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The identification of security threats and subsequent risks is the base on which we form security and military strategies. It is also the core of all security scenarios. That's why we must welcome all books dealing with futurology predictions, like The Cognition of Future as a Challenge by Martin Potůček at al, Karolinum, Charles University. He summarizes knowledge and experiences done by CESES, the only scholarly lab dealing systematically with drafting up visions and strategies the Czech state might be confronted with. The CESES is a Czech acronym, which stands for the Centre for Social and Economic Strategies, at the Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague.

Taking into account the prepared 2011 Security Strategy and the White Paper on Defence in our country, due attention ought to be paid to political ambitions and economy influence of emerging actors, both world and regional. In ten or twenty years to come we shall face basic transformation of international system. Today, there are four main global power centres: North America (United States, Canada), the European Union, China and Japan. The author of this study concentrates predominantly on their economy strength that is also a base of all sources spent on armed forces. Among emerging powers belongs above all India, regional power in South Asia, Brazil in Latin America, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico. They together cover 52 per cent of word's economy production. Different interests give rise to various disputes, but they are able to act cohesively against e.g. decisions by G-20. Among other's the article is accompanied by the table comparing military powers of the USA and Russia.

To fulfil Czech obligation as an EU Battle Group Framework Nation according to the regulating document EU BG Training and Certification, the Czech Army is to certify that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU meet the standards and criteria stated in Standards and Criteria for EU BG. It is recommended that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification process should be analogous with NATO Response Force (NRF) certification procedure and practical methods. Further it is suggested that the CZE/SVK Battle Group EU certification procedure is divided into several evaluation procedures: preparation planning evaluation, war-fighting evaluation, and technical evaluation. Each procedure will be developed by specialized teams with representatives in the sub-working group to ensure that the different procedures harmonize. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of EU Military Structure or the Czech Ministry of Defence. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources. The written sources are listed in the matrix above.

Czech dailies and weeklies publicised their analyses of the diplomatic dispatches released by WikiLeaks. Some were concerned in world's politics, but higher attention was paid to 1,271 dispatches from Prague. According to the dispatches, the U.S. Navy wanted to purchase 23 Russian anti-ship missiles to obtain the weapons from Belarus through Ukraine, with a Czech arms dealer. However, the Czech government decided to derail the plan by not granting the Czech middleman the needed permission to export weapons from a dictatorship like Belarus. Various cables also detailed a dispute in the area of arms technology. Some observations from the dispatches dealing with characteristics of Czech prominent politicians are amusing. Overall, the United States evaluated the CzechRepublic positively, as an economically mature country and as an ally.

This paper analyses some of the accesses to developing modular structures of task forces, built not only on a base of combined arms, but also even the base of special units, formations, Czech Chemical Corps. The analysis is derived from documents, doctrines, at both political-strategic level and military-strategical level within state defence command. Moreover, the article offers information related to operational-tactical level of command and control. At the end, the author evaluates some possible impacts of modular structures on practical activities of forces. It is necessary to define those impacts in a framework of particular projects, dealing with the formation of modular structures.

Keynesian economics argues that private sector decisions sometimes lead to inefficient macroeconomic outcomes and therefore advocates active policy responses by the public sector, including monetary policy actions and fiscal policy actions by the government to stabilize output over the business cycle. This paper defines the core of Keynesian economics in the mirror of defence expenditures and their influence on country's economy growth. The main attention is paid to the analysis of military-industrial complex and its pressure on armed forces, as one of most important factors introducing a danger of the so-called militarization of both state economy of advanced industrial countries and their social life.

The article continues explanation basic operational terms, familiarizes readers with true theoretical fundamentals of the key element of operational design - the decisive point. Basic doctrinal interpretations are described and explained. Its introduction and utilization is visible during the operational planning process and elaboration of operational design. The concept of decisive point has a close connection to the other concepts, namely lines of operations, the centre of gravity and the end state. The concept is further evolved via example of peace support military operation planning process. Key words: decisive points, decisive conditions, lines of operations, centre of gravity, effect, kinetic, nonkinetic operations, doctrine.

The NATO Washington Summit in 1999 discussed Defence Capability Initiatives to increase Alliance defence potential together with capacities for accelerated deployability and mobility of NATO forces. This fact was underlined during Prague Summit 2002. One of Prague Capabilities Commitments is the requirement of deployability and sustainability in operations. Among others, this requirement is met by Memorandum of Understanding and bilateral agreements. The Czech Republic is involved in activities of international organizations, enumerated in this article. We support a principle of specialization, the concentration to limited, part-time scale of transport capacities operating for Czech peacekeeping missions. Active participation in the Movement Coordination Centre Europe could be the leading pattern for synergic cooperation in the field of strategic transport.

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

There is an urgent need to recognize changed priorities and evolve new approaches to non-proliferation and disarmament objectives for a sharper focus on the real and present dangers to international peace and stability. The focus must now shift to more effective monitoring and verification of compliance at various levels. The proposed ROOT system (Responsible Ownership of Technology) might be one of such means to meet above mentioned challenges that could eliminate present-day dangers and contribute to international peace and stability. It is the technology for security in the 21st century.

The book consists of papers by eleven authors, members and fellow members of the Centre for Social and Economy Strategy, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University Prague. At present, we must prepare to face socially unwelcome phenomena. We must arrange preventive projects, so that we could solve prospective crises. The authors therefore pay their attention to methodology of crisis scenarios, or how they are to be prepared. Predicted nine worst-case scenarios anticipate prolonged crises, failure in education policy, rise of extremism, climate changes, energy collapse, lack of international balance, and separation of the Czech Republic from Europe.

The primary purpose for NATO enlargement, covering first three countries of the so-called Visegrad Four and later Slovakia, was the necessity to fulfil "security vacuum" in Central and subsequently in Eastern Europe which came into existence after the fall of Soviet empire. Membership of those countries helped to fix criteria for admission of other states to the Alliance. Today, the NATO alliance stands in front of new important challenge: to work out a New Strategic Concept agreement in late 2010, based upon the idea saying that the security of Euro-Atlantic region is tied with and depends on the safety of the whole world. This safety concept will able to be realized only by means of global strategical governance. More then predicting expected security and defence ideas, the author reopens a broader discussion about the real meaning of NATO membership. He also repeats and enumerates risks and threats we are facing today.

The overall purpose of this paper is to describe the way the Alliance and the also the Czech Army is going to apply the leverage of powers while conducting operations in the future. The article shows in details that the relative combat power analysis requires an assessment of factors either directly or indirectly affecting the potential outcome of the operation. In order to improve military knowledge and operational thinking within the Czech Army it is recommended to improve the quality of officers' military training and personnel preparation in accordance with Czech MoD White Paper on Defence. The views expressed in this assessment are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of Alliance or the Czech Ministry of Defence.

Although private military companies like the former Blackwater were regarded as a relatively new phenomenon in international security, their history is not new. The participation of private individuals, and /or groups of private individuals, soldiers of fortune, in "foreign" armed conflicts is at least as old as the history of wars by itself. It is impossible to open a debate about the scope and possible impact of the current use of private military and security companies without knowing and evaluating their long-term historical developments. The goal of this study is therefore to map the history of the use of private military forces, their involvement in various conflicts, services they offer, among others, from the point of international law.

The purpose of this analysis is to trace contemporary position of recent war veterans, members of missions abroad after 1989 after they retired. Above it concentrates on their problem on home labour market, eventually on psychic disorders, negative after-effects or syndromes, possible assistance and support on the part of state, eventually of Czech Ministry of Defence. The article is divided into two parts. The first one analyses accessible statistical data concerning participants in foreign missions and at the same time collected data serve for drafting hypothesis tied with a research segment of this paper. The second part of this study evaluates results reached, based upon anonymous questionnaires completed by retired new war veterans in the period from December 4, 2009, till January 25, 2010

The outcomes of battles and fighting are significantly influenced by weather conditions. Together with other important circumstances they decide a chosen combat strategy, operational art, warfare tactics, and ways of personnel and vehicles deployment; consequently the volume of losses or casualties. The authors recount the establishing of weather service within individual arms, creating fi rst weather charts, they give details on situation in pre-war republic, during WWII, in the 50s, even after the Velvet Revolution in 1989. They mention the names of eminent personalities of Czech Hydrometeorological Service to be honoured and remembered. We must also remind that our Hydrometeorological Service works not only in favour of the ACR, but also for other NATO countries.

The article explains defence planning of armed forces deployment that ought to by the base for all long haul visions and concept texts for army development and its operational employment. Operational scenarios and concepts form together key elements of defence planning process, both factors enable to military organizations not only to identify future security challenges but also to react to challenges in being. It is not contrary to the so-called capability planning process as this is a manly armed force potential backing our ability to face threads and risks in the future. The example of the United States involved in three asymmetric conflicts is a warning example showing the necessity of the complex and coordinated strategical approaches.

The fundamentals of this concept, as they were explained in previous Military Review No 1, 2011, have stayed unchanged, up to the present. There still exist operational bases, directions, courses, lines, upon which military convoys transfer by the plan or in disorderly manner. Such picture corresponds to linear wars of first, second and third generations. The wars of fourth generation are characterized by the speed and initiative. The frontiers between war and politics are blurred, so are between civilians and combatants. They are mostly wars with and among non-state actors, counter-insurgency operations (COIN) Based on doctrinal analysis; author describes concepts philosophy in functional and logical aspects. This might help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept might be successfully applied in connection with stability and COIN operations.

Army personnel are ranked according to level, from the lowest (privates, sergeants, WOs) to the highest (officers, generals). A total of 80 per cent of professional soldiers, in lowest ranks, are hired at labour market. They form the core of our military personnel, so that they have to be properly taken care of. But in ours, we have still the mentality of mass armies of cold-war period. There have been professional armed forces in the Czech Republic for more than five years, nevertheless the question how to build up the other rank corps is still opened. This article deals with this problem and the method how to cope with the need to form more professionalized NCOs. Broadly speaking, it is the question of the quality overpassing the quantity. Author insists that the British model of NCO's career path should be easily applied into the Czech Armed Forces to get rid of the obsolete recruiting related more to a model of conscription forces.

He was born in 1918, it means that this year he was 93 years old. He is a participant of the only armed fi ght against German invaders in 1993. The Germans did not release the data about the fallen, but it is estimated that they lost 12-18 deaths and several wounded. Corporal Šolc was discharged. Immediately he joined resistance movement. He was arrested. After the war he worked at the Ostrava Miners Directorate. Although he retires in 1976, he is still dynamic.

International situation lies still in the middle of our attention. Public is still interested in current security situation. The publications dealing with security threats are sold out, that's why the Karolinum Publishing House issued the second edition of this reviewed book, Chapters on Security. Nineteen security analysts amended and brought up to date their original papers; the book was enlarged by fifty pages. The monograph covers both inner politics and international organizations. Inseparable are prediction of world's development till the year 2020. The book is also involved with the so-called humane security and the system of complex security control in the Czech Republic.

The existence of the Czech Army is at state. We need to get over present cut in military budget, ill-advised savings, without searching for new appropriate financial and material sources. To save something important means always to sacrifice or to give up something. Some security and military experts wish to dissociate themselves with approved methods. They think that the White Paper doesn't express opinions on many important things. It assumed that after five years there will be need to revise this White Book. So, proposes the author, wouldn't be better for us to regard the White Book only as an analytical document containing certain proposals for the following Defence Strategy of the CR, as originally intended?

The gravity of this article is laid down on the present-day state of affairs. China bought Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek obligations, i.e. China lent a hand to those countries (so did the European Union). In this way, China increased its influence in Europe. Stabilized Europe is necessary for Chinese export, it was not mere charity. Defence expenditures of People's China has reached 100 billions USED a year. Supposing the Chinese are intended to reach world's domination, they should stick to this kind of policy and they should not try to acquire the dominance by armed force. China behaves like an asymmetric power, knowing well that it can't surpass the U.S. by arms. China does not want to repent Russian mistake to be "over-armed" by America in futile arms race. Still, there is plenty of free space to compete with the U.S., e.g. cosmic or space competition, computer and Internet technologies.

Main focus of this article is laid on the digitalization of battlefield, command and control, Network-Enabled Capability (NEC) implementation, organization structures transformation brought about by the 21st Century Soldier concept and its economic implications. Based on this topic, the authors present mobile sensor system as a result of research being done in the Military Management and Tactics Department, University of Defence Brno.

At first, in 1918, the new Czech Republic took over Military Territorial Authorities from the former Austro-Hungarian empire. In 1920 the net of 48 regional Are We Able to Govern at Strategical Level? by PhDr. Antonín Rašek. This is the question asked by the book "Strategical Governance and the Czech Republic", published by the Centre of Social and Economic Strategies, Social Science Faculty, Charles University Prague, in which also the Centre for Security Policy participates. The opening sentence says that humankind is not able to control itself. The team of authors guide us through individual items dealing with world's political and economy situations, plans for economy growth, security and defence concepts, forming supranational security structures and finally towards depressing destiny of adopted strategy concepts and plans. If Czech leadership has any deficiency, then it is a lack of strategical dimension, concludes the reviewer.

The proposals of systems approach are sometimes met with a negative acceptance. While solving difficult problems, army members exploit mere practical approaches and they proved to be successful. For that reason the author offers a short glimpse into systems thinking, as necessary starting point for pinpointing the cause of current difficulties. The system is any collection of component elements that work together to perform a task. In economic science, system is used in a variety of contexts. Military cost-effective system can be an essential programme that manage Planning Programming and Budgeting System, flexibly reacting to emerging military challenges resulting from new budget rules (based upon NATO doctrines). One of possible causes of disproportionate and undesirable reactions are wrongly set systems rules, e.g. in market systems manifested by the so-called risks factors. In the forces, the same position ought to be held by unified systems rules, taking into account individual economic subsystems (billing systems, spending elements, etc.), harmonizing them in terms of general independent economic principles.

Arms-importing countries often ask their suppliers to "offset" the cost by reinvesting some of the money in their country. The so-called "arms trade offsets" are thought to enhance domestic economic development. Do offsets mitigate or magnify the military burden? This article examines the theory and policy applications of arms trade offsets and looks at some cases (JAS 39 C/D GRIPEN). It will be a useful and enlightening read for those interested in international development economics, military studies and our Czech policy-makers.

Based on their previous experience, the authors ponder professional soldiers? rational behaviour and decision-making process in the Army. The authors say that such behaviour is possible even on the lowest command levels, supposing several fundamental conditions are fulfilled. Every commander ought to evaluate the situation independently, unbiased, he ought to judge the impact of his decision on all parties involved and to settle actual eventualities. This process is set into military surrounding. This is a place of specific character that reflects the structure of special military relations. The higher level of command, the higher level of rationality of decisions. But, the superiors should bear in mind that even their subordinates might share decision-making process.

The defence of country is demanded, but as far as monetary resources are concerned (the effectiveness of which is mostly not transparent), the civilian public takes them as a mistake, as superfluous expenditures. The military economy is an interdisciplinary branch of knowledge, it is a broad subject that can?t be reduced for mere controlling expenses. Still, it is very difficult to assess its recoverability, in comparison with its importance for state defence.