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Czech Military Review

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Partnership for Learning Program: Online Drill with Native Speaker As a Supplement to Full-time Study of English at the Defence University

Language preparation

PhDr. Ivana Čechová Ph.D., Mgr. Radek Nedoma, RNDr. Oldřich Kříž, Jiří Mrenka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 128-136

Making use of multimedia, ICT, in a foreign language teachinglearning process is the effective way how to influence motivation and results of the educational process. Based upon the Czech-Canadian Partnership for Learning Program, the project provides synchronous communication between a native speaker and a student during language training, regardless the distance. Mutual communication is an opportunity when the students/learners can use their second language not only in professional discussions, but also in solving problem matters, relevant to their study branch, interests, current events or hobbies. The authors' experience and its analysis form also a part of this paper.

Program bezpecnostnich (obrannych) investic NATO a plan operacni pripravy statniho uzemi Ceske republiky

Plk. v.z. Ing. Jan Englich, plk. v.z. Ing. Jan Strbačka, CSc., Ing. Radovan Soušek, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2005, Vol. XIV. (XLVI.): 44-52

New Approaches to Long-term Defence Planning: Scenarios and Operational Concepts in the Future Security Environment

Reviewed - Review

Ing. Vlastimil Galatík, CSc., pplk. gšt. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav Krčmář

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 23-28

The article explains defence planning of armed forces deployment that ought to by the base for all long haul visions and concept texts for army development and its operational employment. Operational scenarios and concepts form together key elements of defence planning process, both factors enable to military organizations not only to identify future security challenges but also to react to challenges in being. It is not contrary to the so-called capability planning process as this is a manly armed force potential backing our ability to face threads and risks in the future. The example of the United States involved in three asymmetric conflicts is a warning example showing the necessity of the complex and coordinated strategical approaches.

Civil-Military Reflections: Does the Army Need Its Own Value Code? (Military Culture, Professionalism, and Constabulary Force)

Informational pages

Mgr. Tomáš Kučera

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 71-82

Relations between a military and a civilian society belong to the core issue of civil-military studies. This article reflects main ideas and concepts used in theoretical and analytical literature, including seminar works by Samuel Huntington and Morris Janowitz. A military culture, military ethics and influence of new technologies, full-volunteer army and new missions on military culture are discussed. An abstract term "military" can change very significantly in accordance with actual military culture, perceptible to the fact how civilian society accepts military values. Therefore, not only size and equipment determine how particular armed forces look like. The author introduces the term Constabulary Force reflecting the idea that primary purpose of forces today are low-intensity conflicts and operations other than war.

European Legislation and its Role in the Fight against CBRNE (Introductory to Problems)

Military law

Poručík Ing. Martin Klusáček

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 156-167

Nowadays, with the potential employment of Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear Explosives (CBRNE), terrorism poses a threat to all countries over the world, it becomes scary phenomenon at a global scale. The author introduces key agreements dealing with this subject: Chemical Weapons Convention, European Agreement concerning the international carriage of Dangerous goods by Road, European Agreement concerning the International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Inland Waterways, Regulations concerning the International carriage of Dangerous Goods by rail, and so on. The main objective of the EU is to introduce such legal measures so that it would be extremely difficult for terrorist groups to legally gain CBRNE materials. The purpose of this essay is to analyse legal frame of CBRNE materials and to stress the protection against their misusing within an authority of the ACR.

The Czechs in Afghanistan

Informational pages

RNDr. Nikola Hynek, M.A., doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 88-100

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

Wars of the so-called Post-Confrontation Period: Successes, Paradoxes, Challenges

Military art

Doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 40-51

Even after the Cold War, our world is full of local and international conflicts. There were dozens of wars, fringe clashes between local opposing groups in Africa, Asia and so on. Among them there were four wars of lager size, with more than thousands of deaths in each of them that could be characterized as international wars: Desert Storm 1991, Iraqi Freedom 2003, Allied Strength 1999, and Enduring Freedom 2001. Now we can look at them from a distance ...217 Problems tied with those large-scale wars have several levels: supranational (international) level and military level, being accompanied by paradoxes: international and political paradoxes and military ones. This influenced structures and methods of training and preparation of Australian, Britain and US forces. The lessons were embedded into their military concepts, rules and regulations, e.g. Complex Warfighting (Australia), Future Land Operating Concept (UK), Field Manual: Interim Counterinsurgency Operations (US). New roles of military forces, global and local implications, ought to be embedded also into the structures and concepts of the Army of the Czech Republic, concludes the author.

NEC-IV Conference Report

Informational pages

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 129-130

In November 2007, under the auspices of Lieutenant-General Vlastimil Picek, Chief of the General Staff ACR, there was the 4th international conference held in Prague, dealing with command, control in Network Enabled Capability environment: NEC-IV. The conference was organized by the Institute for Strategical Studies, Defence University Brno, in cooperation with the Department Communications and Information Systems, DoD, and the Department of the Development of Forces-Operational Department, DoD, last but not least with a civilian Carolina Agency, as NEC principles could be utilized even in civil sector. The conference is regarded as a step from theory to practice, both in the field of education, preparation and practical exercises supported by simulators and trainers. In the immediate future, we must develop the integrated environment for EU Battle Groups, brigade task force, covering the whole operational spectrum, so that we could reach a synergy effect in education, pedagogy, science and research.

Logistics' Perspectives in the Professional Army of the CR

Military professional

Plk. prof. Ing. Petr Hajna, CSc., Ing. Vladislav Vincenec

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 139-146

At present, the current reform of our armed forces is oriented towards qualitative changes. The Brigade of Logistics Support is going to be the unit designated for transportation, maintenance and repair, technological control of arms and vehicles, it must be capable of fluent supplying advances positions, namely by propellants, ammunitions, and further dozens of tasks in frame of joint task groups (National Support Element) or as a HNS (Host National Support). All units will be connected by multifunctional logistics informational system. Logistics system must fulfill its tasks even in time of peace, and thus be prepared for time of crises. The operational engagement in the early 21st century will require light expeditional forces capable of easy and rapid deployment. The logistics support ought to be more mobile, more integrated, more compatible and more precise, with the quick accession to spare parts and maintenance support.

Some Theoretical and Methodological Starting Points for Examination and Involvement of Outside Sources for the Use of Armed Forces

Nonreviewed - Research

Dr. Jindřich Nový, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 56-63

All NATO nations and their armies are looking for effective exploiting social sources for defence and security. It is clear now that effective spending of public expenses asks for changed infrastructures of forces and their activities. It is necessary to form teams of experts who will cooperate with leading defence officials while setting the most suitable variants of further advance.

Europe and Radical Islam: Islamisation of Europe

Informational pages

Pavel Krčílek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 68-80

The major topic of this article is the problem of radical Islam in the context of contemporary as well as historical development in Europe. In the course of several chapters the author describes basic facts of the modern phenomenon of Islamisation, impending over Europe. His study is supported from several sources, e.g. Gadhafi M., Islam taking over Europe (2006); or reports issued by the Netherlands Security and Intelligence Service (2005); Swiss Country Report on Islamisation (2007), etc. There are over 50 million Muslims in Europe, if Turkey is added to the EU, Europe will have another 50 million Muslims. When terrorism can be considered as a danger, Islam should be considered as a risk to generate such a danger. The democratic state is fully entitled to diagnose any kind of "side effects" as a result of Islamic preaching. This is not judging the religion but its effects on the system. The solution is long-lasting: to support cultural integration, because only a few European Muslims are involved politically, or take part in terrorist attacks.

Teaching Terminology at the Economy and Management Faculty, UO Brno

Conference

PhDr. Alena Langerová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 113-115

The Task of "Long-Term" PIRs in Peace and Supporting Operations (Priority Intelligence Requirements)

Military art

Doc. Ing. Oldřich Horák, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 61-66

Answering the commander's intelligence and decision needs is an uneasy task for any person responsible for intelligence. PIR information help the commander to keep knowledge on relevant environment during peacekeeping, stability and supporting operations, which are different from PIR in offensive and defensive operations. In combat operations, PIR focuses on enemy's military capability and intentions. Intelligence collection in stability and support operations may adjust to the people and their cultures, politics, religions, economics and related factors. The commander must have information telling on current enemy's threats, fighters, as well as on information ranging from standard of living of local population, supplies of electric power, to building a municipal school. Shortly, to have information behind the traditional scope of PIR. But the current Czech regulation MO/VZS 2003 does not explain similar situations, the only examples we can find are those in US Army Field Manual 3-07 Stability Operations and Support Operations.

From the History of Professional Armies Deployment

Informational pages

Pplk. Ing. Ivan Němec, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 97-102

From the point of history, at present, there is a turn in the deployment of the Czech army. The turning point lies in philosophy change concerning security and defence of our country, as well as in army build-up by itself. In the past, our armed forces used to be semi-professional army, i.e. the core of forces was formed by professional soldiers (officers, NCOs), supplemented by conscripts. In time of peace, all males were prepared and trained during their compulsory military service, after that they were trained as compulsory reserves. In war they could be immediately deployed in war organization. This deployment was planned well ahead, so was its logistical support. Upon examples the USA and Germany the author explains weak points of present organization, which-according to him-constitute a danger for wartime deployment of the ACR. The problem is in questions of mobilization, as volunteer soldiers represent only 0.6 per cent of respective population.

The European Union Military Staff (EUMS) performs early warning, strategic planning and situation assessment.

Informational pages

Ing. Josef Nastoupil

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 97-101

As the EU is conducting its third military operation, the EUMS has become a key player in the development of the European Security and Defence Policy. In order to provide political control and strategic direction in a crisis, the European Council (Nice, December 2000) decided to establish new permanent political and military structures within the Council of the European Union: PSC-Political and Security Committee, EUMC-European Union Military Committee, EUMS-European Union Military Staff. The EUMS is responsible for peacekeeping tasks, tasks of combat forces in crisis management (including peacemaking), and further tasks identified in the European Security Strategy, such as joint disarmament operations, support for third countries in combating terrorism and security sector reform. As the only permanent integrated military structure of the EU, the EUMS has become the military linchpin of the EU. (Truppendienst, Bundesheer,

Another True Hero Has Gone Away: Major General (ret.) Miloš Knorr, M.B.E

Personal data

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 180-181

E. Mr. Knorr came from the family with pedagogical background, his father was a principal in a small Moravian town Ivančice. He acquired flawless knowledge of French and German, which was very useful after he emigrated in 1940. In France he became a personal adjutant to Division Commander. After the fall of France, in Britain, apart from other military occupations, he took a position of paratrooper drill instructor. In June 1944, his ship of the second invasion wave was hit by Germans and wrecked. No Czechoslovak soldier took part in invasion; in this second wave he was one of three. In Europe he interviewed captured German soldiers, dressed in English uniforms. He was decorated by the Order of the British Empire (MBE). In his second emigration after in 1948 he joined American CIC agency. In 1954 he left this service and started to work for the Insurance Company of North America. In 1995, by the order of the Czech president, he was promoted to the rank of Major General.

The Genesis of Welfare Benefits of Czech Soldiers

Informational pages

Kpt. Ing. Veronika Mazalová, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Petr Musil, Ing. Eva Vincencová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 136-149

In the last few years, the Czech Republic has been undergoing deep social changes in which the Army of the CR plays an important role. The soldiers risk their health and even lives, therefore they should take advantage of all benefits offered by state social security. Their professional career, promotions and advances must be taken in account when they are leaving the military service. On the other side, we must also reflect economic capacities of the Czech Republic. The authors enumerate all conditions to be fulfilled, so that soldiers were entitled for veteran benefits, together with the history of various benefits, the ways they used to be handled in the past. Legal adaptations are not systematic solutions. As we have no special law on public service, from which veteran benefits ought to be deduced, we have no general base for proper legal amendments, now being discussed.

Operational Areas and BG EU

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 19-36

Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

Afghanistan: True Reality

Informational pages

Podpraporčík Jan Smetana

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 100-107

The deteriorating situation in the Afghanistan region poses a security threat not just to the United States, but to every single nation. It was from that remote area of the world that Al Qai'da plotted 9/11 and subsequent attacks in Europe and elsewhere. Reading news about Afghanistan today gives rise to the question why the situation in this country is such as now really is. Ordinary mass media depict the country often in a confusing manner: Afghanistan as "a country, full of terrorists and uneducated barbarians, longing to destroy western civilization and kill". The author describes bad security situation which presents problem for both coalition soldiers and local Afghanistan population. At the same time we must realize that involved soldiers are exposed every day to asymmetric enemy forces, they stand face to face to mortar danger that could be hidden in for example in every car passing by.

Clarifying the Notion of Direct Participation in Hostilities (The Protection of Civilians)

Military law

RNDr. Marek Jukl, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 168-180

International humanitarian law hinges on the principle of the distinction between combatants, whose function is to conduct hostilities during armed confl ict, and civilians, who are presumed not to be directly participating in the hostilities and, therefore, entitled to full protection from attack. They lose this protection only if, and for as long as they "directly participate in hostilities". After several years of expert discussions and research, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has published the Interpretive Guidance, which aims to clarify the meaning and consequences of direct participation in hostilities under international humanitarian law (IHL). This article is devoted to the explanation of this notion. The presented interpretation follows the Interpretative Guidance published this year.

The Current Reality of Nuclear Threat

Reviewed

Mgr. Jan Ludvík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 16-23

This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

Decision-making and Planning in Defence Department

Military art

Pplk. Ing. Radek Dubec

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 38-46

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical assumptions of planning and strategical decisionmaking in Defence Department and Czech armed forces. The author finds connections and similarities among others with public sector and civilian structures tied with budget spending. The strategical level of planning is a highly complicated and expert procedure. At present, planning process in defence department, within MoD sector, is specifi ed by the Order of Defence Minister No. 33, 2004. In this document, there are highly elaborated principles and rules of planning of activities and development implemented in defence sector. The article is based upon papers and reports presented at the Defence Sources Course, MIDMC 2001-06, Resources Management Institute, USA, held at the Military Academy Brno in 2001, and documents dealing with managerial problems.

Military Keynesianism, Defence Expenditures and the Growth of Economy Militarization in Advanced Countries of World

Informational pages

Ing. Vendula Hynková, Ph.D., doc. dr. Luboš Štancl, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 108-120

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

Additional Protocol to the Geneva Conventions Adopting Another Distinct Emblem (The Red Crystal)

Military law

Ing. Mgr. Rostislav Richter

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 181-190

There are three protective emblems in use: the Red Cross, the Red Crescent, and the Red Crystal. As protection symbols, they are used in armed conflicts to mark persons and objects (buildings, vehicles, etc.) which are working in compliance with the rules of the Geneva Conventions. The cross, crescent or crystal must be used alone for what is termed "protective" use, to safeguard relief workers. The article predominantly deals with the third protocol emblem also known as the Red Crystal. In short it summarizes its history. Because of the controversy over Israel's national society Magen David Adom and a number of other disputes, the introduction of an additional neutral protection symbol had been under discussion for a number of years. In fact, this symbol is quite unknown in our country.

Theory of Gravity in War on International Terrorism

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 47-64

Official objectives of war on terrorism are as follows: we must face theorist threats, prevent terrorist strikes; suppress the power of terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda. War on terrorism is not a classical or conventional warfare; the term is wide-ranging, covering longterm strategies of national importance. The war on terrorism and employed means are also a source of controversy. It is a question of adequacy of used tools. It is necessary to implement the new strategy of improving conditions in Muslim countries to eliminate their background supporting negative religious and political attitudes towards democracy. Outlined ways of "smoothing edges" in economical, social spheres can noticeably change hateful attitudes of Muslim population towards values of Western democratic society.

"Fog of War" in Pieces of Classical Authors: Clausewitz a Tolstoy (Problems of Uncertainty and Chance Events In War)

Military art

Bc. Tomáš Kučera

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 51-59

The proponents of Revolution in Military Affairs claim that modern military technology will lift a "fog of war". In this article the term "fog of war" is described and illustrated in a work of Carl von Clausewitz who is supposed to introduce this term, used also in the famous novel War and Peace by Leo Tolstoy. These classics show us that uncertainty and chance, in other words fogs of war, are essential to human mentality. They will be present as long as war remains within a scope human endeavour. Emphasizing that military technology is equal to lifting the "fog of war" can lead to situation in which only trained commanders are supposed be able perfectly address problems in "chessboard" of war or computer simulators, but they will unable to manage a real world full of chaos, as they not used to count with uncertainties.

Jan Eichler: International Security in the Era of Globalization. (Informative review)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 191-195

This is another publication by Mr. Jan Eichler. It consits of three parts: the fi rst one defines nearly three dozens of basic terms in the field of security, the second one deals with wars in the 90?s, and finally third part concentrates on terrorism. The book has evidently pedagogical bias, with explanatory character. Under the influence of foremost sociologist Ulrich Beck, Jan Eichler interprets risks as ?social phenomena? derived from threats. The author also evaluates wars in Africa, Asia and Latin America, in Serbia or the Persian Gulf, which took place in 1990-2001. There were 120 armed confl icts, with 94 % victims from among civil population (compared with 50 % of WWII and 15 % WWI). In those wars bellingerent parties deployed weapons of all sorts, with the exception of WMD. As far as international terrorism is concerned, the author sees as its primary characterists the absence of warning before terrorist attacks are accomplished.

General Podhajský: Cruel History of the Romanticized Period of Pre-war Czech Army Build-up

Book review

B. Pernica

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 168-170

It is a review of the book by Col. Ing. Josef Fučík (ret.), the former member of advisory board to this magazine. Pre-war Czechoslovakia was a parliamentary republic, typical for its instability. In 1918-1938 a total of 18 governmental administrations superseded, there were 11 defence ministers. Sometimes this position was hold by the prime minister. The same was with the position of Chief of the Main Staff of Czech forces. In 19191939 five generals were replaced, two French and three Czechoslovak. One of them was Alois Vácslav Podhajský, who held this position only for a short time, from September 1 to October 14, 1926. As an "old Austrian soldier", he went through many nuisances and sorrows both in pre-war army and namely after World War II.

What A Commander Needs from System of Education? (Response to an article by Brig.Gen. Zůna and Lt.Col. Pernica in Military Review No. 3, 2010)

Opinions, controversy

Podplukovník gšt. prof. MUDr. Jan Österreicher, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 80-81

The author, director of military hospital base, reacts favourably to the article mentioned above. He would like to add something from the practical point of military commander. In his unit, there is a deficiency of attested graduated surgeons, whereas there are a lot of graduated nurses, rescue workers, because of a wide offer of civil colleges and universities. They study in their leisure time and thus gain higher educational background. In consequence, his unit does not need graduates from Defence University in Brno. He comes to the conclusion that necessary commissioned officers could be recruited from among ranks of non-commissioned officers or sergeants, by means of additional schooling and scholarships, or by recruiting graduates from civilian colleges and universities.

The Expanding Role of China and India in Word Security Prognosis (Prognostic Scenarios)

Informational pages

PhDr. Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 54-64

The theme of this study is a prognostic reply to the anticipated rise of mentioned two Asian powers from the point of international relations. Their growing power will precipitate consecutive results-the end of American leading role and coming multiple world. Will it produce world's stability or security threats? The author presents several scenarios. All take note of 9/11 attacks and a possible crash of two form of capitalism, democratic in the West and authoritarian in China and Russia. India has a special position. The economic success of those systems is a great chance for humane rights and civil liberties. World's dominance will be divided among the U.S., China, partly the EU, with strong position of regional powers, India, Japan, Indonesia, Iran, South African Union, Egypt, Brazil, Mexico and others. Russia will lose his superpower position, its internal economic and ethnical problems make it weak, and therefore Russia will attempt to form military coalition with China, which will lead to new world's bipolarity.

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