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This article aims at building a bridge upon a gap, which separates academic sphere and intelligence community in the issue of predictive methodology. The author tries to accomplish this objective by presenting intelligence predictive methods based on open-source literature research. First, the question of uncertainty and probability in prediction is introduced (Cynefin template). Then follows basic introduction to predictive methods in civil and military intelligences, so that the reader might grasp the fundamentals of early warning systems. The academics and above all journalists should know the risks and perils in forming intelligence forecasts, estimates, foresight and warning scenarios, e.g. the so-called Black Swan scenario, the author explains potentials failures of the Delphi method. This study ought to be regarded as an introductory to predictive intelligence concurrently done by governmental agencies for purposes of national security and defence.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence, The Czech Republic. Article assesses the development of Czech Defence policy in 2017 and first half of 2018. Authors analyse key change drivers in external environment (security threats, EU strategic autonomy, transatlantic link). In second step authors evaluate measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in response to key change drivers and highlight related risks to effective defence policy formulation and implementation.

This paper is derived from "Exploring the Future Operating Environment", published in Joint Force Quarterly, April 2018. The article was presented at the Defense & Strategy 2018 conference, which took place at the University of Defense in Brno on 4-6 June 2018.

The paper outlines several recommendations for strengthening the institutional framework of the analytical support function for credible defence management. Recommendations are drawn based on the outcome of the institutional research project named Strategic Alternatives conducted by the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence (CSMSS). The multi-objective research focuses on organisational arrangement of the analytical support function within the overall ministry of defence organisational architecture of several countries (Canada, Norway, Sweden) as well as the NATO structure and management (in this case, the main focus embraces the analytical support to defence planning). Analytical support to defence decision making process in these countries enjoys a long-term tradition which goes back to the period of WWII. The way the analytical function is understood is highly relevant also for the enhancement of credible defence management in the Czech Republic and its Ministry of Defence.

The research described in this paper was conducted in the framework of institutional research project Strategic Alternatives (STRATAL) within the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies of University of Defence in Brno, the Czech Republic. The main objective of this contribution is to assess the evolution of the Czech defence policy (CDP) since the last summer 2016. The main impetuses for the CDP evolution were provided by the NATO Summit in Warsaw, new European Global Strategy including the ambition to enhance defence cooperation among the EU member states and the pattern of dynamics in our security environment. The authors analysed the key change drivers (KCDs) and measures taken in political, military, administrative, economical and societal domain in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several recommendations to enhance the responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and the Armed Forces both in short- and long-term time span.

comprehensive cooperation within reliable security partnerships. Thus, regional tailored military cooperation has gained more importance than ever before in order to tackle various threats and challenges and to strengthen crisis management capabilities. Therefore, Austria launched the Central European Defence Cooperation (CEDC) in 2010 to foster regional security cooperation and to promote modernisation of military resources. Two years later, Austria co-founded the EU Mountain Training Initiative, which closely coordinates training and education with the NATO Mountain Warfare Centre of Excellence in Slovenia. This paper aims at analysing and discussing current initiatives and possible ways of improving Central European security cooperation between NATO member states and Austria.

The global security environment brings forward different and surprising challenges for the armed forces, which require a good training and preparation. One way of sorting out the endeavour is using scenarios, the concept used extensively in the military field, the military field being the initiator of this concept. Military scenario development is the subject of this article, which is going to bring some essential characteristics and propose a working option for elaborating a scenario. The final aim is to help military planners have a good working procedure when developing a scenario in order to create a document updated with warfare evolution and operational planning process ready to respond to all risks and threats. The scenario is a way used by military structures at all levels of military art (strategical, operational and tactical) to get in contact with a probable unknown situation, to assimilate it and to sort it out. The article focuses on the scenario development process and proposes stages and activities that should be followed by a joint operational group when tasked with preparing a scenario.

Despite the attempts of labeling hybrid warfare as a new form of warfare or even as a factor that is changing the nature of war, hybrid warfare is part of a war from the Antiquity to the present day. The essence of hybrid warfare is in parallel use of regular and irregular military forcesand different means of pressure by a power unwilling to openly attack a weaker opponent. Information dimension is analyzed in the cases of hybrid warfare against Croatia (1990-91) and Ukraine (2014). In both cases the key target of hybrid warfare was social cohesion of the attacked countries. In the Croatian case, despite a strong propaganda campaign followed by the direct and indirect use of military force, the attacking side was unable to break social cohesion of the majority of Croatia's population. In the Ukrainian case, the lack of social cohesion has prevented organization of the efficient response to hybrid warfare waged by the Russian Federation. Both cases also indicate the significance of national identity in preserving a society's social cohesion.

The text deals with current and future trends in the development and application of robotic systems suitable for military engineering. The first chapter deals with contemporary requirements for application of robotics into military engineering and furthermore it assesses current state of application of engineer robotic systems into military practice. The second chapter is dedicated to future possibilities of application of robotic systems into military engineering and mentions trends in development of robotic technologies with an emphasis on engineer robotic systems. The chapter also aims at forecast of development and application of these systems into Czech army corps of engineers. The last part of the text summarizes identified discrepancies between current

The paper assesses the conceptual framework for Czech defence policy formulation in the wake of a rapid change in its security environment after Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 and the subsequent Russian support for separatists in Ukraine's eastern provinces and growing instability in the Middle East and North Africa. The article examines key measures taken in the political, military, administrative, economical and societal domains in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of Czech defence policy. Finally, the authors offer several strategic level recommendations to enhance responsiveness and preparedness of the Czech defence system and Armed Forces as one of its most significant components both in short- and long-term perspective.

Long-term cuts in military expenditures of European allied countries caused growing differences within the Alliance which can be seen in uneven sharing of military burden and in behaviour called free-riding. The aim of this contribution is to define possible approaches to the freeriding identification and to analyse military expenditure development in relation to conclusions and recommendations declared at the NATO Summit in 2014. The results of military expenditure analysis identify only a small group of countries which, from a long-term point of view, follow the recommendations of the Alliance in the form of allocating a corresponding amount as percentage of GDP and in the form of a recommended structure of military expenditures.

Although the EU global security strategy has to offer orientation on multiple levels and domains, the present paper approaches the challenges emerging from the Union's eastern neighbourhood. The argumentation includes theoretical aspects of strategy, main characteristics of the Black Sea security environment, trends of frozen conflict evolution, and the EU's approach in this entire context. The study concludes that the serious challenges the EU faces nowadays in its eastern vicinity are the result of phenomena with a consistent history and deficient management by the EU. In our opinion, this train of events¨makes the project of a new EU security strategy so challenging that it could become a new document of an over-general character, with little practical value.

The article deals with the use of military police in combat operations during dominance phase.Itdescribes the place androleofmilitarypoliceas combat support units, analyzes experience from previous and ongoing operations and specifies the possible activities of military police during this phase. In conclusion it gives recommendations for the development of capabilities in terms of the activities performed and possible changes in organizational structures. The content of the article is based on thesis prepared by the participant of the 27th General Staff Course at the University of Defence.

NATO has been permanently adapting to new outside and inside challenges. Lisbon summit in 2010 is one of the very important milestones in this transformation endeavour. Since 2010, the Alliance has embarked on meaningful structural reforms with the aim to enhance effectiveness, improve efficiency of all NATO entities and make the Alliance fit for its purpose. The main objective of this article is to introduce the scope of NATO reforms and their expected outcomes. Furthermore, this article will assess real achievements and draw at least some lessons from a reform implementation process in order to establish best practice in reforming complex organisations.

The paper briefly identified the long-time objectives of overall geospatial support. Based on that, ways ahead to achieve main aims are described. Special attention is paid to software platform for geospatial production, cooperation with civilian and international partners, legal aspects, R&D as well as mobile sets intended usage.

Since 1990, members of ACR forces have taken part in 29 foreign missions, some of them continue even today. A total of 24,171 soldiers have participated. The authors with regret state that in spite of the fact of 20 years of foreign missions, no military manual dealing with methodology of building military bases was approved. This article tries to bridge this gap. It depicts fundamental components of military base and enumerates six principal wholes of such base, further 23 basic types of elementary sections. The article was written within the limits of defence research project "Technology Support to Projection, Construction, Maintenance and Dismatling ACR Bases in Mission Abroad, with the Use of REACH-BACK Concept", which was elaborated at the Department of Engineer Technologies, in cooperation with Department of Combat Support Management, Defence University, Brno.

The invariable and constant task of logistics planners is the most effective utilization of sources. One of the methods incorporates NAMSA agency into operational and logistics planning. The NAMSA is regarded as a very effective provider of services covering the whole area of logistics. It is estimated that in the near future the agency will conduct logistics support to Alliance member nations. In 2020 the NAMSA will make use of energy and fuel mainly from sources friendly to our environment, therefore employing NAMSA agency for our army will be both economical and environmental.

The article deals with the problem of a certain militarization of a society, supposing country's military establishment is expanding its scope of activities to government or economy. From this point of view, the military and their civilian counterparts could be seen as "imperium in imperio" and such a model of military as a state within a state. There are a military-governmental complex and a military-industrial one in each state and both ought to be under civilian authorities' control, in order to prevent the democratic state from being fallen under influence of this complex. Although the notion was sketched more than fifty years ago, the military-industrial complex theory has been still living, and author gives some examples of the evolution of military-governmental and military-industrial complex.

The thing that authors regard as most important and that needs attention before anything else is the modernization of logistics in the Czech armed forces, as well as within the whole Sector of Defence, as we are facing now the topical problem-decreasing amount of financial resources from defence budget. This decrease has been enforcing logistics to find new and non-traditional approaches and ways how to solve tasks related to material and technical support. This article is aimed at the description of undertaken measures in the performance of logistics tasks in 2011 and following years. The conception and vision of the Czech Armed Forces future, including its logistics, should be involved in the White Defence Paper. The specification of the targets and the abilities in bigger detail will is involved in the White Paper on Defence.

The article presents six more or less structured analytical methods that are or could be employed in intelligence analysis. This type of analysis, one part of the intelligence cycle, is understood as "the process of evaluating data for reliability, validity, and relevance; integrating and analysing it; converting the product of this effort into a meaningful whole, which includes assessment of events and implications of the information collected". The set of presented methods includes: link analysis, opportunity analysis, analogy, linchpin analysis, analysis of competing hypothesis and alternative scenarios. The study doesn't stop with presenting those methods; it also explains which type of reasoning (inductive, deductive or abductive) is used when working with each particular method. In broad terms, the article tries to shed light on intelligence analysis and its specifics. The reader should obtain better understanding their usefulness in the daily work of intelligence analyst.

The article depicts the methods of logistical support to combat units of the German Federal Forces (Bundeswehr), deployed in Afghanistan. Professionally trained and prepared personnel are capable to meet requirements of forces in ISAF operations. The centralizations of composite logistical services can guarantee the lowering of payments and expenses in logistics. Such arrangement makes logistic activities more economical, namely by taking over of mechanisms used in civilian economy sphere. This method is called "focused logistics". It is used for logistical support of small contingents. Its characteristic feature is interconnection of logistical data and transport technologies, rapid crisis response, and the ability of logistical support during all combat and non-combat activities.

Factors such as distance, destination, deployment demands, duration, represent key elements to determine logistics requirements. The EU BG concept necessitates considerable strategic air/sea lift and combat support capabilities, since EU battle groups are to be able to be deployed almost anywhere in the world, primarily in Africa. They have to deploy both troops and materiel simultaneously to its mission areas. Strategic airlift is the fastest way of deploying troops over long distance. The main challenge for the EU is therefore availability giant airplanes. A lack of suitable European transport crafts in EBalabáuropean airlift fleet is the Achilles heel to the EU BG Concept. The problem is that all aircraft available have only limited payload capacities and flying range. Although deploying by sea is more time consuming than deploying by air, EU member states have more ships available for strategic sea transport. The strict deployment deadline set down in the EU BG Concept means that ships and crews will have to be held at very high readiness.

ACR by Ing. Vladislav Vincenec, Col. GSO Ing. Jaroslav Linhart. All military units can hardly do without the POL (which stands for Petroleum, Oil and Lubricants), rations, maintenance support and services, controlled in field conditions by Logistics. The authors depict logistic system in the French Army and compare it with that in the ACR. The Fuel Service of the French Army (SEA-Service des essences des armées) represents independent branch of the French Army. They explain its role, purpose and functions. Several charts and tablets comparing data of French tank trucks accompany the description of the SEA. The authors divide POL services in the ACR in several categories: introducing new POLs (Czech Defence Standard 051625); POL technological equipment, cars, vehicles; and finally stationary installations, built in according to long-term planes. Since 2004, the POL in the Czech Army has been supplied via the civilian Administration of the State Material Reserves, the deliveries of POL are carried out by civilian hauliers as it is more economic. The Czech POL logistics system at the tactical level is organized along French SEA lines.

The term "military materiel" covers equipment and supplies, i.e. articles which soldiers need in order to carry out tasks (clothing, radios, tools, weapons, vehicles). Guarding, attendance, maintenance and preservation, transport, storage, cost a lot of money that could be used in another way, so the Czech Army must sell them out. The author quotes legal rules and military manual dealing with this matter. He differentiates between solely military items (weapon systems) and those that may be used for civilian purposes. Unfortunately, military manuals do not precisely specify those categories. At the end he demands developing legal norms giving a definition of military materiel, including the list of such materiel, in a form e.g. an amendment, which could be updated every year.

The end of conscription (i. e. national service) is accompanied by a dozen of economy implications that ought to be respected. Among others, there is a problem of non-military activities being done by soldiers during their compulsory military service. Supposedly, many of those activities can be performed by private entrepreneurship. One of possible solutions is the socalled "outsourcing". Our Army might buy services and supplies outside the forces, in civilian sector. Similar practices should reduce Army's expenses for labour, outlays for materials, maintenance, etc. Outsourcing directs public expenditures to places where labour and material costs are lower than in the ACR. But, we must not forget, there is one precondition; the public sector must be factually economical, with low expenses in competitive surrounding.

At present, the current reform of our armed forces is oriented towards qualitative changes. The Brigade of Logistics Support is going to be the unit designated for transportation, maintenance and repair, technological control of arms and vehicles, it must be capable of fluent supplying advances positions, namely by propellants, ammunitions, and further dozens of tasks in frame of joint task groups (National Support Element) or as a HNS (Host National Support). All units will be connected by multifunctional logistics informational system. Logistics system must fulfill its tasks even in time of peace, and thus be prepared for time of crises. The operational engagement in the early 21st century will require light expeditional forces capable of easy and rapid deployment. The logistics support ought to be more mobile, more integrated, more compatible and more precise, with the quick accession to spare parts and maintenance support.

The authors depict the development of outsourcing methods in US armed forces, its origins, and sources. Collected data are accompanied by experiences from British and German armies. The American Office of Management and Budget (OMB) issued in 1966 Circular No A-76 (lately several times revisited) to define procedures how to set rules which commercial activities are to be done within the frame of armed forces or in private sector. Backed by a number of literatures, magazines and newspapers (Air Force Journal of Logistics, Air Force Magazine, Armed Forces Journal, Defense Nationale, Washington Technology, Wehrtechnik, etc.) authors analyse several outsourcing processes. They present both positive and negative results, including open or hidden problems of A-76 policy (e.g. business process outsourcing). For the Army of the CR they recommend to overcome above mentioned problems by creating the corrective authority, similar to the British PPPU (PublicPrivate Partnership Unit).