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Virtual University of Jihad: Training and Schooling Islamic Terrorists in CyberspaceInformational pagesMgr. Jiří HodnýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 115-120 This article is discussing the role of the Internet in the Islamic terrorist movement. It describes how the nature of the Internet provides the perfect medium for terrorism. Major terrorist organizations now have their own production capability, ranging from video capture, to video editing, to distribution, but, these organizations also have an advanced understanding of the concepts of influence, information warfare, and the power of targeted messages. This is further highlighted by the fact that among al Qaeda's original organizational structure was a committee dedicated to publicity and the media. The internet plays the role as a means of propaganda for recruitment and fund-raising, shaping public opinion in the Muslim world, terrorist training and instruction, operational planning for attacks, communication and open source information. |
ABM a SALT I: Security Dilemma, Cooperation and Rational ChoiceInformational pagesMgr. Jan LudvíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 73-77 The SALT agreements seem to be outdated, nonetheless the current discussion on the U.S. missile defence systems must be perceived in its complexity and theoretical framework, with AMB treaty as a cornerstone. The article suggests that ABM treaty and Interim Agreement, forming together the outcome of SALT negotiations, demonstrate that rational decisions are fully compatible with arms control system and realist approaches to the international relations. The author supposes that cooperation and mutual trust can be achieved through negotiations and perception of other participants. He also takes into account the impact of Soviet nuclear build-up in 1960s is and its consequences. The important conclusion can be derived from this fact: arms control should be expected more in times of military balance rather that the domination of one world's actor. Key words: disarmament, arms control, mutual assured destruction, and antiballistic missile systems. |
The Development of Security Policy and Strategy of the Czech Republic 1990-2009ReviewedIng. Vladimír Karaffa, CSc., PhDr. Miloš Balabán Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 5-22 This study is based on a paper presented at the conference with the same heading taking place on January 8, 2009. First, the authors enumerate starting points of Czech defence and security polity together with key factors influencing their developments. The whole scale of new threats-from WMD and ballistic proliferation to cyber attack and even non intentional threats like climate change and pandemia-are to be addressed not only in NATO but also in the EU. Existing states of affairs are gradually reflected by Czech security and defence documents: Security Strategy 1999, 2001, 2003; Military Strategy 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008. In this historical context we joined NATO defence alliance and took part in peacekeeping missions abroad. Previous twenty years when we lived in peace could be regarded as a challenge to build Czech statehood. There is no time like a present. Only the future will show us whether we mastered it as much as we could. |
The Legacy of Sammuel Huntington (From the Prevalence ofIdeological Conflicts to the Clash of Cultures)Book reviewPhDr. Antonín Rašek.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 152-155 This essay is based up ideas summarized in Huntington's famous book The Clash of Civilizations. According to Mr. Huntington, there are seven or eight world civilizations. The West is "unique"-but its values are not universal. World politics is entering a new phase, in which the great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of international conflict will be cultural. The decline of the nation state from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism, among others. The author of this essay introduces individual world's cultures and traces prognostic visions both from historical and topical point of view. He warns against intervening into civil wars, as we know very little about their cultural background which must be respected; our interventions might be disserviceable. |
Administrative Culture and the Economization of Activities in Defence SectorNonreviewed - OtherProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč CSc., brig. gen. prof. Ing. Rudolf Urban, CSc., dr.h.c.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 21-35 The administrative culture is something like "mind set" of "software" of organization, its philosophy, a part of which is the so-called economization. The process of economization of defence sphere will lead to further decrease in numbers, cutting down redundant materiel, supplies. Such economy measures should produce savings in terms of hundred millions Czech crowns, side by side with the increased potential of the whole military organization. The authors introduce Activities in Defence Sector the CAF model (Common Assessment Framework), based upon the Model Excellence of the European Foundation for Quality Management, expressed by the following formula: factors involved equals personnel times activities (education) times facilities (investments). There are some similarities between army management and business administration, so the economy instructions ought to be part of overall military education and training. |
Missions and Tasks of ACR Logistics Since its Establishment till PresentMilitary professionalProf. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 142-148 The author discusses the issues surrounding the construction of modern logistic support for the Czech Army as it transforms from a conscript to an all professional force of agile, light forces, with high reliability and low support requirements. The basic philosophy is to create comprehensive system that would offer complex service for a commander in the field of materiel, technology and medical services. The logistics reform must be supported by enhancing communication systems (Information Logistics System) and by seeking the ways of rationale savings, to reach the highest level of compatibility with logistics systems of other NATO nations. "Time Based Competition" and "Time Compression" must be accepted at all levels of logistics system both in peace and field conditions. In the future, the security problems will be managed more by civilian means than by hard force. The goals will be political, economical and cultural. Those changing threats will ask logistic support to be more flexible, mobile, integrated, compact and precise. |
Testing and Validation in VTÚPV Vyškov, VOP-026 Šternberk, s.pMilitary professionalIng. Lubomír PřikrylVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 121-134 The Military Technical Institute of Ground Forces (VTÚPV) Vyškov was established in 1978 as a research authority and its activities have covered both requirements of the Army of the Czech Republic as well as the civilian sector. The VTÚPV Vyškov Division specializes in equipment, material and technologies of the ground forces. It solves tasks ranging from theoretical analyses and applied research and development to the prototype production phase, testing and validation, and small series production. It is an accredited testing laboratory for testing products and systems; it operates as an accredited certifying body for a large number of products. Since 2003 it is a part of the military repair shop VOP-026 Šternberk, s.p. (state enterprise) founded by the Ministry of Defence. The article enumerates its activities, namely just finishing semi-anechoic hall EMC (electromagnetic compatibility), the most important and most expensive investment project since the late 80s. |
Fourth Generation Warfare Evolves, Fifth EmergesNonreviewed - OtherJ. NastoupilVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 15-23 The key fact is that changes in the political, economic, social, and technical spheres are making it possible for a small group bound together by a cause to use new technologies to challenge nation-states. 4GW (Fourth Generation Warfare) uses all the shifts from a mechanical to an information/electronic society to maximize the power of insurgency. Fifth-generation warfare (5GW) will result from the continued shift of political and social loyalties to causes rather than nations. It will be marked by the increasing power of smaller and smaller entities and the explosion of biotechnology. The purpose of this article is to widen the discussion on what forms 4GW may take and to offer a possible model for the next generation of war: 5GW. Adapted from Military Review, May-June 2007. |
The Ways of Content and Language Integrated Learning in Military University SystemLanguage preparationRNDr. Eva Staňková, Mgr. Alena MullerováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 84-89 The EU language programme called Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) issued in 2003 comprises the practical idea of effective language preparation by means of vocational subjects discoursed in foreign languages. This way of learnig is suitable specially for graduates from military schools who are going to cooperate with their counterparts from NATO countries. Its a great challenge both for English learners and their language instructors. This article summarises the results of case studies related to prospective accreditation of vocational subjects lectured in English at Defence University, e.g. methods of instruction in mathematical cartography (maps projection) or e-learning (ToolBook II Instructor). For evaluation of case studies covering both possitive and negative aspespects of this method of learnig, the authors used even students opinions. |
Ten Years Since We Joined NATONonreviewedPhDr. Zdeněk BorkovecVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 23-28 This year we marked the 10th anniversary of our full membership in NATO. We've verified that the nation can become a "full fledged member" in eight or ten years at earliest. Signing the treaty, you became "only" a freshman. You must learn everything, from "consensus building" to forming informal coalition. The author of this article, Deputy of the Czech Permanent Representative to NATO, summarizes the history of fulfilling the membership's prerequisites and following difficult process of implementation of fundamentals and requirements, e.g. the so-called NATO legal acquis (Status of Forces Agreement), Planning and Review Process, setting Force Goals, fixing Identification Friend or Foe on Mi-21 aircraft assigned for Air Policing, problems with developing home infrastructure for Host Nation Support. We joined common security planning, took part in NATO Security Investment Programme and Conference of National Armaments Directors. But today's organization is quite different that used to be, the role and missions have changed. We must be prepared to meet them too. |
Operational Areas and BG EUMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 19-36 Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. |
The Phenomenon Ivan Gabal (Talking to a Brick Wall, Karolinum, 2008)Book reviewPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 156-157 We have no many characters that unlike Ivan Gabal could move on the edge of practice, academic world and politics, dealing with incomparable themes: foreign policy, security, terrorism, Europe vs. the Czech Republic and vice versa. Referred chapters are entitled NATO, EU, Radar, the Army of the Czech Republic. Among others, Mr. Gabal compares Czech army with its English and American counterparts, evidently better than ours, because those armies have not undergone such troublesome history in the last hundred years as the ACR. Ivan Gabal's editorials, sociological analyses, critical and professional articles from 1997-2007, when focusing on safety and the Army of the Czech Republic, uncover a striking lack of conceptual planning and incompetence of the post-November political elites. |
Information Process as a Part of Command and Control System (Parti)Military professionalPplk. Ing. Petr RypVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 149-153 The change of security situation in the world, international ties and last but not least changes in operational environment, exploitation of new technologies are reflected by changes in defence planning, military organization, forces engagement and operational assessment. Time, flexibility, cooperation in coalition operations, interoperability in technology spheres play incommutable roles together with trained personnel. Command and control (C2) is self-contained system depending on many factors provided by the so-called System of Communication and Information. At present it is the very base for information collection, decision-making process, preparing variants of operation for both commander and his staff. Among others the author writes about Network Enabled Capability system introduced into Czech armed forces. C2 programme is also a part of educational curriculum at Defence University Brno. |
Decision-Making in Commander's PracticeMilitary professionalIng. Hubert Štofko, prof. Ing. František Mazánek, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 131-135 The act of making up commander's mind is one of most important roles of leaders/managers. The science of managing or controlling ought to be employed even in everyday life of the military. The skilful or resourceful use of materials, time, etc. are the main characteristics of command and control. The purpose of this article is to outline connections in management theory, namely managerial posts, coupled with command. How we can use management theory in shooting drills or marksmanship theory in commander's decisionmaking. The authors explain sequential managerial functions, planning, organizing, staffing, analysis and their implementation into shooting practice. The article is accompanied by several schemes. This exercise can be also used in modelling of combat clashes, as a part of simulations in computers and as a factor of the professional preparation of servicemen. |
2nd Part: Topical Problems of Theory and Practice of Army Economy Theoretical and Methodological Prerequisites for Functional and Effective Allocation of Sources in DefenceReviewed - ResearchProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 71-86 Economy of production, economies to scale, in civilian sector are quite different than economy pattern in defence sphere, as specifying the allocation of sources for the Army of the Czech Republic is not based on exact calculation of costing, payments as we could not observe the substantial terms of comparable partial and overall expenses. At present, we are not fully able to compare defence outputs, nor effecitivity of spent sources. |
Economic Aspects of the Acquisition in Defence DepartmentInformational pagesIng. Aleš OlejníčekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 88-99 This essay depicts he alternative approach to investments in public sector. Author expresses his belief on evaluating and rating investments in public sector in the same way as in private sector. The simple theoretical analysis and foreign experiences give enough evidence about feasibility of such approach even in defence sector. Nowadays, in governments across the world, public-sector financial systems are being transformed more fundamentally than at any time in decades. The changes are taking place to respond to a number of deficiencies of government accounting and financial-management system. Foreign experience has proved that a system of output appropriation provides a workable alternative to the traditional input-based system and can yield substantial advantages for both departmental management and government decision makers. |
Will Europe Defend Itself without Americans? Reflections over Europe Security "Twenty Years" AfterReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 61-70 There are many items in American foreign policy the Europeans do not agree, namely its tendency towards "strong world leadership". On the other hand, the Americans would prefer stronger Europe, namely in time of world's economic crisis when US defence expenditures are practically frozen, and when pre-emptive strategy by president Bush exhausted most of American sources. Even the Europeans feel that they should profile themselves as independent, strong power, but their Common Foreign and Security Policy is still more political declaration than really military strategy. Many security experts suggest that the Lisbon Treaty excludes NATO membership as far as questions concerning defence are concerned. NATO alliance still expects new strategy that ought to be approved in December 2010. The authors predict the necessity to strengthen the so-called Second Pillar of the EU, as the United States are going to be more oriented towards cooperation with Japan, South Korea and Australia. We must bear it in mind, drawing up long-term visions of Czech Security policy. |
Defence Principles of the Czech Republic "2030" (Informative Review)Book reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 175-178 Many security experts are of the opinion that the global security situation has been going worse af ter September 11, 2001. Even though Balkan wars ended, in fact, there are high tensions tied with Kosovo?s proclamation of independence, or in similar state of affairs in Macedonia. In Iraq, there some elements of improving, but in Afghanistan there are a lot of problems, we must mention tensions in Iran concerning building its nuclear capacities and missile tests, Russian-Georgian conflict, which is reflected in the policy of NATO enlargement: Georgia, the Ukraine were not accepted to NATO alliance. The reviewer highly appreciates this anthology of security studies, with the same title as this article. Editor Vlastimil Galatík, published by Defence University Brno, 2008. |
A European Way of "Humane Security"ReviewedIng. Vladimír Karaffa, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 3-10 Many people in the world lead intolerably insecure lives. In many cases insecurity is the consequence of armed conflicts in which civilians are deliberately targeted, sometimes, their insecurity has natural causes, like earthquakes, hurricane, tsunami or disease, they suffer from famine. Security is a broader term, covering not only military threats. Human rather than nation-state security should be at the heart of European policy. Instead of defeating enemies or pacifying warring parties, EU missions should focus on protecting civilians, through law enforcement with the occasional use of force. EU member states ought to support a new framework for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The following seven principles are underlined: (i) the primacy of Human Rights, (ii) clear political authority, (iii) multilateralism, (iv) a bottom-approach, (v) regional focus; (vi) the use of legal instruments, (vii) the appropriate use of force. In fact, underlines Mr. Karaffa, humane security concept forms the very base of common European culture and identity. |
The Place and Role of Private Companies in Securing Defence Means in GermanyInformational pagesProf. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc., por. Ing. Martin KlusáčekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 85-106 The very modern trends in the forces of advanced countries are hiring private civilian companies, private enterprises, in everyday performance of armed forces. As this phenomenon is very frequent, the authors decided to go into its roots, to find a common cause of this fact. In the past, armies were closed societies, self-sufficient, independent from states. Today, gradually, soldiers became more concentrated on key military tasks and supporting functions are transferred to private companies. The German Armed Forces (Bundeswehr) takes over mechanics used in private sector: it integrates economy dimension. Above all, it is transparency of bookkeeping, which ought to give evidence on savings in everyday life of forces. The Bundeswehr uses the so-called Market Testing, as a means of practical cooperation for engaging private capital. All those fact are cited as thoughprovoking. |
1st Part: Topical Problems of Theory and Practice of State Defence Economy Topical Problems of the Theory of Economy of State Defence at the Beginning of the 21st CenturyNonreviewed - ResearchDr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 5-24 The author follows the mainstream economics, i.e. leading economics of defence policy, ranging from economics of defence in the nuclear age, via economics of Iraq conflict, to current fight against terrorism. New paradigm must be drawn, taking into account source management, the distribution of economics weight of individual national economies of all countries participating in the fight against global terrorism. |
Kolik nas co stoji?Prof. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2005, Vol. XIV. (XLVI.): 27-39 |
European Security in Global Context (Reflections over Security Analyses and Prognoses in the World, the EU and the CR in 2003-2008)ReviewedPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 23-30 The document "A Secure Europe in a Better World" approved in 2003 has introduced the so-called the European Security Strategy. The authors use this framework to refer to the whole set of organisations, people and activities, both military and civilian, to ensure capabilities to be delivered effectively and efficiently, both in current surroundings and in preparation for the future. They are members of the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which has conducted a wide-ranging research work to detect the long-term trends, factors and actors shaping the position of the Czech Republic in European environment. The article illustrates the evolution of the key structural factors affecting change over the two decades to come-demography, the economy, energy, the environment, science and technology-and addresses some of the main questions concerning the future of the international system. |
Command and Control in EU OperationsMilitary artPplk. Ing. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 29-51 This article deals with the EU command and control functions and provides basic information on the structure and capabilities of the EU CCS in Battle Group EU operations. The author describes political and strategical levels CCS (COREPER, GAERC, COPS, CivCom, EUMC, EUMS, BDE HQ, prospective EU FHQ). Only US, EU and E3 (Britain, France, Germany) are capable to realize integrated expeditional operations. The ACR can work only with cooperation with them. The Czech Republic as a small EU member state is actively engaged in the building of the Battle Group EU. The Czech Army is going to increase its expeditionary capabilities as demanded and be prepared for a broader range of conflicts and crises in the vital area of the EU concerns. At present, the ACR is able to carry out a self-supported, integrated expedition operation only on the edge of all its strength. The political leaders must bear this fact in mind, as the army mustn't be overburdened, otherwise it might lose its credibility. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. |
Terminology Problems and Language Preparation at the University of DefenceLanguage preparationPhDr. Jana Kozílková, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 168-172 This essay presents the development of opinions on the role of language training of students and learners of foreign language (officer candidates) within the development of speech and understanding capabilities in recent years. It analyses the ratio of general and special languages at military system of language preparation. Increased attention is paid to the acquisition of the so-called special competencies. The article also mentions the activities of educators in the field of terminology. The most stimulating and demanding is a stress upon professional communication at magisterial stages of university education. In conclusion, further trends in given areas are emphasized. The article was written to mark 10th anniversary of the first terminology conference in defence sector and joining the Czech Republic into standardization process that took place at Defence University Brno. |
Pretesting at the Faculty of Education, Masaryk University (STANAG 6001 Tests)Language preparationMgr. Helena Rýlichová, Mgr. Sonia ŠamalíkováVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 124-127 In October 2008, language knowledge was pretested at the Department of English Language and Literature at the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University in Brno. The test was developed in accordance with NATO Standardization Agreement 6001 by the examiners of the Defense Language Institute (DLI) of the Czech Army in Vyškov. It covered listening comprehension and reading comprehension tests at SLP 1-2 levels. The tests were organized on behalf of the Department of English Language and Literature by Mgr. Ivana Hrozková and Mgr. Sonia Šamalíková (former Director of DLI Methodology and Testing Department) with a total of 80 students participated in the pretest. The outcomes of such cooperation reiterate the importance of strong ties between both institutions in the field of methodology and testing. |
Cataclysm Scenario 2050-Imagining the UnthinkableNonreviewed - OtherProf. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-10 The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic. |
Expeditionary Capabilities and Food AcquisitionMilitary professionalIng. Pavlína Vasická, prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 147-154 The ACR is going to take part in expeditionary operations abroad, so we must be prepared to supply and sustain such forces. Problems with the provision of the bakery products in the military operation and mission include diet; economical, technological, safety; and psychosocial aspects. The ground forces are to be effective. Now we are developing premixes that meet the conditions of nutritional content of bakery products and the indigenous products with the protective function. The new utilized technology is based on preparing dough with improvers. Cost analysis of producing bread and pastry in operation was carried out with a surprising outcome: the costs of our own production are approximately 4-6 times lower than the costs of products from the local or other producers or participating armies (which is contrary to present-day official policy buying from outside suppliers). |
The Unrealistic Nature of Nuclear Disarmament (Comments on the article Will Urgent Appeals of Former US Politicians Raise Support?)Opinions, controversyPlk. Ing. Tomáš RakVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 58-60 Politicians Raise Support?) by Col. Ing. Tomáš Rak. The fact that nuclear weapons has not been employed for more over 60 years doesn't mean that they are of no use. On the contrary, they still serve as the most effective tool of determent. At present, we do not face some superpower, but a multitude of various small, namely Islamic groups. The nuclear threat has returned in the form of terrorists who, unlike Soviet Union leaders, would not hesitate to use such weapons. We face a very real possibility that the deadliest weapons ever invented could fall into dangerous hands. No treaty, no ban on such weapons, no international law will guarantee that they won't be used by the so-called "non-state actors," potential "rogue states", or messianic groups expecting the end of the world. The author recollects the case of A. Q. Khan, who sold his country's nuclear secrets, helping to increase the proliferation of nuclear technology on a wide scale. |
Wild Cards in the Future Development of Word's Security (Trends till the Year 2040)Nonreviewed - OtherPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhD. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-17 This opening study is written by two authors, members of Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague, which is an interdisciplinary research and education unit engaged in the development of theory, methodology and practice of exploring possible futures, and the application of analyses and forecasts in decision making. The authors propose to supplement prognostic scenarios by the so-called wild cards that represent something unpredictable, extra players or actors taking part in a global politics. They compare wild cards of 2001 with the present-day situation, and then predict state of affairs till 2040, among others, the islamisation of Europe and hispanisation of the United States. The purpose of this is to promote dialogues between military and security experts, politicians, civil servants, civil sector activists, as well as individual citizens. |

