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The Future Objectives of the Armed Forces of the Czech RepublicNonreviewed - OtherIng.Josef Procházka, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 31-38 The author of this article considers the prospective changes in the development, character, missions and tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic, Those changes are deduced from the changing security environment and long-term development trends. To meet new demands, we must continue in building interoperability and compatibility. The battlefield operations will be planned and controlled by the systems of "Network Centric Warfare" and "Reach Back Operations". It will not be necessary for a commander to be in physical contact with operational theatre. Electronical high speed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance will enable the high pace of military operations (together with common analyses, integration of collected data, evaluation of enemy's intents and activities). This will enable to build a credible defence, in the frame of collective security system, hand in hand with other NATO allies. |
The White Paper and the Security of the Czech RepublicOpinions, controversyPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 86-92 The existence of the Czech Army is at state. We need to get over present cut in military budget, ill-advised savings, without searching for new appropriate financial and material sources. To save something important means always to sacrifice or to give up something. Some security and military experts wish to dissociate themselves with approved methods. They think that the White Paper doesn't express opinions on many important things. It assumed that after five years there will be need to revise this White Book. So, proposes the author, wouldn't be better for us to regard the White Book only as an analytical document containing certain proposals for the following Defence Strategy of the CR, as originally intended? |
Engineering Aspects of Doctrine "Deployment of Ground Forces in Operations"Military professionalDoc. Ing. Jaroslav Zelený, CSc., Ing. Jan Mazal, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 146-161 The article deals with the problems of current "military engineering" in Czech Army, which arose during drawing up the "Doctrine for land forces operations". The content of this article consists mainly of three parts. The first one has to characterize some doctrine development aspects from the engineer's contributor point of view. Secondly, to adduce requirements for the content of a doctrine which are consequent to NATO main military engineering documents, e.g. MC 0560, AJP-3-12(A) and ATP-52(B). Thirdly, this level has to evoke resourceful discussions on topical military engineering within military community and to contribute to the mutual opinion consensus achievement. |
Military Decision-making Process and Advanced Methods of Managerial DecisionsMilitary artIng. Pavel Zůna, MSSVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 22-37 The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles. |
Public Procurements: Themes for Further Developing backed by White Paper on Defence in Connection with Governmental Assessment of Public ProcurementsInformational pagesProf. PhDr. František Ochrana, DrSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 105-117 The White Paper on Defence is a frame document that only points out main directions of military activities that further must be worked up in detail at all levels of defence department. This study presents all possible themes in the field of public procurements. As he set principles in the Whiter Paper correspond to those set in governmental document Public Procurements, it depends only on MoD experts to what measure they meet governmental requirements and implement them into drafted concept materials, incorporating rules for placing, assignment, rating, examination and audit. |
Private Military Companies (New Elements in Operational Environment)Military artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 71-96 This article deals with PMSCs as a relatively new phenomenon in warfare areas. It is open to discussion whether private military companies and the private contractors that they employ, should be treated just like any other transnational industry, or whether they should be treated like mercenaries under international law. As it happened in many countries, private companies and private contractors operate in a legal vacuum. From a strictly legal point of view individuals employed by private military companies are not to be considered as mercenaries. The private military industry offers a wide range of services. Procurement of military services by individuals and private firms has developed in a direction that had probably not been anticipated in previous years. Some military analysts say that the exclusive role of the state in the domain of defence and security is outdated and should be re-examined. |
Alliance's New Strategic Concept (Discussion Continues)ReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-15 The NATO's New Strategic Concept is only starting point to open discussion on a wide range of security problems. At the beginning there is a description of Czech home politics, attitudes of Czech political parties toward NATO alliance. The author explores the history of NATO's identity crisis. In recent years, different security optics of the members splintered NATO. The US wants an expeditionary alliance with a global reach, the Western Europeans hold to a vision of a regional club of liberal democracies, the Central Europeans have a wish so that Washington would stand by them when they will find themselves pressured by Russia. NATO is divided on how to reform its decision-making processes and how to fund and resource its home and away missions. In Afghanistan, the Alliance faces the most difficult operational challenge to date, with a real possibility of strategic failure. The overarching problem is how to define the core business of NATO: cyber defence, energy security, WMD proliferation, stability and reconstruction missions, out-of-area missions, territorial security, enlargement, partnership-building. The discussion over the New Strategic Concept needs to reorder the question how to define NATO's appropriate roles and go from there. |
The Methods of Preventive Evaluation of Risks in Military Training (Hazard & Impact Index)Military professionalNpor. Ing. David Řehák, Ph.D., plk. prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc., prof. Ing. František Božek, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 150-159 In fact, we have no universal method for evaluating impacts and protection of nature during military exercises and training. Establishing Environmental Training Group (NATOTraining Group/Army-Sub-Group) revolutionized the ways in which hazards were defined and analyzed to help communities protect themselves against these perils. Newly developed Training Impact Matrix/ Hazard & Impact Index methods enable truly to assess environmental dangers of military materials, vehicles, activities, energy consumption, and their impacts on important localities. Many features of above mentioned methods were introduced by Czech representatives in 2000 at Aachen (Germany). The index of environmental acceptability was further elaborated by Czech experts, among others by the authors of this article. It enables set levels of environmental dangers, their impacts, independently from organic structure of national forces, or individual countries. The article is accompanied by tables, mathematical formulas and patterns of calculation risk categories. |
Decision-making and Planning in Defence DepartmentMilitary artPplk. Ing. Radek DubecVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 38-46 The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems. |
The Czech Republic and Its Participation in European Military Transport OrganizationsInformational pagespplk. Ing. Martin Rejzek, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Luděk HradeckýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 83-93 The NATO Washington Summit in 1999 discussed Defence Capability Initiatives to increase Alliance defence potential together with capacities for accelerated deployability and mobility of NATO forces. This fact was underlined during Prague Summit 2002. One of Prague Capabilities Commitments is the requirement of deployability and sustainability in operations. Among others, this requirement is met by Memorandum of Understanding and bilateral agreements. The Czech Republic is involved in activities of international organizations, enumerated in this article. We support a principle of specialization, the concentration to limited, part-time scale of transport capacities operating for Czech peacekeeping missions. Active participation in the Movement Coordination Centre Europe could be the leading pattern for synergic cooperation in the field of strategic transport. |
The Analysis of Main Problems of New War Veterans (ret.) with the Accent on their Admittance to Labour MarketInformational pagesPhDr. Viktor Meca, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 114-129 The purpose of this analysis is to trace contemporary position of recent war veterans, members of missions abroad after 1989 after they retired. Above it concentrates on their problem on home labour market, eventually on psychic disorders, negative after-effects or syndromes, possible assistance and support on the part of state, eventually of Czech Ministry of Defence. The article is divided into two parts. The first one analyses accessible statistical data concerning participants in foreign missions and at the same time collected data serve for drafting hypothesis tied with a research segment of this paper. The second part of this study evaluates results reached, based upon anonymous questionnaires completed by retired new war veterans in the period from December 4, 2009, till January 25, 2010 |
New Global and Regional Actors and World and European SecurityReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 30-37 Taking into account the prepared 2011 Security Strategy and the White Paper on Defence in our country, due attention ought to be paid to political ambitions and economy influence of emerging actors, both world and regional. In ten or twenty years to come we shall face basic transformation of international system. Today, there are four main global power centres: North America (United States, Canada), the European Union, China and Japan. The author of this study concentrates predominantly on their economy strength that is also a base of all sources spent on armed forces. Among emerging powers belongs above all India, regional power in South Asia, Brazil in Latin America, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico. They together cover 52 per cent of word's economy production. Different interests give rise to various disputes, but they are able to act cohesively against e.g. decisions by G-20. Among other's the article is accompanied by the table comparing military powers of the USA and Russia. |
Theory of Gravity in War on International TerrorismMilitary artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 47-64 Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society. |
Does China Conquer Also Europe? (Reflections over Security Analyses and Prognoses)Informational pagesPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr.Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 94-102 The gravity of this article is laid down on the present-day state of affairs. China bought Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek obligations, i.e. China lent a hand to those countries (so did the European Union). In this way, China increased its influence in Europe. Stabilized Europe is necessary for Chinese export, it was not mere charity. Defence expenditures of People's China has reached 100 billions USED a year. Supposing the Chinese are intended to reach world's domination, they should stick to this kind of policy and they should not try to acquire the dominance by armed force. China behaves like an asymmetric power, knowing well that it can't surpass the U.S. by arms. China does not want to repent Russian mistake to be "over-armed" by America in futile arms race. Still, there is plenty of free space to compete with the U.S., e.g. cosmic or space competition, computer and Internet technologies. |
Posttraumatic Stress DisorderInformational pagesIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 94-113 The PTSD is an emotional, anxiety disorder that might develop after exposure .to a terribly frightening, life-threatening, or otherwise highly unsafe experiences. Recently, we have witnessed quite inappropriate behaviour of the Czech Army soldiers in Kosovo (KFOR) and Afghanistan (ISAF). The Ministry of Defence came to the conclusions the Czech Army soldiers ought to be immune to PTSD, but so far there has been is no serious psychological research, no survey conducted by Czech Army Mental Health Services and no information how many Czech soldiers returning from the duty in Afghanistan or other missions abroad are suffering from PTSD. It is high time to take important initial steps in the care over Czech army veterans, because competent professional soldiers, with years of experience, can also often break down from accumulated stress. This was illustrated by the events in KFOR and ISAF last year. |
Food Terrorism and AgroterrorismMilitary professionalIng. Hana Vlachová, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 160-168 People commonly imagine terrorist attack as hijacking or improvised explosive device hidden in crowded place. However terrorists can also attack against food, cattle, farm crops or water resources. These kinds of attacks can be ranked among agroterrorism or food terrorism, whereas agroterrorists attack against cattle, farm crops or water resources; food terrorists attack against foodstuffs. This paper is intended to provide information about agroterrorism and food terrorism as possible forms of wilful violence. Food security became discussed issue especially after anthrax incidents in 2001. There are many authorities that deal with these issues, for example EU, NATO or World Health Organization. |
Knowledge from the Research into Nourishment Background of Czech ServicemenMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 148-163 The article deals with nutritious conditions of professional soldiers of the army of the Czech Republic in foreign operations. The way of food subsistence in KFOR and ISAF missions was evaluated. Results reached of performed investigations were summarized; collected data of respective observations were used for processing. The article is supplied by the description of various methods used for above mentioned measurements and data processing. The second part of study also contains the interpretation of |
Security Preconditions and Threats (Economy, Religious and Cybernetic Menaces)PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-52 One of main task while preparing new security documents is to identify, analyze and evaluate newly emerging, self-generating security threats. They menace cybernetic, economy, bank, and religious security. The special menace, as for inner security it is lobbyism. Cybernetic threat is today regarded as more dangerous than nuclear strike. The American lived through those experiences in Iraq. Another example is cyber attacks on Estonia in 2007 that swamped websites of Estonian organizations, including Estonian parliament, banks, ministries, newspapers and broadcasters.The attacks triggered a number of military organisations around the world (including NATO) to reconsider the importance of network security to modern military doctrine. There is a paradigm: the more modern country, the more risks are opened. The situation is complicated by the fact that in sophisticated society there is hard to identify attacking enemy. The author underlines that we are the last member nation in the EU that has no official CSIRT (Computer Security Incident Response Team) to react cyber /terrorist attracts. |
The Assessment of Political Risks in the Selected Countries: Multivariate Statistical MethodsInformational pagesIng. Jakub Odehnal, por. Bc. Ladislav DudekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 111-119 The paper deals with the data were obtained from the set of variables published in the International Country Risk Guide. The variables were as follows: Government Stability, Socio-economic Conditions, Investment Profile, Internal Conflict, External Conflict, Corruption, and Military in Politics, Religious Tensions, Law and Order, Ethnic Tensions, Democratic Accountability, Bureaucracy Quality. To analyse the current situation in selected 140 countries, authors employ multivariate statistical techniques. They classify the analysed countries by means of cluster analysis to prove the existence of differentiated groups. The results were evaluated with the help of a dendrogram. The conclusions indicate that traditional NATO member countries achieve above-average values in the selected variables. |
Discovering Future as a ChallengeBook reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 195-200 The identification of security threats and subsequent risks is the base on which we form security and military strategies. It is also the core of all security scenarios. That's why we must welcome all books dealing with futurology predictions, like The Cognition of Future as a Challenge by Martin Potůček at al, Karolinum, Charles University. He summarizes knowledge and experiences done by CESES, the only scholarly lab dealing systematically with drafting up visions and strategies the Czech state might be confronted with. The CESES is a Czech acronym, which stands for the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague. |
Strategical Command and Control in Public Administration and Policy (A Book on Czech Strategic Documents)Book reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 170-171 It is a book review over the book by Prof. F. Ochrana (editor). Its authors tried to define dimensions and leading actors of the so-called strategical governance in the conditions of the Czech Republic with a special respect to strategical planning in public policy. Two chapters of this book are concentrated on military and defence problems. Predispositions for strategical control are backed by the creation and implementation of strategical documents. Among further themes discussed belonged also the White Paper on Defence. We specifically need single or comparative case studies that examine the process of formulating security strategies and their implementation, the interaction between respective processes at national and international levels, and the results of security policy implementation in respective cases. |
Obama's First Year in the White HouseReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-23 President Barack Obama came to power at a difficult time in America's history. Home and foreign policies are hard to manage, among others, as we are on the threshold of post-ethnic society, and in the war with terrorisms. Obama does not give up American leadership, but he is seeking to find the balance between security and liberty, between power and freedom in the world, broadly speaking. As the consequence, Mr. Rašek presumes emerging the new global security situation: the rise of multipolar world, divided into several new political spheres. This author's opinion is backed by comments by reputable world's political analysts. As far as Euro-Atlantic relations are concerned, or relations with Russia, there are excellent prospects, namely there is the progress with Russia on arms control-part of Obama's determination to put the world on a path toward nuclear disarmament. The author ascribes the drop in Obama's popularity to failed healthcare reform; outside the US, to the fact that Obama is not able to define clear goals and missions in Afghanistan. |
The Relative Leverage of Combat PowersMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 74-85 The overall purpose of this paper is to describe the way the Alliance and the also the Czech Army is going to apply the leverage of powers while conducting operations in the future. The article shows in details that the relative combat power analysis requires an assessment of factors either directly or indirectly affecting the potential outcome of the operation. In order to improve military knowledge and operational thinking within the Czech Army it is recommended to improve the quality of officers' military training and personnel preparation in accordance with Czech MoD White Paper on Defence. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of Alliance or the Czech Ministry of Defence. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part II)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 53-64 The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations. |
Emerging New Threats in Unstable WorldReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., prof. PhDr. Martin Potůček, CSc., MSc., PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-21 The article identifies new threats of global character influencing global security and quality of life. The inspiration is drawn from the debate over proposed updated Czech security strategy 2011, where several security scenarios were drafted. It is a free sequel to the study "Wild Cards in Future Development of World Security" published in this review in No. 2, 2008. The titles of some chapters are as follows: The Collapse of World's Monetary System and Global Economic Warfare, Crisis of Global Government, The Shortage of Key Commodities (oil, gas, coal, raw materials, water, foodstuffs), Migration, Organized Crime, European Union prior to Disintegration, The Crisis of NATO, New Religions, Will Rich People Live Longer?, etc. |
Management of Sources at a Level of Army Unit: Commander's PositionMilitary professionalDoc. dr. Luboš Štancl, CSc., pplk. Ing. Karel VávraVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 120-137 Topical problems of insufficient military budget, limited means are a drive force for searching unoccupied financial means to saturate set goals and ensure their unbiased reallocation and rational exploitation. The necessary prerequisite is control implementation and managerial accounting. This ought to create primary predispositions for introducing managerial accounting system, which would be oriented not towards financial, and property operations, but towards effective economy. The article describes phenomena tied with an army unit, together with the position of its commander in the process of gradual implementation of integrated informational system of state treasury, which is most manifested in the field of planning, budgeting and accounting. |
NATO is Preparing a New Strategical ConceptNonreviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-21 The primary purpose for NATO enlargement, covering first three countries of the so-called Visegrad Four and later Slovakia, was the necessity to fulfil "security vacuum" in Central and subsequently in Eastern Europe which came into existence after the fall of Soviet empire. Membership of those countries helped to fix criteria for admission of other states to the Alliance. Today, the NATO alliance stands in front of new important challenge: to work out a New Strategic Concept agreement in late 2010, based upon the idea saying that the security of Euro-Atlantic region is tied with and depends on the safety of the whole world. This safety concept will able to be realized only by means of global strategical governance. More then predicting expected security and defence ideas, the author reopens a broader discussion about the real meaning of NATO membership. He also repeats and enumerates risks and threats we are facing today. |
The Lines of Operation Concept (Part I)Military artIng. Ján SpišákVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-49 There are two great interpreters of the Napoleonic experience, Jomini and Clausewitz. Both were interested in the application of military force to achieve political goals. The article familiarizes readers with Jomini's theoretical fundamentals of operational design elements, namely the lines of operations. Jomini left a great mark on the details of strategic planning: campaign planning, the selection of the theatre of operation, the base of operation, the line of operation, and decisive points. At the end of this process of selection was the final deployment for the decisive battle. Jomini's major contribution, then, was to provide the geometry of the battle space. In his investigation of the nature of war he developed several key operational concepts. As an operational art tools they help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept of operational lines is evolved in all operational functions in terms of ongoing military missions. |
NATO Response ForceMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 46-71 This article illustrates the troubles encountered with development of the NRF. The NATO Response Force is a highly ready and technologically advanced force made up of land, air, sea and special operations forces components that the Alliance can deploy quickly wherever needed. The NRF is intended to be a transformational force that will not only be able to meet the security needs of NATO in 21st century but also serve as an agent of change whereby all the member nations of NATO will be able to bring capabilities, and concepts of operations into their national forces. Undoubtedly, the NRF will not provide a basis for solving all of complex challenges. But it does offer an opportunity for experimentation and testing-the essence of military transformation-and the forging of creative solutions. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of NATO or EU. |
Predictive Methodology in Intelligence ServicesReviewedBc. Petr ZelinkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 29-39 This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence. |

