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Why to Start the Process of Revision of Military Strategy of the Czech RepublicOpinions, controversyIng. Vladimír KrulíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 74-89 We are aware of new and still increasing risks in the world, particularly in connection with the increase in terrorist activities. Broadly speaking, in building our professional army we enforce quality and efficiency, even with restricted means and sources, respecting our potential and on the basis of evaluation of interests of the Czech Republic, engagement in peace, stabilisation and other missions organised by NATO, the EU, or the UN. The author recapitulates all legislative acts, documents and papers, dealing with Czech military strategy, namely the Czech Republic's Military Strategy approved by the governmental resolution No. 578, June 9, 2004, that details principles of our defence policy. Now the author proposes to revise our military strategy in the year 2007, for-first: we successfully completed a phase called Initial Operating Capability; second, from this standard we can unroll further activities: operational engagement of brigade task force; third, in this very year we are evaluating transformation objectives for 2007-2011 (2012). Based upon this level of knowledge, we shall be able to draft new concepts of military strategy, e.g. to substitute current military strategy by defence strategy. The topic is open to discussion. |
An Amendment to the Environmental Policy of Czech Defence Department in 2007-2010Military professionalKpt. Ing. David Řehák, Ph.D., plk. prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 167-172 An Amendment to the Environmental Policy of Czech Defence Department in 2007-2010 by Capt. Ing. David (Col. ret.) This short information is based upon articles widely published in 2005-06 in Western military magazines and newspapers. After September 11, 2001, NATO member states are discussing the deployment of nuclear weapons at non-strategical level. Among others, this is embarrassed by the Russian attitude and general demands of some European NATO nations to update Alliance strategy. What does it mean? There are voices to Řehák, Ph.D., Col. Prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc. This proposal reflects challenges resulting from the professional assessment of departmental environmental policy. It is divided into three parts: (i) command and control; (ii) established practice; (iii) communication and education. The solution doesn't lie in the utilization of refuse, disposal of dangerous waste, passive environmental protection, but in earth-friendly attitude towards environment, active measures for damages prevention even during commanders' decision-making process. The basic principle rests on sustainable growth, backed by harmonization of economical, environmental and social aspects. Proposed environmental policy originates from State Environmental Principles and Czech membership in NATO alliance. |
The Cold War: Look back in Peace (Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact)Book reviewIng. Josef NastoupilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 180-183 The former warriors from opposing sides are recounting their version of events have always been important in understanding history. In studying the Cold War, The Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact (PHP) has undertaken the mission of preserving the history of the two alliances that faced each other for decades on the continent of Europe during the Cold War. It has been collecting, analyzing and interpreting previously secret government documents and making them available via their unrestricted website [www.isn.ethz.ch/php/index. htm]. Documents alone cannot define the thinking behind events, so PHP is now gathering key players from both sides to discuss their perspectives on events. The first meeting in this series took place in Sweden, in April 2006. Similar conferences should add to the historical accuracy and understanding of that very long and dangerous period when the two large groups of armies stood ready against each other. Source: Army No. 7/2006. |
Inflation in Defence Expenses: Opening DiscussionResearchMjr. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D., por. Ing. Gamil Al-MadhagiVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 47-55 Developing Czech national defence system is based on long-term predictions of potential security threatsandplanningofresourcesavailablefordefence, including defence spending plans. This paper analyses the issue of current value of defence expenditures. It attempts to give an answer to the question whether defence requires a specific price index or if common civilian indicators like GDP deflator or consumer price index can be used in defence. |
Current Tendencies in the Development of World's Arms MarketNonreviewed - OtherDr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 145-151 According to the study by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the expenses for armament and armed conflict in the world have been increasing in the last ten years by 37 percent (in 2006), they reached 1,204 billion dollars. It is estimated that this trend will continue even the following five years. It is a leading factor for economy trends in the near future, so the author proposes coordinated national armaments policy in world arms market. The article is based upon SIPRI Yearbook 2007 ...168 |
Battle GroupMilitary artPplk. Ing. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 52-69 This article presents the findings of the survey being done during the evaluation and assessment of EU Battle Groups, their missions, roles, tasks, stemming from the requirements set by the EU Crisis Management Concept. The paper does not discuss in detail variants EU Battle Groups, but concentrates on their historical background, basic characteristics, structure, EU political-military ambitions, scenarios, reaction time, tasks, standards, training and certification, Battle Groups commitments, concept and implementation, achievements. The article also includes recommendations for the Czech Armed Forces that are currently involved in the formation of the EU Battle Group CZE/SVK. This article aims to record progress to date and to indicate challenges ahead. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. |
Lessons from the War of Israel with HezbollahMilitary artIng. Josef NastoupilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 59-64 Israeli Defence Forces currently evaluates information collected during recent fighting in Lebanon. Although the war was assessed as successful, there are some deficiencies that are to be improved. (a) Aviation and air defence systems. Israel is prepared against ballistic missiles, it was not prepared against short distance ones. Attack helicopters AH-64 were for the first time deployed for tactical (close) combat support of ground forces. One of them crashed down, other two collided in the air; (b) Armour. Also Israel's Merkava Mk4 was used for the first time in combat. More than 50 of the 350 Merkava Mk2, 3 and 4 tanks used in the military operations in Lebanon were damaged by Hezbollah, resulting in the death of 23 crewmen. During the last year the IDF was constantly engaged in high-intensity urban counterterrorist warfare. The regular forces, including tank crews, were retrained for small unit infantry policing activities. As a result, among others, several tanks lost tracks due to driver's inexperience. The article widely drew from several reputable magazines and reviews: Aviation Week, No. 12/2006, Jane's Defence Weekly, No. 41/2006, Defense News, No. 38, 39/2006. |
Motivation as an Important Factor in Learning Foreign Languages (Gardner's socio-educational model)Military pedagogyKpt. Ing. Petra Vráblíková, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 168-174 What is motivation? In fact, motivation is the force behind doing something, including the desire, the need, the energy, and the actual doing of it. It is a combination of various factors. Motivations vary so much. In formal descriptions of the socio-educational model of language acquisition (Gardner), we define the whole class of variables as the social milieu. Individual differences regarded as the most eminent are as follows: intelligence, aptitude to learn foreign language, last but not least, and the pressure from social surrounding. Nowadays, the concept of integrative motivation is often referred to (Dorneyi) in discussions about the learning of another language. The present-day concept is drawn from real life, from social interactions that force a man to overcome his language barrier (Finegan). Instrumental motivation means better university/working rating, better financial reward (Sansone, Harackiewicz, Intrinsic and Extrinsic Motivation: The Search for Optimal Motivation and Performance). In spite of mentioned differences, motivation and successful acquisition of foreign language represent a complex outlet that could be tested and evaluated. |
The First and the Second Russian's Military Campaign in Chechnya: An Attempt to CompareInformational pagesJan JindřichVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 106-116 This work consists of analysis of differences in chain of command, tactics, weaponry and equipment used by Russian Army during the first and the second Chechen war. Main theme is searching for the answer to what degree were Russian generals able to learn from their own tragic mistakes, being done in the first war, and what are the main reasons of Russian relative success in the second. In simplification, the key factors are as follows: new joint command, at the beginning delegated to the Ministry of Defence; detailed planning of combat operations; and respect to enemy combat abilities. In addition: increased effectiveness of Russian ground forces, artillery and air force cooperation, massive deployment of new weapon systems such as Precisely Guided Ammunition and ammunition with Thermobaric effect, last but not least rather unusual effort of the Russian Army to minimize human casualties of its own forces. The reasons mentioned above with many others lead us to the conclusion that Russia is bound for a military victory in Chechnya, nevertheless a long journey remains to be covered. |
Small Wars Revisited (Fourth Generation Warfare)Military artIng. Josef NastoupilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 34-40 This new generation war could be characterized by an emphasis on nonstate actors, by political and psychological forms of attacks that directly influence opponents. Other characteristics are as follows: extensive refugee flows, violence, transnational criminal aspects. Several factors will impact the nature, frequency and character of "small wars" in the 21st century. Failed/failing states, urbanization, diffusion of actors, communications technology, technological diffusion, religion, and ultra-terrorism. Clausewitz's fundamental appreciation for the primacy of political objectives as the guiding object in war remains relevant to "small wars" as does to interstate conflicts. The problem for today's strategist or policy maker is determining exactly what has changed, how the various means of stratecraft need to be adapted to the specific contingency at hand (according to The Journal of Strategic Studies, 6/2005). |
Theoretical Background of Security Science and Medium Range Theory (Discussion Supplement)Opinions, controversyPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 90-100 Recently, on pages of this Military Review, several authors wrote about new scholarly discipline, the securitology (Josef Janošec, MR 3/2007). The author would like to add several ideas to this new discipline, inspired among others, D. Meadows, Limits to Growth, P. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, R. Robertson, Globalization: Social Theory and Global Culture, Albrow, M. The Global Age, and many others. Today's world actors, the U.S., People's China, Russia, India, Iran, are in their roles accompanied by institutions, such as the Unites Nations, European Union, NATO, International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, multinational monopolies, etc. Among key actors also belong established international terrorism, international crime. The common outlet of those megatrends is emerging New Multipolarity, new picture of world's configuration. Among others, at the end, the author calls for good relations with Russia, otherwise we might face energetic crisis (energy aspect of security). |
The Core of Modifications in Testing Physical Abilities of Soldiers (2nd part)Military professionalPlk. PaedDr. Lubomír Přívětivý, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 181-185 Seven new soldiers out of ten are unable to meet requirements set by annual re-examinations. The author proposes to make some special modifications in an upcoming training year: we ought to concentrate more on physical endurance of servicemen than their individual physical force. Presented tables of physical testing indicate quite clearly that the level of physical potential of Czech soldiers is behind capabilities necessary for soldiers in missions abroad, the fact verified in practice. Proposed changes embodied into the new army manual "Service Physical Training in the ACR" are expected to improve detected handicaps. |
NATO's Future Security Environment: Study 2025Nonreviewed - OtherMgr. Jan VlkovskýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 19-25 This article presents main ideas of the document, released by the Allied Command Transformation in March 2007. Terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction will be the principal threats for NATO. Further threats will come from unstable or failed states, regional crises and conflicts, growing availability of advanced conventional weapons, misuse of emerging technologies and disruption of flow of vital resources. India, China and Russia will be key players in future security environment. North Korea, Iran and Syria will present biggest threat to NATO. Following the release of the FSE Study, International Military Staff and defence planners will assess the implications for NATO forces. The purpose of this study is to offer professional views as starting point for solving prospective problems and threats. |
Theory of SurpriseMilitary artIng. Josef NastoupilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 65-70 This article contains main ideas from the essay by James J. Wirtz published in anthology Paradoxes of Strategic Intelligence, Frank Cass 2003. This theory is a unifying explanation of why states, for example, attempt to surprise their opponents with diplomatic or military initiatives. Surprise often is described as a force multiplier; something that increases the effectiveness of one's forces in combat. The prospect of surprise can prompt political leaders of the weaker side to believe that they can nullify that disparity and achieve their objectives. In other words, if strong parties began to view conflict from the weaker party's perspective, while weak actors kept war's dialectic in mind, then surprise would become less likely. The theory of surprise can identify when it is likely to occur, who is likely to find the element of surprise attractive as a basis of policy or strategy, and who is likely to be its victim. The trick now lies in making operational use of the theory of surprise. |
Does MoD Department Need Risk Management System?Nonreviewed - OtherIng. Rudolf RakVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 56-59 In the defence department of the Czech Republic they give a great attention to raising economic effectiveness of process ensuring reliable security. One of partial problems is the creating of risk management system. Even though there are more problems with integration within defence planning systems, it is also important to create not only risk management system, but all overall integrated system of management risks and opportunities, tied together. |
The Rules of Fire Application of Arty Regt and BtyMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Ladislav Potužák, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 175-181 The purpose of this article is to explain methods of the application of artillery fire, according to the width and shape of targets by artillery regiment (without rocket battery) and by artillery battery, if components/data for effective fire are set by substitute means, without computer with respective SW. The assignment of optimal method of artillery fire and its professional implementation has a great influence on FFE (fire for effect). For the sake of economy, live firing practice is executed only to a limited extend. Most of activities are carried out only in the field of command skills, keeping documents, commanders' performance and training gun crews; their reactions to commands and orders. The article is accompanied by several tablets with data concerning application of artillery fire, variable data for aiming devices, adjusted ranges of fire, widths of target divided into several sheaves of fire (converge sheaf, sheaf for target width), their corrections. |
Defence Language Institute Vyškov in 2007Language preparationMgr. Dalibor Cibulka, PhDr. Marie Jandová, CSc., Ing. Dana SzabováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 155-158 Language instruction is an integral part of the training of military professionals and various experts of the Czech Ministry of Defence. An important contributor to this is the Defence Language Institute (DLI) in Vyškov. This article describes the principles of work being applied, at the present time, in the activities of the fundamental components of the DLI, the language instruction section and the methodics and testing section and the scope of this activity. It presents the volume and the results of language training in the ACR from 2003 to 2006, as well as new commitments that the DLI in Vyškov has for 2007. It acknowledges the significant growth in the number of the students in the language courses, and the specialization of the various courses according to the needs and tasking of the ACR. |
Planning, Programming and Budgeting System: from Talking to the Facts!Opinions, controversyMjr. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 41-47 This article is a sequel to the previous disputes over financial management within the Czech Armed Forces. The origins of the first polemic article lay in gaining facts for research work, arranged by the Faculty of Economics and Management, Defence University, "Allocation and Management of Defence Sources of the CR and the Formation of Economic Thinking in the ACR". The system of planning, programming and budgeting (PPBS) was introduced into Czech forces several years ago, but the it did not worked in a way it was supposed. There were many deficiencies the PPB system suffered from. Unfortunately, the author lacks sufficient data to evaluate properly the performance of this system. He has to combine diverse data sources, booklets, statistics, data releases, to make accurate picture of a day-to-day financial military administration. In his opinion, the system is not transparent enough. He appeals for clear figures, released e.g. on army interned pages, to avert accusation of wasting public sources ...168 |
Quality Control in the Army of the Czech RepublicMilitary professionalPor. Ing. Martin VlkovskýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 136-142 This article informs readers about basic ISO standards (International Organization for Standardization), series 9000, and about terminology f lowing from ČSN EN ISO 9000:2001 standards. Fundamental part of the report is a relevant Army of Czech Republic specifics analysis and model implementing proposals of quality management system into a command and control structure of the army. It is favourable for the forces to use above mentioned systems (norms, terminology), especially in logistics. It enables us to follow suppliers/contractors to guarantee the highest quality and effectivity of products and services bought for military. NATO uses among others norms AQAP (Allied Quality Assurance Publications) that were introduced even in our country. Processes are identified in a way broader then in terms of mere ?quality?. Excellence model under EFQM (European Fund For Quality Management) is a voluntary system that can be used for the effective building of a ?small? army, reduced in size, structure, and personnel, in accordance with the approved concept of rebuilding the Czech Army. |
Another True Hero Has Gone Away: Major General (ret.) Miloš Knorr, M.B.EPersonal dataVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 180-181 E. Mr. Knorr came from the family with pedagogical background, his father was a principal in a small Moravian town Ivančice. He acquired flawless knowledge of French and German, which was very useful after he emigrated in 1940. In France he became a personal adjutant to Division Commander. After the fall of France, in Britain, apart from other military occupations, he took a position of paratrooper drill instructor. In June 1944, his ship of the second invasion wave was hit by Germans and wrecked. No Czechoslovak soldier took part in invasion; in this second wave he was one of three. In Europe he interviewed captured German soldiers, dressed in English uniforms. He was decorated by the Order of the British Empire (MBE). In his second emigration after in 1948 he joined American CIC agency. In 1954 he left this service and started to work for the Insurance Company of North America. In 1995, by the order of the Czech president, he was promoted to the rank of Major General. |
Defining Dependency as a Part of Risk Management within Central State AdministrationReviewed - ReviewKpt. Ing. David Řehák, Ph.D., Ing. Monika Grasseová, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 12-18 As we look at some organization as the system of mutually tied and connected processes, se can see that every process is specifically defined. Then key processes constitute the mission of organization (the very core of its existence), which are further divided into several sub-processes, i.e. risk management is subdivided into: establishing the context, risk identification (risk sources), risk analysis, risk evaluation, risk management and risk management re-evaluation (its effectiveness), compiled by the so-called stockholders. Enumerating various risks, the authors conclude that state administration is influenced by two categories of risks: from outside and inside. They have impact both on strategical level and operational one. At the same time, most of elements of organization (employees, material, activities) can present assets, on the other side might present inner risks. |
Time to look backNonreviewed - OtherArm. gen v. v. Ing. Karel PezlVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-4 There are anniversaries inviting us to stop to think about the last twenty years. In fact, this period covered the same time as the pre-war Republic had been in existence. The occupation Russian army was forced to withdraw, the first security and defence doctrine of the independent Federal Czech and Slovak Republic was implemented, armed forces changed their structures into brigade ones. We took part in the First Gulf, a total of 9,000 ex-career soldiers were legally rehabilitated. The former Czechoslovakia was divided into two republics. There were again and again reductions in numbers, budget cuts. In spite of difficulties, we joined the NATO alliance. Looking back is hindsight saying army bodies proved to be resistant, persistent in overcoming all problems. The article is an instrumental text preceding this theme issue focusing on history analyses of constitution of Czech security and defence after 1989. The author was the last Czechoslovak Chief of General Staff and the first Chief of General Staff of the Czech Republic. |
Information Process as a Part of Command and Control System (Parti)Military professionalPplk. Ing. Petr RypVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 149-153 The change of security situation in the world, international ties and last but not least changes in operational environment, exploitation of new technologies are reflected by changes in defence planning, military organization, forces engagement and operational assessment. Time, flexibility, cooperation in coalition operations, interoperability in technology spheres play incommutable roles together with trained personnel. Command and control (C2) is self-contained system depending on many factors provided by the so-called System of Communication and Information. At present it is the very base for information collection, decision-making process, preparing variants of operation for both commander and his staff. Among others the author writes about Network Enabled Capability system introduced into Czech armed forces. C2 programme is also a part of educational curriculum at Defence University Brno. |
Chapters on Security (Informative Review)Book reviewPhDr. Antonín Rašek.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 101-102 In 2007, Karolinum, Publishing House Charles University Prage, released the book "Chapters on Security" by renowned security experts and analysts Messrs Balabán, Duchek, and Stejskal. The authors deal with main components of Czech national security system: armed forces and police, integrated rescue system, intelligence services, municipal police and private security agencies (the role of which in national security system is underestimated). The book also describes the UN and other international organizations, NATO, EU and OSCE, together with their security strategies. The world state of affairs is serious, namely with the relation to terrorism after 9/11 2001 attacks. The old security concepts are being re-evaluated, simultaneously with new risks classification, e.g. in the context of the so-called Copenhagen school (theory originating in Copenhagen, Denmark). It is a descriptive publication, by its structure targeted above all for university students, but suitable for readers who are interested in security problems. |
Calculating Physical Condition and Nutritional State of the SoldierMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc., Ing. Pavlína VasickáVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 135-147 Physical condition and nutritional state of soldiers were monitored among members of KFOR mission by means of anthropometrical measurement of physical changes, defined above all by the so-called Mass Body Index, metabolic exchanges, and contents of fat in a body. The evaluation was done in picked-up clusters, formed on the base of physical activities of personnel. Verifying was carried out by means of the Wilcoxon test, non-parametric statistical test for the case of two related samples or repeated measurements on a single sample. The test involves comparisons of differences between measurements; the null hypothesis is specified. The alternative hypothesis assumes clusters, different in physical characteristics, with notable statistical differences. Among other results, in 2005, 57.10 per cent of military personnel between 25-35 years were overweight. |
Wild Cards in the Future Development of Word's Security (Trends till the Year 2040)Nonreviewed - OtherPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhD. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-17 This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens. |
Territorial Administrative Authorities of Some NATO Member StatesInformational pagesMjr. Ing. Bohuslav VlčekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 86-93 Similar to the Czech Republic, all NATO nations have their own military territorial administrative authorities that both execute tasks of state administration and at the same time fulfil assignments of territory defence. Their overall numbers differ and mostly depend upon the fact whether the country has compulsory military service, alternatively military service is voluntary (professional army). Or as in the case of Greece, the scheme of Military Territorial Authorities is influenced by security situation in neighbouring areas. The author deals with Slovakia, Poland, Germany, Greece, and Spain. Those authorities have basic influence on recruitment, and manning, which is especially important in time of crisis, as the authorities have prepared manning system to increase numbers to prescribed volume. |
Is Building a Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone in the Near East Feasible?Informational pagesJUDr. Miroslav TůmaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 65-72 The establishment of nuclear-free zones in various regions covers roughly 110 countries and thus helps to the final aim--freeing of the world of nuclear, biological and chemical arms. Nuclear-free zones are suitable counterpart to other institutions to stop proliferation of nuclear weapons and the threat of its usage: Non-Proliferation Treaty, Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention, Chemical Weapons Convention, Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The risk of nuclear proliferation in the Near East is high, the main obstacle lies in different attitudes of key actors to the successive operations: whether to create peaceful arrangement among all involved states as a first step (proposed by Israel), or preferably to renounce atomic weapons (proposed by Arabic countries). The author suggests rethinking security interests in the Near East, to remove deployment of nuclear weapons from military doctrines, to concentrate on soft security to bolster up mutual trust, to create security guarantees and transparency in the region. |
Cataclysm Scenario 2050-Imagining the UnthinkableNonreviewed - OtherProf. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-10 The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic. |

