, this reflects the robustness of the EU's approach to European defence and its willingness to mobilize all available resources. The article describes the evolution of European defence, its major milestones and actors, related processes and rules, and the key tools that are now largely concentrated under the umbrella of the CSDP. Current issues of European defence, including scenarios of its possible future development, are also addressed, as well as the contribution of the Czech Republic.

Islamist territorially anchored violent non-state actors (ITAVNSAs) seeking to change the status quo of the current international system constitute one of the greatest challenges the international order based on mutual respect of equal sovereign states. These actors in areas without the presence of power states use explicit cross-border violence to achieve their objective in accordance with universal Islamist ideology - the construction of a caliphate. The paper presents in the theoretical and modern historical perspectives methods of reduction of anarchy in the international system - power, economic, legalistic and normative - and highlights the reasons why face to face of these actors, these heretofore functional ways, be it on a regional or system level of analysis, fail.

Rocket technology occupies an elite position in the doctrines of hybrid actors in the Middle East. The thesis of proliferation of tactical ballistic missiles analyses four models - political, technological, substitutional and propagandist-psychological. An effective reduction of ballistic missiles and technologies has been identified in the political model, where sanctions and embargoes limit the proliferation of missile technology. In the technical model, which plays a key role, the limiting factors are those of development and dissemination of high-energy laser weapons. The substitutional model illustrates the application of tactical ballistic missiles as carriers for improvised devices. It is of marginal importance, despite covering targets that involve secondary damage. Studying the model of propaganda and psychology confirms the psychological effect on the population associated with the losses, but it does not affect the reduction of missiles.

The European Union is interested in ensuring the security of African countries in the region of Sahel because some of the threats originating from this region can potentially endanger its member states. With the deteriorating situation in northern Mali, the EU has decided to become more active in this country through Common Security and Defence Policy missions. The aim of this article is to introduce and subsequently assess the contemporary policy of EU in Mali. Particular attention will be paid to the European Union Training Mission in Mali and European Union Capacity Building Mission in Mali, which have so far produced rather mixed results. The article will also focus on the EU strategy in the Sahel region and partly on the EU counterterrorist and counterinsurgency activities in Mali.

This paper deals with the phenomenon of Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters from the perspective of East Central European countries. Over the past decade, the term 'foreign terrorist fighter' has become established in scholarly literature, international law and the popular consciousness. Today, Jihadist foreign terrorist fighters are closely watched globally for the security threat they pose. Although the greatest danger in Europe is seen to be to nations in the west, several cases in East Central Europe - involving terrorists travelling through the region and attempting to radicalise local jihadists - have led Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic to adopt important legislation to eliminate this threat.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

The article discusses the history and present state of instruction in the Arabic language in the Armed Forces of the United States and the United Kingdom within the context of their engagement in the Middle East. The analysis of the evolution of institutions tasked with Arabic language instruction since the end of the World War II mainly addresses the issues of fast language-capacity building and the cooperation between the Armed Forces and the academic sector. The main issue in state-organized instruction in non-standard languages is a discrepancy between the required long-term nature of building of linguistic capacities and an immediate need of states addressing new regional challenges requiring a specific knowledge of new languages.

The main topic and focus of this article is to identify the most relevant indicators of the rise of religious extremism as an important cause of armed conflicts. A religiously motivated conflict is a relevant topic in modern security studies and research. Conflict prevention using the early-warning indicators identified in this article might be interesting for the security expert community. In the article chosen methodology is available with the recommendation to following research in the examined field.

The aim of the text is to present the approach to assessing the military potential of the state as well as the will or possibilities to be used to achieve national strategic interests or power objectives. This approach is methodologically based on the sectoral analysis of the state's power potential and its possible projections in the construction and use of armed forces. The described and used approach in the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic is applied to the current Russian Federation and its military or power activities

In May 2017, Islamists of the South-Philippine Separate Groups of Abu Sajyaf and Maute occupied Marawi City in Mindanao. Five-month fighting was attended by more than 3,000 armed forces against about 1,000 jihadists. Dozens of foreign fighters took part in the fighting on the Islamists side and confirming the pan-Islamic ethos of the Islamic state's ideology in this part of the world. Philippine troops were not prepared for the character of fighting in urbanized environment against motivated and experienced militants. The shortcomings were manifested in the conducting of operations in a heavily built-up area, but also in low-level coordination and limits of capabilities of the technical intelligence. It was decided to create Special Operations Command to which all Philippine special purpose forces are subordinated. The conflict experience has initiated a change of doctrinal approach that focuses on air support to reduce losses due to inaccurate bombing and acquisitions of high-tech reconnaissance and weapon systems.

The article provides partial results of the research Strategic Analysis Methods applicable within the Defence Department of the Czech Republic. This research addresses a low level of use of strategic analysis methods in the development of strategic and conceptual documents of the department. In the years 2017 and 2018, interviews with the processors of these documents were carried out and the problems related to the use of strategic analysis methods in sector planning were analysed. In particular, the article analyses the content and utilization process of stakeholder analysis method, SWOT analysis, future scenarios, benchmarking and GAP analysis.

The present article expresses the importance of the Zrínyi 2026 Hungarian government medium-term modernization program and its impact on military security in the region. Migration crisis, hybrid warfare treatments and withdrawal from the INF (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) treaty were the main reasons for the enactment of the Zrínyi 2026 program. Comparing the Polish and Hungarian Defence Forces, the article analyses the significance of military security in Central Europe. The analysis explores organizational and legal changes and the purchase of armaments. The Hungarian program's objectives are to change not only the equipment but also the structure and organization. The Commander of the Hungarian Defence Forces was separated from the Ministry of Defence. The Hungarian program has declared the increase in the number of reserve forces to twenty thousand and the active duty personnel to roughly thirty-eight thousand. Due to the modernization the military forces will be equipped with new components.

The paper deals with the concept of proxy wars in the region of the Middle-East and the role of intelligence services in it. In the current conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, many external actors and powers interfere using (not only) their intelligence services for the defence of their national interests in afflicted states, often even combating each other on a territory of a different state. The main goal of the paper is to introduce the concept of proxy war and analyse the role of intelligence services in the ongoing conflicts in the defined area.

The concept of modular forces seems to be an ideal solution for a topical dilemma: how to build a single set of units for a wide range of military operations. However, the concept of unit modularity has its limitations. The article explains how the modular force structure supports flexibility and consequently brings increased demand on the number of support units. For this reason, the modular force organisation cannot be built without massive investment in support capabilities. The concept of modularity includes the risk that shortage of support units will significantly limit the readiness of forces for a large conventional war. The author presents four recommendations for the application of the concept of modularity at a national level to facilitate the formation of allied forces.

The Armed Forces of BiH were officially unified in 2005 and are composed of two founding armies: the Bosniak-Croat Army of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Bosnian Serb Army of Republika Srpska. Even though the unified armed forces celebrated their 13^th anniversary in December 2018 and are presented as a success story, the political environment in Bosnia and Herzegovina, particularly in Republika Srpska, does not foster a sense of unity in the armed forces. The paper explores the vulnerabilities that the unified armed forces face, particularly in relation to the process of state building in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The text concludes, that the main concerns for the BiH armed forces include the old equipment, the economic problems of the country and budget constraints, politicisation and ethnicisation - while ongoing nationalism and the unsure future of BiH remain the greatest external challenges.

Uncertainty is a constant in war. Militaries regularly go into conflicts with operational concepts that are not relevant in the face of the enemy and his plans. The authors propose a way to reduce uncertainty and rapidly check, then adapt, the operational concept - designed learning operations at the beginning of campaigns. These relatively small operations will create friction with the enemy, giving learning teams crucial information to assess their operational concepts. Learning operations offer conventional militaries a way to maximize their advantages over sub-state enemies, by concentrating learning at the outset of the fight and adapting first.

The editorial board of Vojenské rozhledy Journal presents an article by General Staff Colonel (plk. gšt.) Tomáš Novotný, currently the Chief of the Department of Strategic Planning (J-5) of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Slovak Republic. This article was published in HORYZONTY BEZPIECZEŃSTWA Nr 8 (3) 2017 and it is available online at http://www.prawo.uni.opole.pl/horyzonty_bezp/Nr_8(3)_2017.pdf. The article is very closely linked to the subject of the contribution published in Vojenské rozhledy 3/2019, entitled "Religious Extremism as a Cause of Armed Conflicts: Indicators and Early Warning Systems", and in a certain way it defines its theoretical foundations.
This article briefly describes and puts together conclusions of the Copenhagen Peace Research Institute' key publications, which were released within the transformation of the Security Studies at the turn of the millennium, with conclusions of the UN Human Security Concept that was successfully institutionalized in 2012. Afterwards, the "Copenhagen School" methodology was applied on the UN Human Security Concept to identify a set of human security challenges and threats, which have been - after analysis of their causal relationship - supplemented by a causal classification. Most security threats create a causal link with one or more other security threats. This fact implies that there is a possibility to create a causal model (mental, graphic, etc.) of any security threat to simulate or to predict the consequences and successfulness / efectivity of a suggested security solution (securitizating or de-securitizating). As a practical subject of a security threat causal analysis was used the model of processes on the way "from a state failure to a terrorism manifestation" adapted to contemporaty situation in the European Union.

A major challenge in defence planning is to establish a clear audit trail between security challenges, political ambitions and the recommended force structure. This paper describes a capability- and scenario-based methodology combined with a software toolset called JDARTS that gives long term defence planners a systematic approach to create links from high level security challenges to force structure recommendations. The security challenges are represented by mission types exemplified by scenarios which give concrete requirements. These requirements are represented by capabilities which are matched against the capabilities of force structure elements. The matching is a selection process where the outcome is the cheapest set of the force structure elements that fulfil the requirements. The JDARTS-software supports this method. Even though the future is uncertain, the defence planner's job is to help decision makers prioritize between economic constraints, national preparedness and international commitment.

The paper discusses the correlation between methodologies of conflict analysis and dynamics of international security environment and highlights the need to tailor these methodologies to the rapid sequencing of world events. The analytical approach starts with an overview on the general theory of conflict, whereupon the author focuses on the most widely used models of contemporary conflict analysis and summarizes the way they approach the same conflict, namely the recent events in Ukraine, in order to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each model. The final part of the paper develops, instead of conclusions, the correlation between the two analysed items and the way in which specific components of the methodologies can be adapted to the development of main characteristics of the international security environment.

The paper focuses on issues related to possibilities of use of mine delivery systems within the Czech Armed Forces. Its content is aimed on technical and tactical capabilities of the mine launcher MV-3 during the placement of anti-tank minefields according to the desired effect on the enemy. On the basis of indicative calculations this paper presents limited possibilities and abilities of the Czech Armed Forces Corps of Engineers within the area of remotely placement mine fields and the use of the mine launcher MV-3, which is currently the only special established means for fulfilling this task. This fact has a significant impact on tactical deployment of countermobility engineer units during carrying out their missions.

This paper aims to enrich professional discussion on future shape of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic (AFCR) and is linked to the preceding research and publishing activities of members of the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies (CBVSS) at the University of Defence. In its first part, it performs a historical tour to the year 2012 and highlights the reasons that the former leadership of the ACR led to the start of construction work on the concept of AFCR (KVAČR). Briefly describes the interconnection and the hierarchy of individual conceptual and strategic documents, the procedure works on them and summarizes the arguments supporting the need of KVAČR as such. The next section brings potential methodological approaches to the preparation of this document, using the method of the "9S", including practical examples, it renumbers basic strategic assumptions and priorities in various stages, bordered by years 2020 and 2025 as a prerequisite for formulating strategies for achieving this specific goal. Within the document, there is a short excursion into the field of long-term planning for major areas of skills, using their description of DOTMLPFI functional areas, including an example of using this methodology in project preparation of program funding. The recommendations formulated in the article are based on the authors' best experiences with the preparation of documents of a similar type in the years 2003-2013, the recommendations of experts from the broader security community of the Czech Republic, and recommendations of the Alliance. As such, it has been passed to the KVAČR processors at level of the General Staff of AFCR over the years 2013-2014.

The article deals with economical aspects of operation of the military vehicles designated for the transport of persons in the competence of the defence department. In the beginning of the article basic concepts are defined, types of vehicles, and current structure of fleet of the sector. In addition, all passenger vehicles and buses exceeds the national average age in 2015. A more detailed analysis showed that the MoD makes the procurement of new vehicles in cost-effective way, and the structure of these purchases began to predominate significantly cars with diesel engines in the last ten years. However, the lack of monitoring of the total costs of operating vehicle use all cars unevenly, and fleet renewal is realized in low volumes. Although the data in the article are reported to and including 2015, evaluated the development and evolution of this trend persists until today.

The aim of the paper is description and analysis of the transformation of the concept of hybrid war. The Russian intervention in Ukraine in 2014 meant principal re-definition of the concept which is reflected in the contemporary views on the hybrid wars and hybrid threats. The concept of hybrid war had been questioned in the past already as his validity and the efforts to be applied on the past conflicts deformed its innovative content. One could argue, that adding new dimensions and topic such as economic factors, ideological activity etc. brings risk of concept´s expansion which goes far behind of the framework of the phenomenon of the war and the use of armed forces in the armed conflicts. The author draws attention to the fact that the definition of hybrid war tends to be subordinate to the current needs, which in turn only hinders their explanation potential.

When planning and conducting tactical exercises of units and formations, it is often the case that aspects of long-term operations in a chemical, biological or radiological contaminated environments have disappeared from consideration of commanders and staff officers. The reluktance to "complicate the situation" in training may have different causes, but the continuing importance of CBRN defence is indisputable. The article discusses probable commander questions related to the effective management of subordinate units in a contaminated environments. Their answering can help to successfully fulfill defined combat tasks that have been disrupted by the use of enemy weapons of mass destruction, improvised devices containing highly toxic substances, or leakage of industrial hazardous substances into the environment.

The authors' intention is to present findings to which they came while analysing the implementation process of the EU Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), especially in the area of EU operations planning and development of capabilities required for achieving the EU level of ambition. Only issuing the EU Global Strategy in 2016 and its subsequent implementation process seems to be a momentum for specifying commitments stemming from PESCO. At present, there is a list of common binding commitments which 25 of 28 EU member states have signed to. This list includes specific commitments as for development of required capabilities needed for achieving expected objectives of CSDP operations. Nevertheless, a very critical point related to the current PESCO implementation process is whether the present level of EU member states integration allows fully completing all highly ambitious commitments as declared by political leaders.

This paper is derived from "Exploring the Future Operating Environment", published in Joint Force Quarterly, April 2018. The article was presented at the Defense & Strategy 2018 conference, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno on 4-6 June 2018.

This paper provides an introduction to the quantum radars that can cause a revolution in the modern warfare in the near future. The goal of the paper is to present basic principles of quantum radars without deep knowledge of quantum mechanics, where its properties and phenomena important for the quantum radar will be outlined. After the physics introduction, the three basic designs of how the quantum radar could work will be presented as well as their advantages. In more details, the main benefits of quantum radars including higher quantum radar cross section and more difficult jamming and localization will be discussed. Next, the state-of-the-art research, the important technologies for quantum radar and its other applications will be commented. Finally, the time scale of the first prototypes and the role of the quantum electronic warfare will be discussed.