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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society.

At present, MoD department prepares a new method of economic control: budgeting by objectives. The process has two levels. The fi rst level covers all sources control, the second one is restricted to budgeting methods. Our defence department is under the pressured of continual budget cuts, so the leading defence representatives should welcome this new technique which will clearly and distinctly present results of limited defence budgets, both for the army by itself and for country defence. Targeted budgeting will be oriented towards outward institutions (parliament) and inside activities (within defence department). Departmental objectives are to be taken as integrative, supported by IT system linked up with state treasury, offering reliable data about costs and expenses within the Chapter of the Ministry of Defence.

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

The article deals with the disintegration and erosion of originally cohesive Chechen resistance movement during the First Chechen War and following inter-war period. According to the author, the main reasons of this process are criminality and religious fundamental radicalisation. They together produced inner confl icts between fi eld commanders; some of them attacked Russian security forces in neighbouring regions (Dagestan, Ingushetia), even after war had ended. Disintegration processes were encouraged by social deprivation after the first war, by strategical position of Chechnya in relation to smuggling drugs and weapons, stealing rude oil, and fi nally activities of foreign Islamic solidarity fi ghters. All those factors signifi cantly contributed to the outbreak of the Second Chechnya War.

Since 1990, members of ACR forces have taken part in 29 foreign missions, some of them continue even today. A total of 24,171 soldiers have participated. The authors with regret state that in spite of the fact of 20 years of foreign missions, no military manual dealing with methodology of building military bases was approved. This article tries to bridge this gap. It depicts fundamental components of military base and enumerates six principal wholes of such base, further 23 basic types of elementary sections. The article was written within the limits of defence research project "Technology Support to Projection, Construction, Maintenance and Dismatling ACR Bases in Mission Abroad, with the Use of REACH-BACK Concept", which was elaborated at the Department of Engineer Technologies, in cooperation with Department of Combat Support Management, Defence University, Brno.

The key term in this article is "war economy" It is used to describe the contingencies undertaken by the state to mobilise its economy for war production. Often confused term "resource conflicts" needs explaining. First, there are raw materials, mineral resources (diamonds, precious metals). Another group of resources are critical items, water supplies, and fertile lands. This article concentrates on conflicts provoked by the abundance of natural sources, not by their insufficiency. Their driving motive is "greed-based" model (the effort to take over the control over lands, crude oils). Another model is "grievance-based" model, based upon the feeling of hate, having its roots in e.g. underprivileged position of certain part of population) tied with worsening economy). "War economy" got a new meaning. It moved far away from Clauzewitz's paradigm, the sense of such war is in itself, the war is protracted, it is war for war's sake.

Since 2008 national security institutions such as police, fi re brigades or armed forces have been confronted with the lack of manpower. There is impending risk of decreasing in population between 15-24 years, and as those key executive institutions are based upon employees' principle, this fact might disenable each national security institution, supposing this risk would be underestimated. Recruiting campaigns are not sufficient enough. In the near future, this is probably going to infl uence so far strict criteria for recruiting military personnel. According to the author, demographic ageing thus represents one of risks, but up to now the offi cial documents by Czech MoD have not reflected this situation.

The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training.

The overall trend set by NATO forming small, mobile, modern and highly capable units, prepared for combat deployment whenever and anywhere - determines fundamental changes both in military materiel, arms, technologies, but also those in structures of command and control, in the field of preparation and training soldiers. Small units, company, platoon, section are to be prepared for matching the task in the whole spectrum of operational and combat activities, so that they could immediately conduct warfare after being deployed. Supported by a wide range of Allied Publication, Joint Force HQ and Doctrine Committee, Training and Doctrine Directorate, prepared together a pack of tactical publications introducing principles to support above mentioned principles. At the end there is a list of individual chapters dealing with standard principles which will guide actions of company, platoon, and section.

The former warriors from opposing sides are recounting their version of events have always been important in understanding history. In studying the Cold War, The Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact (PHP) has undertaken the mission of preserving the history of the two alliances that faced each other for decades on the continent of Europe during the Cold War. It has been collecting, analyzing and interpreting previously secret government documents and making them available via their unrestricted website [www.isn.ethz.ch/php/index. htm]. Documents alone cannot define the thinking behind events, so PHP is now gathering key players from both sides to discuss their perspectives on events. The first meeting in this series took place in Sweden, in April 2006. Similar conferences should add to the historical accuracy and understanding of that very long and dangerous period when the two large groups of armies stood ready against each other. Source: Army No. 7/2006.

Recently, on pages of this Military Review, several authors wrote about new scholarly discipline, the securitology (Josef Janošec, MR 3/2007). The author would like to add several ideas to this new discipline, inspired among others, D. Meadows, Limits to Growth, P. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, R. Robertson, Globalization: Social Theory and Global Culture, Albrow, M. The Global Age, and many others. Today's world actors, the U.S., People's China, Russia, India, Iran, are in their roles accompanied by institutions, such as the Unites Nations, European Union, NATO, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, multinational monopolies, etc. Among key actors also belong established international terrorism, international crime. The common outlet of those megatrends is emerging New Multipolarity, new picture of world's configuration. Among others, at the end, the author calls for good relations with Russia, otherwise we might face energetic crisis (energy aspect of security).

This paper discusses the methods of integrated risk management during evaluating the risk rates of military activities. Risk management is an important tool for effective implementation of secure surroundings. And vice versa, the level of security determines requirements concerning the transformation of armed forces, because this security level plays one of key roles in its implementation. The authors depict individual phases of integrated risk management that ought to be applied not only at the level of military units and groupings, but also during the whole process of security evaluation of acquisitions for missions or regions. The acceptation of subsidiarity principle means that this sort of risk management is a starting base for safeguarding global security. At the end the authors enumerate fundamental principles to be fulfilled first.

Professional, or Professionalized NCO Corps by CSM Dušan Rovenský. This article covers the process of transition from conscript army to entirely professional, allvolunteer force (AVF). It deals with the role and responsibilities of NCOs generally, rank and grade structure, career rules, NCOs' training and education. The author identifies the problems of a rapid professionalization, discusses the possibilities for improvement and finally suggests the possible solutions to those problems. Among others, there is some sort of misunderstanding as far as Other Ranks/Enlisted corps is concerned. The Czech translations of those ranks do not always correspond to their general positions, ranks, responsibilities, command authority, the length of service of individual non-commissioned officers (NCOs), sergeants, or warrant officers (WOs). The author, Command Sergeant Major, Support and Training Forces Command (a graduate of U.S. Army Sergeants Major Academy Fort Bliss) puts forward several proposals to make those translations more precise.

The article describes certain findings obtained during the introduction of new methods in the teaching of English language courses organized at Defense Language Institute, Vyškov. It outlines possible problems, which will have to be addressed before the wider exploitation of e-learning in language education for the MoD. It expresses the optimism that e-learning will find the rightful place, especially in the realm of distance learning, as well as support of the administrative and command authorities. The dynamic development of e-learning is prevented only by the barriers of legislative provenance, as military computer network must be protected and secure. The leading authorities are searching for suitable connecting of users that are not only passive participants, but they must be tested and instructed.

This article presents the findings of the survey being done during the evaluation and assessment of EU Battle Groups, their missions, roles, tasks, stemming from the requirements set by the EU Crisis Management Concept. The paper does not discuss in detail variants EU Battle Groups, but concentrates on their historical background, basic characteristics, structure, EU political-military ambitions, scenarios, reaction time, tasks, standards, training and certification, Battle Groups commitments, concept and implementation, achievements. The article also includes recommendations for the Czech Armed Forces that are currently involved in the formation of the EU Battle Group CZE/SVK. This article aims to record progress to date and to indicate challenges ahead. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

This article presents not only an non-conventional approach towards psychology of military groups, but also offers the deep insight into British way of military thinking. This article is concerned with cohesion in its broadest sense. The term cohesion is usually used to describe one of the many contributions to morale. British military doctrine says that manoeuvres approach is an approach to operation in which shattering the enemy's overall cohesion and will to fight is paramount. The cohesion in this context is being used to describe the complex interaction of the physical, moral and conceptual components of fighting. A thorough understanding of the cohesion between people would enhance their fighting power. The good leadership is the means by which an understanding of what enables cohesion can be used to bring it about. Source: Human Cohesion; Shock and Surprise on the Battlefield (D. Rowland, D. Roney, J. Storr), British Army Review No 137, 2005.

Mr. Polok was born in 1923 in the nationally mixed country of Silesia (Cieszyn). After Nazi Germany invaded Poland, his parents were forced to sing up the so-called Voklsliste No 3. Shortly after that he was call up to serve as a soldier in the German Armed Forces (Wehrmacht). His unit was stationed in Italy. There he met contingents of Polish troops which were the first that reached Lombardy. He joined the national Polish forces known as the Anders Army (Lt.Gen. Wladyslaw Anders). This Polish Army was subordinated to the Polis-governmentin-exile in London, nevertheless fought alongside the Red Army. He served as a Jeep driver, took part in the fights nearby the Apennines, Northern Italy. In 1946 Polish troops were demobilized, he was sent to England, then he returned home, via Poland. In civilian life he graduated from agriculture college (horticulture, fruitgrowing) and became a pomology expert. He is very happy that after overcoming many administrative problems, he received a letter from Vlasta Parkanová, defence ministress, saying that he is qualified for the certificate of war veteran.

Lowering numbers of humane resources and heavy armed vehicles, together with military materials, subsequent transition to light vehicles, with advanced technologies, being capable of quick, rapid movements-those are worldwide trends in the field of military that are reflected also in the Army of the Czech Republic. This new type of forces is able to reach high warfare effectivity-even with lowest numbers of servicemen-in combat and non-combat operations. Namely this article deals with some problem segments of the fire support of mechanized troops. The author describes individual elements of the system, their tasks and responsibilities. At the end of article he summarises the tasks we need for complex and effective fire support of mechanized troops, especially fire support to task forces.

Some time ago, this review published an article by Mgr. Antonín Konrád in which he asked the readers to discuss the problems tied with military PT. Training is not mere physical exercises, weight training and the like. Physical resistance, endurance is necessary precondition for effective developing physical performance and locomotive powers. Soldier's physical qualification must be taken on the whole, as individually connected dispositions, covering all layers of meaning of soldier's life. The author proposes to strictly differentiate among service obligatory PT, selective PT, and off-service PT. administrative and draft commands came into existence. The core changes took place in 1949 when regional military commands were established, further changes followed: in 1954 regional military commands were remodelled into regional military directorates. Their subordination was also altered. As of January 1, 1992, the regional military directorates were renamed higher administrative commands. Updated Act No. 218/1999 (Military Law) established 35 regional directorates and the Main Draft Centre Tabor (dealing with recruiting, mobilization and manning). Under the Act 585/2004, a total of 14 Regional Military Command were established, with the aim to manage crisis situations, organize mobilization, manning the forces, taking care of military veterans, retired servicemen, including the support of regional military clubs. The latest document defining the scope of authority and organizational structure of regional military commands was published in November 3,2006, taking effect as of January 1, 2007.

Conventional military strategists did not hold counterinsurgency (COIN) and irregular warfare with high esteem. In fact, strategists often marginalized COIN and irregular warfare, never regarding irregular warfare as worthy of strategic-level discussions. But true strategic thinking on the subject of COIN and irregular warfare consider time and space and long strategic view. Now we must consider critical areas for the global war on terrorism (GWOT), including changing nature of the threat environment. Sources: Principles, Imperatives and Paradoxes of Counterinsurgency, by E. Cohen, Lt.Col. C. Crane, Lt.Col. J. Horvath, Lt.Col. J. Nagl; Strategic Aspects of Counterinsurgency by Col. J. B. Celeski in Military Review March-April 2006.

The forward-thinking and respond to the challenges of today's dynamic operational environment demands as necessary: first, to attract and develop young people to become adaptative leaders possessing enhanced skills, i.e. we must align leader-development programmes for the new operating environment; second, to respond to the forces' needs in meeting the challenges of the operational environment-the forces have to undergo a transformation. Adaptability is critical to urban stability and support operations, as these operations present complex challenges to commanders for which no prescribed solutions exist. Warfare and technology are rapidly evolving; doctrine lags behind the need for ready solutions. Officers are confronted by many situations outside the doctrinal framework. No amount of technology can offset the effects of chaos theory ...169 Clearly, there is a need to quickly learn knowledge/skill sets, coupled with a new operating frame that might be radically different from the skills and knowledge developed through classical training (Military Review, January/February 2006, Tomáš Weiser, What is the Chaos? Dějiny a současnost, 5/2002).

He was born in 1910, during his military service he became a reserve officer. After 1938 he left the former Czechoslovakia, and after a long and complicated journey through the Balkan states, after being arrested for illegal crossing Palestinian borders, in 1940 he joined the Czechoslovak army in the Middle East. He was appointed the commander of a reserve officer platoon. He hold several positions, among others he led 12 patrols in enemy's areas. As the British Royal Air Force suffered heavy losses, Czech soldiers were called up to join the Air Force. He became a member of 311 bomber squadron, in 1943 he was transferred to the Royal Canadian Air Force, Newfoundland, to guard sea convoys, next he was transferred to the Bahamas, then back to 311 bomber sq in Scotland, where he patrolled around the seashores, till the end of war. He reached the rank of Flight Lieutenant (Captain). He was awarded the Military Cross and other orders and medals. As an airman from the West, because his wife was of German origin, he was forced to leave his native country again. Even though his beginnings were hard, he established his own company in the USA. He is still very busy and takes part in many projects tied with activities of Czech army abroad.

The professionalization of modern forces is an upcoming trend in all advanced democratic countries. It is demanded by complexity of current armed fight, advanced sophisticated weapons systems, antipathy of young people to serve in forces; established selective service was not solution, as it was more or less tied with bribery. In our country, compulsory military service was abolished after 135 years of its existence, in 2005. Mr. Pernica, the author of a book "Professionalization of Armed Forces: Trends, Theory, Experience", published by Czech Military Agency of Information and Services, treats military service as a sort of public enterprise in market of labour force. He introduces two models of armed forces: conscript service and volunteer service. At the end of this review Mr. Rašek points out that under the condition prevailing security risks and wide-spread interventionist policy, there is a possibility that we shall have to return to conscription system.

This article begins with a theoretical discussion of the culminating point, for both the attack and defence. Key definitions and related concepts provided in Carl von Clausewitz's On War, Joint Publication 3-0, Doctrine for Joint Operations, and U.S. Army Field Manual 100-5, Operations, are discussed in detail. These sources provide many of the factors that can cause a force to reach culmination, and serve as a basis for understanding the difficulties involved in trying to determine the time and place of culmination. Other current factors attributing to culmination are discussed, and recommendations are offered to help operational commanders and planners to zero in on this elusive point. It is of the utmost importance that one's own, and the enemy's culminating point be identified with the highest possible degree of accuracy during the planning phase of a major operation or campaign.

Many people in the world lead intolerably insecure lives. In many cases insecurity is the consequence of armed conflicts in which civilians are deliberately targeted, sometimes, their insecurity has natural causes, like earthquakes, hurricane, tsunami or disease, they suffer from famine. Security is a broader term, covering not only military threats. Human rather than nation-state security should be at the heart of European policy. Instead of defeating enemies or pacifying warring parties, EU missions should focus on protecting civilians, through law enforcement with the occasional use of force. EU member states ought to support a new framework for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The following seven principles are underlined: (i) the primacy of Human Rights, (ii) clear political authority, (iii) multilateralism, (iv) a bottom-approach, (v) regional focus; (vi) the use of legal instruments, (vii) the appropriate use of force. In fact, underlines Mr. Karaffa, humane security concept forms the very base of common European culture and identity.

The Europeans would like to preserve an irreplaceable role of Americans in European security problems. On the other hand, NATO represents for the US a political and military means for American involvement in this region. The whole project of North Atlantic cooperation was drawn according to US demands, not to the contrary. So was the NATO transformation after the Cold War. For the Czech Republic is the bonding with the US the security priority number one. First, we joined the Partnership for Peace, as a primary step, previous to full membership in the Alliance. During wars in the former Yugoslavia in April 1992, we proved our loyalty by sending a joint Czechoslovak battalion for UNPROFOR operation with a total of 500 personnel. At present we've been sending our soldiers abroad to help peace effort of democratic nations headed by the US to stabilize security environment in the frame of international organizations, the UN, OSCE, etc.

It is a point at which attacking forces are unable to continue their attack or even defend themselves, because do casualties, shortages of fuel, ammunition and rations, and sheer physical exhaustion. This sequel article deals with the theory of the operational art focusing on the culminating point operational concept. The article emanates from Carl von Clausewitz's ideas and concepts described in his book "On War", doctrinal publications analysis and study projects of the operational art theorists. It treats conditions influencing achievement of the culminating point on single levels of war-strategic, operational and tactical and highlights coherences and factors having fundamental influences on culmination. The article is accompanied by several graphs describing this theory in detail. Key words: Culmination, Culminating Point, Zeroing, Intelligence Preparation of the Battlespace, Campaign Planning and Developing Operations.

The purpose of this study is to analyse system of economic control at a level of expense institution of the ACR in comparison with theoretical approaches and experiences of civilian company economics and the practice of NATO armies. The author wants to postulate necessary prerequisites widening the space for rationale economy behaviour and decision-making of leading army management. He creates an economic model constituting methods, proceedings, tools of economic control in all phases of budgeting and accounting processes, behaviour of the whole economic system of defence department. The case study is based upon the presentation delivered at the international conference on economy, logistics and ecology in armed forces taking place at IDET 2009 trade fair. Proposed methods should be used for sources allocation, value based management costing transparency, resulting in saving sources and increasing personal responsibility.

There are many items in American foreign policy the Europeans do not agree, namely its tendency towards "strong world leadership". On the other hand, the Americans would prefer stronger Europe, namely in time of world's economic crisis when US defence expenditures are practically frozen, and when pre-emptive strategy by president Bush exhausted most of American sources. Even the Europeans feel that they should profile themselves as independent, strong power, but their Common Foreign and Security Policy is still more political declaration than really military strategy. Many security experts suggest that the Lisbon Treaty excludes NATO membership as far as questions concerning defence are concerned. NATO alliance still expects new strategy that ought to be approved in December 2010. The authors predict the necessity to strengthen the so-called Second Pillar of the EU, as the United States are going to be more oriented towards cooperation with Japan, South Korea and Australia. We must bear it in mind, drawing up long-term visions of Czech Security policy.