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This article addresses vital issues of possible threat of nuclear weapons in contemporary world. First, the general nuclear order-particularly the NPT regime-is briefly examined. Analysis proceeds to a critical exploration of the prospective use of nuclear weapons by small nuclear states and the so-called rogue states. Some attention is also paid to the conflict between India and Pakistan, since these two states are often considered as the most dangerous from perspective of possible use of nuclear weapons. The author considers the threat of nuclear war between great powers and then the threat of nuclear terrorism. His analysis suggests that deterrence between great powers is reliably working. The threat from rogue states is limited by technological difficulties in process of development and production of nuclear weapons and limits of small nuclear arsenals. Even though threat of nuclear terrorism should not be underestimated, this paper argues that technical obstacles and availability of other comparatively cheap methods effectively reduce the terrorists' desire to acquire nuclear weapons.

The complex security strategy must pay attention not only to outer threats, but also to inner security risks. Social and cultural impacts of globalisation produced even to our country a rise of several extremist right-wing political groups inspired by or following the tenets of Hitler's Nazi Party, referred to as neo-Nazis, because they modify Nazi doctrine and because the original Nazi movement inspires them. Some forms of fascism are also anti-Semitic or xenophobic. On the contrary, Anarchism is a political theory opposed to all forms of government. Anarchists believe that the highest attainment of humanity is the freedom of individuals, unhindered by any form of repression or control. To accept matching strategy, we must know those theories, their international background, as those movements are usually tied with organized crime and terrorism.

The Ministry of Finance Regulation No. 415, 2008, sets the scope and structure of initial documents for midterm plans of state budget. The Regulation was further specified under the Order by Minister of Defence "Planning Activities and Development of Department", No. 22/2004, MoD Bulletin, October 29, 2004, now updated. It prescribes to follow the Financial Chapter of MoD by individual targets. The final objective thus becomes a specific indicator of defence spendings. This arrangement thus becomes a basic document for monitoring, evaluating and implementation of respective remedies. It will be tied with running Planning, Programming and Budgeting process. They both will share a common target database for data necessary for planning financial means. Its implementation should be accompanied by educational and schooling programmes for personnel involved, the author proposes.

There are anniversaries inviting us to stop to think about the last twenty years. In fact, this period covered the same time as the pre-war Republic had been in existence. The occupation Russian army was forced to withdraw, the first security and defence doctrine of the independent Federal Czech and Slovak Republic was implemented, armed forces changed their structures into brigade ones. We took part in the First Gulf, a total of 9,000 ex-career soldiers were legally rehabilitated. The former Czechoslovakia was divided into two republics. There were again and again reductions in numbers, budget cuts. In spite of difficulties, we joined the NATO alliance. Looking back is hindsight saying army bodies proved to be resistant, persistent in overcoming all problems. The article is an instrumental text preceding this theme issue focusing on history analyses of constitution of Czech security and defence after 1989. The author was the last Czechoslovak Chief of General Staff and the first Chief of General Staff of the Czech Republic.

It is evident that Barack Obama diverges from Bush's pre-emptive strategy. There are changes in style and contents. Obama begins to direct American policy more towards diplomatic negotiations instead underlining military strength. It is evident namely in proposed negotiations with Iran and in case of Russia, where he wants to overcome cooling down after Russia-Georgia clashes and gas crisis. He insists on avoiding unnecessary conflicts and puts stress on good relations with allies and building new partnerships. He is going to withdraw soldiers from Iraq and in spite of problems in Afghanistan to reduce U.S. military budget. Even though Obama wants to maintain American world's leadership, there are some signs of partial changes in American foreign policy, e.g. his orientation towards Asia suggests first signs of multilateral approach of post-American era. The author also mentions the question of "American radar" in the Czech Republic, the fate of which depends on Iran's nuclear power programme.

The main Alliance mission is to "safeguard the freedom and security of its member countries" and to "deter and defend against any threat of aggression against any of them". Those general tasks are tailored today to changed international security surroundings. In May this year, a report by the experts group was released, forming the basis for further negotiations over the new strategical concept of NATO. The experts produced a document of first-rate quality identifying main tasks NATO is facing today. At the same time this document redefines prospective directions the Alliance should follow in the years to come. Without a broad popular support NATO's engagements namely off European territory couldn't be vindicated and justified. The same is true as far allocation of sources for NATO missions and developing military capabilities are concerned. So, the communication with public thus becomes a further dimension of this highest strategic document.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

The Provincial Reconstruction Team of Czech Republic operates in very complicated conditions and environment that are in fact hostile. It can't be excluded that growing scepticism, today common among Afghanistan security experts, more or less could affects even Czech members of ISAF missions. This study deals with existing knowledge end experiences of Czech PRT in Afghanistan. It is divided into two parts. The fi rst one concerns with outside and inside factors infl uencing ISAF missions. It brings in details characteristics of geographical, historic ambiances in which ISAF mission are performed. The second part concentrates on tangible experiences of Czech PRT members, both in political and military spheres. Here the authors summarize conclusions and upon them they outline challenges for the future.

The important part of the forces transformation deals with the problem reducing in numbers of officers, namely field officers and general corps in the Czechoslovak Armed Forces and lately the Army of the Czech Republic. The main cause of this reduction was new concept of military career, as before the transformation it used to be a lifelong profession. The downsizing started in 1990 and it ought to have been finished by the end of the first period of the Czech Armed Forces Reform, as of 2008/12/31/, but it appears that downsizing is endless. The author quotes figures concerning numbers of officers; several rank charts and tablets with corresponding NATO and Czech grades respectively are used to demonstrate veracity of his statements. According to Lt.Col. Pernica, the downsizing is going to continue but no one knows how many officers for the all-volunteer Czech armed forces will be enough.

The article deals with the Declaration on Alliance Security issued in Strasbourg on 4 April 2009. The author enumerates its main items: reform of NATO structures, improving ability to meet the security challenges, strengthening cooperation with other international actors. Today we are facing global threats, such as terrorism, the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; our security is increasingly tied to that of other regions. Deterrence, based on an appropriate mix of nuclear and conventional capabilities, remains a core element of Alliance overall strategy. NATO will continue to play its part in reinforcing arms control and promoting nuclear and conventional disarmament in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, as well as non-proliferation efforts. The author is a strong supporter of Obama's idea of world without nuclear weapons; he hopes that this notion will be also reflected in preparing NATO strategic concept. They are also further points to be stressed, e.g., a cooperative partnership between NATO and Russia.

We have no many characters that unlike Ivan Gabal could move on the edge of practice, academic world and politics, dealing with incomparable themes: foreign policy, security, terrorism, Europe vs. the Czech Republic and vice versa. Referred chapters are entitled NATO, EU, Radar, the Army of the Czech Republic. Among others, Mr. Gabal compares Czech army with its English and American counterparts, evidently better than ours, because those armies have not undergone such troublesome history in the last hundred years as the ACR. Ivan Gabal's editorials, sociological analyses, critical and professional articles from 1997-2007, when focusing on safety and the Army of the Czech Republic, uncover a striking lack of conceptual planning and incompetence of the post-November political elites.

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

Animals have been used for military purposes from the ancient world to nowadays. Horses, elephants, mules and camels were carrying supplies and took part in battles. Dogs were trained for securing livestock and military camps. Soviet army used them as live mines during World War II. The U.S. Army explored the possibility of using bats as live incendive devices. Even the terrorists could use animals for destroying chosen targets in the same way armies used to do. The deployment of animals would be advantageous for any terrorist group because security forces would not expect this kind of attack. Up to now, there have been just a few cases of abusing animals by terrorists, e.g. for bomb laden mules or dogs carcasses which hide explosive devices. But animals could also help with the fight against terrorism, for example dogs or bluegill fish.

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

Relations between NATO and the Russian Federation are one of key factors influencing overall policy of the whole North Atlantic Alliance. They are complicated and sophisticated questions still predisposed by the heritage of the Cold War.But there are mutual fears, common security problems they both have to counter. NATO policy must be established upon present-day reality. It is self-evident that there are common fields of common interests in which mutual balance must be reached. There are among others: armament, preventing arms proliferation, halting proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical agents, antimissiles defence, counter-terrorism, drugs smuggling, open sea security, common peace operations. After two years the Russian-Georgia war started, military cooperation between Russia and NATO was re-established. Separate problem in midterm prospects presents the solving of conflict in Afghanistan.

This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The article elaborates local conditions that lead to the fundamental changes in recruitment and preparation system of new army officers. Traditionally, new career officers used to be graduates from military colleges (since 2004 University of Defence). Due to the changes aroused by the transition from conscription to all volunteer forces, Czech military is experiencing increased internal and external pressures on this traditional models of recruitment and preparation. At present, the most visible outcome of this development is severe shortage of junior officers. The combination of internal and external factors (competitive civilian job market) brings the need for expansion of the traditional recruitment models. One of the most promising ways of manning appears to be recruitment of graduates from civilian universities and their subsequent military training at Military Academy in Vyškov.

The study analyzes the key features of Russian policies in the late 2000s and their prospective developments. It is above all the rise of Russia's economic power, boosted by the favourable rising trend of energy prices (oil and gas) that has helped to resume again the position of one of the key world powers, obsessively pursuing its geopolitical interests in a new emerging multipolar world. This also determines its relations with other major global actors, e.g. the U.S., the EU, and China (outlined in this article). As far as military budget is concerned, it is increasing. Russia has overcome a long period of stagnancy. After 2007, they re-established strategical patrol flights off Russian territory; great effort is aimed at power projection, as a means to secure natural resources beyond Russian boarders. The study is closed by Russia's geopolitical prospects till the year 2020. and its Anticipated Development

The problem of forming military decisions lies in the very core of this article. Among others, there are a lot of highly unpredictable impact factors; there are many assessment criteria for individual variants of solving problems. Criteria of qualitative characters, and various interpretations of data information demand quality decisions; they are sometimes difficult to understand and even contradictory. The commanders and their staffs must be well educated, trained and experienced. To meet this precondition we must ensure quality of career training, supported by practical experiences. The staff work must be practiced regularly, with the use of various scenarios, supplemented by historical studies of past or recent fi ghts and battles.

In spite of the fact that it is a new concept, it presents one of key methods of international engagement in crisis areas the EU prefers. Its main components are crises prevention and securing stabilization. Security tasks are composite problems solving one of main state functions: to guard external and internal security together with principles of civil control. This essay among others aims to explain practicability of the EU's concept of preventive engagement as a tool of implementation of the European Security Strategy, further it describes European concept for crisis management missions in the field of civilian administration supporting security and justice. At the end there are some recommendations for the Czech Republic how to form capacities for EU missions and for the transformation of Czech security sectors.

Many people in the world lead intolerably insecure lives. In many cases insecurity is the consequence of armed conflicts in which civilians are deliberately targeted, sometimes, their insecurity has natural causes, like earthquakes, hurricane, tsunami or disease, they suffer from famine. Security is a broader term, covering not only military threats. Human rather than nation-state security should be at the heart of European policy. Instead of defeating enemies or pacifying warring parties, EU missions should focus on protecting civilians, through law enforcement with the occasional use of force. EU member states ought to support a new framework for the European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). The following seven principles are underlined: (i) the primacy of Human Rights, (ii) clear political authority, (iii) multilateralism, (iv) a bottom-approach, (v) regional focus; (vi) the use of legal instruments, (vii) the appropriate use of force. In fact, underlines Mr. Karaffa, humane security concept forms the very base of common European culture and identity.

This essay describes management system as a factor that can increase effectiveness in defence sector. The author depicts relationship among new public management reforms, public expenditure reforms and defence sector management reform. The reform of defence sector in the Czech Republic is characterized as introducing new management tools. Author explains their inner substance and importance; draws our attention to the difficulty of its first implementation. He underlines some of the factors which shape their successful implementation into Czech armed forces.

This article presents the findings of the survey being done during the evaluation and assessment of EU Battle Groups, their missions, roles, tasks, stemming from the requirements set by the EU Crisis Management Concept. The paper does not discuss in detail variants EU Battle Groups, but concentrates on their historical background, basic characteristics, structure, EU political-military ambitions, scenarios, reaction time, tasks, standards, training and certification, Battle Groups commitments, concept and implementation, achievements. The article also includes recommendations for the Czech Armed Forces that are currently involved in the formation of the EU Battle Group CZE/SVK. This article aims to record progress to date and to indicate challenges ahead. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

UAV specialists predict that within ten years, half the aircraft flying will be unmanned. They also foresee conflicts where a few soldiers will dominate stateside battlefields. The UAV Center of Excellence is going to draw the unmanned part of the Air Force, to study the best ways to use UAVs. The Air Warfare Centre at Nellis, Nevada, develops tactics for the use of aircraft and directs combat training. The UAV center would take on a whole range of issues from airspace control to various kinds of systems. Unmanned aircraft are to expect to play a key role in delivering directed-energy weapons to battlefields. Stealth will become a standard in UAV fleets just as it is in manned combat aircraft today. A number of additional improvements are expected to increase the capability of Predator squadrons. UAVs may have to specialize in strike or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Source: articles by David A. Fulghum, Aviation Week and Space Technology No 12, 2005.

Since January 1, 2005, the Army of the Czech Republic has become a professional army, based upon all-volunteer principles. It has to elaborate methods to check especially physical aptitudes for military service. This could be divided into two parts: first testing candidates for military service, second, testing career soldiers. The author familiarizes us with various sets of physical test used both in the CR and the ACR. The tests must fulfil several core predispositions: they must be standardized, reliable and valid. Validity of test must be related to the external source, so that we could compare our measured data with some other ones. The units of the ACR were divided in 1996 into three performance groups, A, B, and C, according to soldier physical capabilities.

New technologies influence not only social advance, but also the development of armed forces. Present-time warfare is resolute, dynamic. In the 21st century, both low and high intensity conflicts, counterterrorist or stabilization operations might take place in urbanized areas, where casualties and material damages are high. New weaponry and technology make demands on military and professional training, self-control, psychic preparedness. In advance we must set rules governing the firing of weapons and use of force namely by soldiers involved in peacekeeping and counter-insurgency situations. Mental stress, emotional, or physical strain or tension of soldiers are manifested by fanaticism, looting, killing non-combatants, desertions or going away from military units without permission (AWOLs), depressed soldiers inflict wound on themselves, they misuse drugs or alcohol. The author cites factors increasing soldiers' resistance: high cohesion of units, tough training, relaxation, courageousness, high awareness of objectives of operations and war aims.

The author, the former chief military chaplain, nowadays an advisor to the Czech defence minister, summarizes all relevant views on global responses to terrorism. The deadly attacks against Word Trade Center were more than acts of terror, they were acts of war. International law makes it possible to hunt the perpetrators, organizers and instigators of terrorism wherever they are. Immediately after the 11 September attacks on the United States, the Security Council expressed its determination to combat, by all means, threats to international peace and security caused by terrorist acts. The Council reaffirmed the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence in accordance with the Charter of United Nations. The States concerned have set their current military action in Afghanistan in that context. Col. Holub quotes individual views on war expressed by leaders of the U.S., NATO, United Nations, international law specialists, high Catholic clergy, ideas of Bishop Conference, and those of religious groupings. He doesn't come to any conclusion; he only wants to initiate a wide-ranging ethic discussion, as the traditional concept of the "just war" doesn't fit to this new situation. In his opinion, the core of problem lies in justifiability or unjustifiability of preventive war.

This second and closing part of this security study covers decades before the half of this century. The leading role in prevention and fight against armed conflicts will rest namely upon intelligence services. It is also expected the mass use of nonlethal weapons. The US will stay as the only leading superpower, minority expects a plurality model, i.e. the US will be only first among the equals. Some predicts the collapse of the EU. The Army of the Czech Republic ought to achieve full operational potential around the year 2012. It will take part in multinational missions. The Alliance armies should have 8 per cent of their capacities fully operable abroad. Under the preventive strategy, the regions of their prospective deployment will be in bordering countries around Europe, areas around the Eastern Mediterranean, or in the Far East. More or less, one problem remains still open: whether foreign deployments of the ACR really correspond to the interests and needs of the Czech Republic.

The paper deals with the risk assessment of professional exposure to the non-ionizing electromagnetic fields caused by radars in the selected military unit. The measured values of electric field or power density in the indication zones where the staff is exposed to the effects of the radar's non-ionizing electromagnetic field was used for the risk assessment with the acceptance of national and European standards. The principle of preliminary precaution was applied concurrently with the risk assessment according to the valid standards. The authors discuss the values of measured outcomes. They used the Checklist Analysis for qualifications of risks and for quantitative risk specifications they use the so-called brainstorming.

The philosophers describing the growth of humane society outline concepts that are not yet verified but if true, they would explain certain facts or phenomena. As those concepts are supported by various traditions, different criteria, different hypotheses are drawn from them. Among others, most influential political thinkers are Samuel P. Huntington, Francis Fukuyama, or Mr. and Mrs. Tofflers. Every level of civilisation corresponds to respective technology, knowledge of warfare. Current trends reflect the development of security situation, to which our state responds by respective army development. Although the current "Concept of Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" reacts to the newest trends of general development, the raise in military spending is anticipated only time of danger. The author warns against such idea. The forces must be constantly prepared, ready not to be struck by unexpected state of affairs; e.g. similar to that of the US in 1917.