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The Security System of the CR and the Necessity of its Adaptation to Cumulative Effects of ThreatsReviewed - ReviewPhDr. Libor StejskalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 37-47 The term of "growing complex of threats" covers higher and higher probability of concatenation of various intercommoned, mutually tied factors reflecting structured technological and informational reality of global society, making their solving by traditional means of security system extremely difficult. "Crisis situation" represents more general problem of natural disasters or technology breakdowns that are influencing one another, that cause great distress or destruction, in an unexpected manner, activating subsequent threats of so far unforeseen threats. For that reason we must adapt Czech security system to new liquid, instant and indivisible complex threats. |
Some Aspects of Forming Modular Task Force in Chemical Units (Groupings), ACRMilitary professionalMjr. Ing. Pavel OtřísalVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 138-145 This paper analyses some of the accesses to developing modular structures of task forces, built not only on a base of combined arms, but also even the base of special units, formations, Czech Chemical Corps. The analysis is derived from documents, doctrines, at both political-strategic level and military-strategical level within state defence command. Moreover, the article offers information related to operational-tactical level of command and control. At the end, the author evaluates some possible impacts of modular structures on practical activities of forces. It is necessary to define those impacts in a framework of particular projects, dealing with the formation of modular structures. |
Tactical CommunicationsMilitary professionalPodplukovník Ing. Lubomír StřídaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 164-169 Communications in which information of any kind, especially orders and decisions, are conveyed from one command, person, or place to another, are basic feature of all civilian organizations, namely as far as managerial work is concerned. In military, they are used within the armed forces, usually by means of electronic equipment, including communications security equipment, organic to the tactical forces. They are implemented in integrated surrounding NEC (Network Enabled Capability) by means of widening and updating field communication system of the AČR. NEC together with other key operational capacities will enable to change information power into higher operational effectivity and strength of Czech armed forces. |
NATO and Russia at the End of First Decade of 21st Century: Mistrust, Common Interests, Co-operation?Informational pagesPhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 89-99 Relations between NATO and the Russian Federation are one of key factors influencing overall policy of the whole North Atlantic Alliance. They are complicated and sophisticated questions still predisposed by the heritage of the Cold War.But there are mutual fears, common security problems they both have to counter. NATO policy must be established upon present-day reality. It is self-evident that there are common fields of common interests in which mutual balance must be reached. There are among others: armament, preventing arms proliferation, halting proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical agents, antimissiles defence, counter-terrorism, drugs smuggling, open sea security, common peace operations. After two years the Russian-Georgia war started, military cooperation between Russia and NATO was re-established. Separate problem in midterm prospects presents the solving of conflict in Afghanistan. |
The Report by Madeleine Albright's Team and Its Wide-ranging Contexts ("Council of Wise Men" and Drawing up the Alliance's New Strategic Concept)ReviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 15-30 This concept has been preparing since the early 2009. In short, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation must be increasingly prepared to intervene far beyond its borders. In the coming decade, NATO will have four central inter-related military missions. The first requirement is to "deter, prevent and defend" against aggression, so as to ensure the political independence and territorial integrity of NATO member states. The report insists on the need to send out military missions beyond the treaty area "when required to prevent an attack on the treaty area or to protect the legal rights and other vital interests of Alliance members". Any expeditionary mission must be based on the principles of the UN charter. Another key item is to cooperate better with those partners, and others worldwide, in order to tackle the new threats posed by cyber attacks, piracy, arms proliferation and energy supply insecurity and climate change. However, in order to achieve the new goals, NATO "must halt the precipitous decline in national defence spending", and to introduce reforms to make spending more efficient. |
Clarifying the Notion of Direct Participation in Hostilities (The Protection of Civilians)Military lawRNDr. Marek Jukl, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 168-180 International humanitarian law hinges on the principle of the distinction between combatants, whose function is to conduct hostilities during armed confl ict, and civilians, who are presumed not to be directly participating in the hostilities and, therefore, entitled to full protection from attack. They lose this protection only if, and for as long as they "directly participate in hostilities". After several years of expert discussions and research, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has published the Interpretive Guidance, which aims to clarify the meaning and consequences of direct participation in hostilities under international humanitarian law (IHL). This article is devoted to the explanation of this notion. The presented interpretation follows the Interpretative Guidance published this year. |
WikiLeaks Case and Its Reflections in World's Security CommunityInformational pagesPhDr. Antonín RAŠEKVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 129-137 Czech dailies and weeklies publicised their analyses of the diplomatic dispatches released by WikiLeaks. Some were concerned in world's politics, but higher attention was paid to 1,271 dispatches from Prague. According to the dispatches, the U.S. Navy wanted to purchase 23 Russian anti-ship missiles to obtain the weapons from Belarus through Ukraine, with a Czech arms dealer. However, the Czech government decided to derail the plan by not granting the Czech middleman the needed permission to export weapons from a dictatorship like Belarus. Various cables also detailed a dispute in the area of arms technology. Some observations from the dispatches dealing with characteristics of Czech prominent politicians are amusing. Overall, the United States evaluated the CzechRepublic positively, as an economically mature country and as an ally. |
What Type of University Education for Military Professionals is Necessary?Opinions, controversyDoc. RNDr. Ladislav Halberštát, CSc., plk. Ing. Vladan Holcner, Ph.D, mjr. Ing. Pavel Foltin, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 60-70 The paper is a contribution to the ongoing discussion regarding training, drills and education of military personnel. It indicates a comprehensive solution of the issue both in national and international connection of the current approach to military vocations, life-long learning Vojenské rozhledy 1/2011 and expected deployment of the present-day armed forces. Using results of a research conducted within the Czech Ministry of Defence and Armed Forces, authors specify roles of individual stakeholders in the process of training and education in the military and define prerequisites of an effective military educational and training system. The authors treat this problem in context of the so-called National Qualification Framework, multinational project of EU member states Military Erasmus, activities conducted by European Security and Defence College (ESDC) and others. |
Jan Eichler: Terrorism and Wars in Era of Globalisation. (Is it possible to prevent wars?)Book reviewVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 172-174 The author Jan Eichler works at the Institution of International Relations Prague, so those are the themes he is professionally involved in. His publication deals with security threats and their assessments at the beginning of 21st century. This second edition of his book is amended by several wars taking place since the first edition was released. They were wars between Russia and Georgia 2008-2009, Israel vs. the Palestinians 2008-2009, several conflicts in Africa, Columbia, and Sri Lanka; ISAF operations in Afghanistan; in Iraq the new attitude of the USA towards conflict solution. Somalia represents a typical failed state with warlords, criminal gangs, Somalia and sea piracy is a mutually tied problem the word community was not able to solve. Last but not least, there are dangerous activities of Islamists in North Africa. Even though those mentioned conflicts are only regional, their consequences are global. They therefore need the involvement of international organizations, the EU and the UN respectively. |
The Czech Fiscal Policy for Internal and External Security after 1998Opinions, controversyPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 66-75 When the Czech Republic joined NATO, some structural changes in the national security sector were expected. Actually, changes in national defence strategy were declared by national strategic documents, such as military and security strategies. In addition to it, since 2002 the Czech Republic has been taking part in Global War on Terrorism and, generally speaking, it implies higher expenditures spent on security purposes. Surprisingly, many things have remained the same. The strategic documents were mostly ignored, deep changes did not happen due to fiscal policy based on a traditional incremental budgeting. Proportions between expenditures for internal and external security were only fluctuating. |
New Approaches to Long-term Defence Planning: Scenarios and Operational Concepts in the Future Security EnvironmentReviewed - ReviewIng. Vlastimil Galatík, CSc., pplk. gšt. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav KrčmářVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 23-28 The article explains defence planning of armed forces deployment that ought to by the base for all long haul visions and concept texts for army development and its operational employment. Operational scenarios and concepts form together key elements of defence planning process, both factors enable to military organizations not only to identify future security challenges but also to react to challenges in being. It is not contrary to the so-called capability planning process as this is a manly armed force potential backing our ability to face threads and risks in the future. The example of the United States involved in three asymmetric conflicts is a warning example showing the necessity of the complex and coordinated strategical approaches. |
Civil-Military Reflections: Does the Army Need Its Own Value Code? (Military Culture, Professionalism, and Constabulary Force)Informational pagesMgr. Tomáš KučeraVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 71-82 Relations between a military and a civilian society belong to the core issue of civil-military studies. This article reflects main ideas and concepts used in theoretical and analytical literature, including seminar works by Samuel Huntington and Morris Janowitz. A military culture, military ethics and influence of new technologies, full-volunteer army and new missions on military culture are discussed. An abstract term "military" can change very significantly in accordance with actual military culture, perceptible to the fact how civilian society accepts military values. Therefore, not only size and equipment determine how particular armed forces look like. The author introduces the term Constabulary Force reflecting the idea that primary purpose of forces today are low-intensity conflicts and operations other than war. |
New Defence Capabilities for New NATO Missions (Lisbon 2010)Pplk. Ing. Ivo Pikner, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Miroslav Krčmář, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 3-8 Article deals with new insights into the Alliance missions for the upcoming period of five to ten years that are to be conditioned by achieving higher level of future military capabilities for provision of defence and security within the Alliance and its Partners. Some initiatives are described that are needed to be implemented to achieve the required capabilities and also necessary resources and process measures imposed to the Alliance member states and the Alliance as a whole are indicated. The new Strategic Concept aims to define NATO as a modernized Alliance and a cooperative team player in a globalized world. It gives a comprehensive framework for preserving the core ideals of NATO while transforming it into a dynamic Alliance capable of confronting the unconventional and unpredictable threats that define today's international security environment. The article refers to the ideas and thoughts mentioned in a study of the US NDU's Center for Technology and National Security Policy. |
The Czechs in AfghanistanInformational pagesRNDr. Nikola Hynek, M.A., doc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 88-100 The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future. |
The Participation of Civilians in Military Activities: Military-Governmental and Military-Industrial ComplexInformational pagesPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 101-113 The article deals with the problem of a certain militarization of a society, supposing country's military establishment is expanding its scope of activities to government or economy. From this point of view, the military and their civilian counterparts could be seen as "imperium in imperio" and such a model of military as a state within a state. There are a military-governmental complex and a military-industrial one in each state and both ought to be under civilian authorities' control, in order to prevent the democratic state from being fallen under influence of this complex. Although the notion was sketched more than fifty years ago, the military-industrial complex theory has been still living, and author gives some examples of the evolution of military-governmental and military-industrial complex. |
NATO is Preparing a New Strategical ConceptNonreviewedPhDr. Antonín RašekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-21 The primary purpose for NATO enlargement, covering first three countries of the so-called Visegrad Four and later Slovakia, was the necessity to fulfil "security vacuum" in Central and subsequently in Eastern Europe which came into existence after the fall of Soviet empire. Membership of those countries helped to fix criteria for admission of other states to the Alliance. Today, the NATO alliance stands in front of new important challenge: to work out a New Strategic Concept agreement in late 2010, based upon the idea saying that the security of Euro-Atlantic region is tied with and depends on the safety of the whole world. This safety concept will able to be realized only by means of global strategical governance. More then predicting expected security and defence ideas, the author reopens a broader discussion about the real meaning of NATO membership. He also repeats and enumerates risks and threats we are facing today. |
Evaluation and Certification CZE/SVK Battle Group EUMilitary artIng. Jaroslav KulíšekVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 11-40 To fulfil Czech obligation as an EU Battle Group Framework Nation according to the regulating document EU BG Training and Certification, the Czech Army is to certify that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU meet the standards and criteria stated in Standards and Criteria for EU BG. It is recommended that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification process should be analogous with NATO Response Force (NRF) certification procedure and practical methods. Further it is suggested that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification procedure is divided into several evaluation procedures: preparation planning evaluation, war-fighting evaluation, and technical evaluation. Each procedure will be developed by specialized teams with representatives in the sub-working group to ensure that the different procedures harmonize. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of EU Military Structure or the Czech Ministry of Defence. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. The written sources are listed in the matrix above. |
The Czech Republic and Its Participation in European Military Transport OrganizationsInformational pagespplk. Ing. Martin Rejzek, Ph.D., pplk. Ing. Luděk HradeckýVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 83-93 The NATO Washington Summit in 1999 discussed Defence Capability Initiatives to increase Alliance defence potential together with capacities for accelerated deployability and mobility of NATO forces. This fact was underlined during Prague Summit 2002. One of Prague Capabilities Commitments is the requirement of deployability and sustainability in operations. Among others, this requirement is met by Memorandum of Understanding and bilateral agreements. The Czech Republic is involved in activities of international organizations, enumerated in this article. We support a principle of specialization, the concentration to limited, part-time scale of transport capacities operating for Czech peacekeeping missions. Active participation in the Movement Coordination Centre Europe could be the leading pattern for synergic cooperation in the field of strategic transport. |
Operational Art: A different viewOpinions, controversyIng. Ján Spišák, doc. Ing. Milan Kubeša, CSc., Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSSVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 93-96 The article polemize against the content of the article "Operational Art" that was published in the previous issue of this Czech Military Review, 3/2011. The polemics points out that the author of the criticized article applied doctrinally incorrect terminology, he did not respect the valid standards of the military terminology and is cross-indexing to the old Allied standards. Such articles should present new lessons from field theory and practice, which would contribute to the professional preparedness of the military personnel, and to the required interoperability with our coalition partners. But according to the authors, criticized article is rather misleading. Key words: operational art, operations, operational concept, center of gravity. |
National Security Planning and the Issue of Varying Prices: MoD Case StudyInformational pagesPodplukovník Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 97-104 Government controls state executives by planning, i.e. a bureaucratic process providing sets of documents. Such plans ought to be feasible in an expecting resource environment. Approach and methods using for working out respective plans are supposed to be conforming to the purpose. In order to be realistic, a financial plan, a budget, should cope with environment of increasing and decreasing prices and exchange rates. This essay, as a case study, deals with the issue of adapting of the short and medium-term planes working out by the Czech MoD for purpose of programming, budgeting and purchasing. The case study shows that generally there is a long-run lack of interest in adapting of such planes to an environment of changing prices and volatile exchange rates. |
Wars of the so-called Post-Confrontation Period: Successes, Paradoxes, ChallengesMilitary artDoc. PhDr. Jan Eichler, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 40-51 Even after the Cold War, our world is full of local and international conflicts. There were dozens of wars, fringe clashes between local opposing groups in Africa, Asia and so on. Among them there were four wars of lager size, with more than thousands of deaths in each of them that could be characterized as international wars: Desert Storm 1991, Iraqi Freedom 2003, Allied Strength 1999, and Enduring Freedom 2001. Now we can look at them from a distance ...217 Problems tied with those large-scale wars have several levels: supranational (international) level and military level, being accompanied by paradoxes: international and political paradoxes and military ones. This influenced structures and methods of training and preparation of Australian, Britain and US forces. The lessons were embedded into their military concepts, rules and regulations, e.g. Complex Warfighting (Australia), Future Land Operating Concept (UK), Field Manual: Interim Counterinsurgency Operations (US). New roles of military forces, global and local implications, ought to be embedded also into the structures and concepts of the Army of the Czech Republic, concludes the author. |
Impacts of Warfare in Urbanized Terrain on Inexperienced Young SoldiersMilitary artDoc. Ing. Dušan Sabolčík, CSc.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 66-76 New technologies influence not only social advance, but also the development of armed forces. Present-time warfare is resolute, dynamic. In the 21st century, both low and high intensity conflicts, counterterrorist or stabilization operations might take place in urbanized areas, where casualties and material damages are high. New weaponry and technology make demands on military and professional training, self-control, psychic preparedness. In advance we must set rules governing the firing of weapons and use of force namely by soldiers involved in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency situations. Mental stress, emotional, or physical strain or tension of soldiers are manifested by fanaticism, looting, killing non-combatants, desertions or going away from military units without permission (AWOLs), depressed soldiers inflict wound on themselves, they misuse drugs or alcohol. The author cites factors increasing soldiers' resistance: high cohesion of units, tough training, relaxation, courageousness, high awareness of objectives of operations and war aims. |
The Strategy of DisinformationInformational pagesVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 143-145 The article is based mostly upon an essay Composants et caractéristiques de la stratégie de désinformation by Gula Csurgai. published in Revue Militaire Suisse, March, April, 2007. Disinformation is the deliberate dissemination of false information. It may include the distribution of forged documents, manuscripts, and photographs, or propagation of malicious rumours and fabricated intelligence. In the context of espionage or military intelligence, it is the deliberate spreading of false information to mislead an enemy as to one's position or course of action. It also includes the distortion of true information in such a way as to render it useless. Disinformation is used for preparing public opinion before military operations are opened, the conflict must be "personalized" (the fight of Good against Evil), arousing emotions, sustaining ignorance and confusion, targeting information flows, omitting pieces of information and pushing redundant information. It is necessary to emphasize the role of used language. This phenomenon is described in the famous novel 1984 by George Orwell. The words are capable to arouse concrete images that consequently influence people's behaviour. Disinformation should not be confused with misinformation, which is not deliberate. |
NATO's Strategic Concept: An Important Step Towards Military and Political Qualification of AllianceReviewedKpt. Mgr. Karel Zetocha, Ph.D.Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 3-14 The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document. |
Information Process as a Part of Command and Control System Part IIMilitary artPplk. Ing. Petr RypVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 93-100 The Command and Control process may be defined as an ability to determine what to do and implement effective actions. With the use of the Standard Operating Procedures, the commander must be able to realize set tasks in defined time. The C2 system must be able to monitor and collect data on the situation, to develop an understanding of the situation, to develop a course(s) of action and select one, to develop a plan to execute the selected course of action, to execute the plan, to include providing direction and leadership to subordinates, to monitor execution of the plan and adapt as necessary. The commander draws the picture of situation on the base of surveillance and data collection from various sources, classified and unclassified. The context of information is formed by means of paradigm of personal experiences of commander and his intuition. |
Hydrometeorological Service of the Army of the Czech Republic Celebrates the 90th Anniversary of its EstablishmentHistory pagesIng. Milan Skála, Ing. Eduard VařejkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 149-167 The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries. |
Operacni principy realizovane v prubehu rizeni operace "POVODEN 2002"Brigádní generál Ing. Jiří HalaškaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2004, Vol. XIII. (XLV.): 3-15 |
The Implementation of Defence/Military Policy in the Czech Republic: Little Stability of Governance and Unsuitable Management ConceptOpinions, controversyPplk. Ing. Bohuslav Pernica, Ph.D., pplk. Mgr. Pavel BalvínVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 101-113 The article deals with persistent problems of Czech military policy within 1993-2009, its achievements and failures. A new managerial concept, system planning, programming and budgeting, which superseded a communist central control, was not implemented fully because of governance instability. The office of Defence Minister was held by 11 persons within 1993-2009 (Czech Republic). Among others, it aroused the return of a concept of central planning in 2004, which was not successful, because it was not supported by institutions outside the MoD. The authors propose more transparency in military matters and better cooperation with academic community to prevent the repetition of concepts supporting short-term goals instead of long-term visions. |
The Current Reality of Nuclear ThreatReviewedMgr. Jan LudvíkVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 16-23 This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons. |
Predictive Methodology in Intelligence ServicesReviewedBc. Petr ZelinkaVojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 29-39 This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence. |

