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The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

The disintegration of the republic and the following army dissolution can't be prevented. As both nations were of higher cultural level, the process proceeded cultivable. The overall situation in the forces was better than in civil spheres, because military was formed as a federal army, and servicemen acted and thought in a federal way. They did not support state disintegration, but on the other side they did not prevent it. The authors composed the paper with strategical approach to problems, only partly paid attention to political, legislative, organizational, and personal matters. Intentionally they missed mechanic matters, e.g. the division state property, a total of 418 milliard Czechoslovak crowns.

The article deals with some aspects of long-term planning in the sector of theMinistry of Defence. Its aim is to stimulate discussion about the methods and processes of long-term planning, to point out some shortcomings in the development of strategic documents in the past. The text also describes the basis for long-term planning process and particularly the role of long-term foresight. The author analyses lessons learned from the developing and implementation of Long-Term Vision of the Ministry of Defence document (2008) and tries to aply them in drafting a new document, The Long-Term Vision for Defence in 2030, is now being prepared under the leadership of the Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic. He also highlights some of the theoretical principles for developing documents in the process of strategic management.

In 2007 and 2010, this Czech Military Review Vojenské rozhledy published several articles, discussing analytical thinking and analytical methodologies in the field of military intelligence. The authors among others mentioned the methodology ACH, Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. The methodology is not suitable only for intelligence, but it can be used further for solving a variety of military decision-making problems. The article in its first part describes ACH philosophy, including some academic considerations both by supporters and critics to this methodology. The second part demonstrates an example of its implementation and usage during support other problems tied with decision-making in defence planning process. The method is simple to explain, but difficult to introduce to real practice. The article explains both the theory and modifications of ACH and underlines some pitfalls connected with putting methodology into practice.

The development of C2 theory and practice within force requires an interdisciplinary approach. Commanding army needs not only the familiarity with armed forces and warfare principles, but also the knowledge and understanding of the development of security and operational environments. It is the development of security and operational environments that directly affects the theoretical and doctrinal thinking, the approaches to armed forces employment to deal with contemporary and future crisis situations. This paper is an attempt to project some opinions on C2 issues from the sixties last century to the present. As there are two periods with dozens of common characteristics, we can find a number of similarities. This article aims to point them out.

The main characteristics of the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic-leadership, organization, doctrines, personnel and its preparation, weapons systems, material, infrastructure-has been continuously adopted since their creation in 1993. This article analyses three main strands of this process: the first one constitutes the changes in the global security environment and their impact on the role and tasks of armed forces. The second strand reflects the marginalisation of security and defence policy agenda, influencing the instability of armed forces. The last strand focuses on the growing role of international organisations during the provision of security and defence of the Czech Republic. In summary, the author identifies main challenges ahead for Czech political and military leadership.

Today, the word Concept is one of most used terms in the framework of long and medium term of defence management. Concept development as a process is mentioned in significant number of departmental regulations and descriptions of activities of organizational bodies of the Ministry of Defence and General Staff. Concept development and Experimentation is a kind of incantation used when we speak about the development of long and medium term strategic documents. This article comprises the analysis of the legal regulations concerning the development of strategic documents. It analyses the implications of the governmental Methodology of mid-term concepts and Methodology of preparation of public strategies for departmental strategic documents.

Methodically, presented study comes out of a book by Martin Potůček at al. Studying the Future as a Challenge. Its author offers a comprehensive characteristic of several fundamental challenges to social forecasting. It begins by defining forecasting as the formulation of conditional accounts of possible futures. The main forecasting theme to be solved are as follows: ageing Czech population as a security problem, corruption, criminality, organized crime as a tool of political and economy instability, the marginalization of Czech Armed Forces in context of globalization and overall European defence, possible threat of the collapse of Czech defence system.

On January 11, 2013, the French army opened the military operation with the aim to halt the progress of Islamist armed groups, controlling north of Mali. The factual impulses for intervention were endangered pipelines in Algeria, Madgaz, MEG, Trans Mediterranean, and Greenstream. Generally, the intervention was justified by several UN Security Council Resolutions. Even the military units of the Army of the Czech Republic have taken part in the Operation, backed by Resolution 2071, and at the request of Mali government. The author familiarizes readers with roots of instability in this region and actual security state of affairs. Finally he presents several scenarios of subsequent possible developments.

Článek je shrnutím výsledků řešení projektu obranného výzkumu STRUKTURA: Tvorba modulárních struktur úkolových uskupení pro celé spektrum operací a jejich ověřování s využitím tvorby koncepcí a experimentování - CD&E. Je zaměřen na objasnění problematiky definování modulů jako základního prvku modularity a možné přístupy k výběru hodnocení a formování modulárních úkolových uskupení. Cílem článku je pojednat o možnostech tvorby úkolových uskupení a generování sil v podmínkách definovaných a popsaných scénářů. Hlavní části článku vymezují determinanty organizace modulárních struktur a jejich popis.

The article deals with using of simulation technology for training commanders and staffs in new types of operations. It summaries the overall development in the area, occurred since the establishment of the Center of Simulation and Training Technologies. There are presented turning points in training on simulators, i. e. requirements for combat in urban area, special operations of small units, of ground forces interaction with supporting units, the use of command and control systems and the cooperation between the military and rescue workers. It also points to the new requirements in the fields of training and shows possible ways of their solution. The second part deals with problems of NEC and its implementation into simulation systems. The article presents the results of SIMNEC defence research and its contribution to the future expansion of the capabilities of tactical simulator.

NATO Defence Planning Process (NDPP) is a subject of quite frequent reviews and amendments in order to meet the needs of NATO as an organization and of each Ally. The current initiative, based on a tasking from the Chicago summit in May 2012, is referred to as "Enhancing the NDPP". It particularly aims at making the NDPP more relevant to national defence planning and more visible at political level. More emphasis is also placed on timely consultations among Allies whenever they intend to make significant changes in their defence inventories and capabilities. Recently approved NATO Defence Planning Capability Targets (June 2013) previously known as Force Goals, are for the first time affected by application of the so-called "50% planning assumption" which aims to redress the burden-sharing imbalance between the US and other Allies.

During the first half of 2010, many Internet sites in the Czech Republic and abroad published a number of alarming articles about the platform, called the European Gendarmerie Force (EUROGENDFOR, EGF). Their authors refer to this unit as the basis for a new "Holy Alliance", when the gendarmerie from one member state will be going to suppress unrests in another member state - if the local task forces refuse to do so. This paper is trying to correct such speculations and summarizes available information about the respective unit.

There exists a variety of deployment strategies, visions and concepts for armed forces, how they will operate in the future horizon. The key part of operational concepts consists of several key characteristics, which include e.g. the account of military problem, its military solution describing in broad terms how military forces will operate across the wide range of military operations in pursuit of strategic objectives and thereby consequent requirements for military capabilities development. The article does not provide a comprehensive answer to all the problems associated with the concept development. Rather, its purpose is to point out some aforementioned aspects crucial not only for operational concepts developers, responsible individuals and organizations, but it may be beneficial even for commanders in terms of their operational thinking and drafting an appropriate operational approach to solving day-to-day acitivities.

In this article the author thinks over one of many variants the mortar units could be deployed into battalion combat task forces to support developing operations. It is a process of gradual compatibility with the units of North Atlantic Alliance and modernizing mortar weapons system with regard to prospective personnel reductions. It is important for joint commanders to be familiar with this kind of combat support, so that they could use it effectively in land operations.

The article is an analysis of the further development of mechanized battalions of Czech forces (ACR). The defence department will have to take a major decision how to replace old tracked infantry combat vehicles (ICVs) BVP-2. Several years ago, it was decided to acquire those vehicles for one brigade, so the best option could be to keep this project on. The acquisition and simultaneous operations of two similar vehicles, wheeled and tracked ones, are not effective for forces of ACR size. The extra costs of operation would not produce an adequate increase in capabilities of mechanized units. The author presents dozens of arguments to support this conclusion and at the end he makes recommendations for the future acquisition strategy in Czech defence department.

The purpose of this paper is to define cyberterrorism phenomenon with the use of available documents, reports, and expert texts, and to evaluate its role and occurrence in contemporary world's events. The cyberterrorism is very often discussed nowadays, but there is a total lack of any consensus as far as a precision definition is concerned. The critique of current state is summarized at the end of the final chapter, describing leading causes of present situation, i.e. a situation when the cyberterrorism is discussed, politicised, all repeatedly underline its dangerousness, but in practice no cyber attract has occurred.

The White Paper on Defence was approved by the Government of the Czech Republic on 18 May 2011. The article describes a circumstances of the document development and its substance and role in the family of the defence strategic documents. In addition, the article highlights some important measures of the White Paper that has been implemented in practice. The author who was a member of the committee, responsible for development, and an editor of the White Paper, responds to some voices, claiming that the document has not come up to expectations and it is not usable for the future of the Czech Armed Forces. The author presents his lessons learned from the development and implementation of the document and describes some recommendations for the future.

The article deals with particularly topical problem, the riots with ethnic background. The present situation is compared with history illustrations and with similar recent events abroad. Author's reflections and scenarios outline a variant of state failure and its institutions, with the exception of army. He identifies respective incoming risks, among others tied with the so-called Roma question. Actually, his hypothetical solutions are not backed by the current laws of the Czech Republic. The author comes to the conclusion that army deployment might be used only as an instrument of last resort, "ultima ratio".

The re-election of Barrack Obama implies that the President preferring political solutions to military ones will have remained for the next four years in the White House. As far U. S. strategy culture is concerned, without doubts American armed forces are going to be prepared to be modern, strong, agile and capable to meet the U.S. National Security strategy goals whatever and wherever they might be. Simultaneously, Obama´s programme for his second term presupposes to close down several military bases all around the world, together with reductions in the size of forces, manpower. Only the most important will be preserved. The further development will be therefore predestined by necessary quantitative reductions, but at the same time by qualitative updating American armed forces, and by the stress on power projection capabilities to take an active approach to counter any threats worldwide.

Our new stance to comprehensive control of security in the international context is based upon the so-called "wider security concept". Despite various definitions,there is the consensus that a national state is not the only security subject, the classical paradigm was extended to other areas, outside military one: political, economy, financial, banking, environmental, and social. They are endorsed by security problems related to technology, energy, raw material sources, ethnical disputes, religion, together with humane rights and cultural aspects. To win the war is easy, to establish peace is difficult. Last but not least, we now have to fight and win the war of public opinion.

The article is a polemic reflection over the potential concept and vision of defence and EU combined armed forces, from the military point of view. It recalls previous efforts and present activities to implement common security and defence policy in practice. It is a short analysis of conditions under which the EU is situated, and in general contours it characterizes possible advantages of common European armed forces. It expresses author's opinion that by forming "European Pillar" in NATO, the transatlantic linkage between the EU and the USA will not be weakening, but on the contrary, it will be strengthen. The author uses the terms "European army" and "common armed forces of EU" that he takes as synonyms and therefore he asks the reader to take this fact in account.

The author of this article considers the prospective changes in the development, character, missions and tasks of the Army of the Czech Republic, Those changes are deduced from the changing security environment and long-term development trends. To meet new demands, we must continue in building interoperability and compatibility. The battlefield operations will be planned and controlled by the systems of "Network Centric Warfare" and "Reach Back Operations". It will not be necessary for a commander to be in physical contact with operational theatre. Electronical high speed intelligence, surveillance, target acquisition, reconnaissance will enable the high pace of military operations (together with common analyses, integration of collected data, evaluation of enemy's intents and activities). This will enable to build a credible defence, in the frame of collective security system, hand in hand with other NATO allies.

The article shows that Czech armed forces are supposed to develop planning mechanism according to the Alliance Comprehensive Operations Planning Directive (COPD) to be fully interoperable in operation planning process (OPP), namely in field operations planning in the framework of the multinational missions abroad. However, some problems persist at the operational level of crisis management, such as institutional arrangements for planning and commanding crisis operations, procedures pertaining to force generation, synchronization and activities coordination. The Czech Army Operational Planning Doctrine is still being developed. The purpose of this article is to inform on current state of affairs in operational planning with subsequent consequences to the results and reform recommendations by the White Paper on Defence.

Studies of the importance of culture have gained greater attention in the post-Cold War era. In present world, there are many fenomena that can't be explained in terms of neorealism. There is the consensus in national security policy studies that culture may significantly affect grand strategy and state behaviour. It limits behavioural choices, from which we could derive predictions about our strategic choice. This study is based among others upon Johnston's strategic culture concept related to three generations. The study is divided into five parts: at first the author introduces general concept of strategic culture, the second, third and fourth parts correspond to individual generations. In closing part the author explains his own understanding to this concept.

On May 15, 2012, the Czech Defence Minister decided to establish the Centre for Security and Military Strategic Studies. The institution of this type has been long awaited, with great expectations. The author, director of this institute, presents the survey of similar scholarly institutions founded and finally cancelled in this country after 1989. This article introduces the original intent of its founders, namely Centre's future role in the development of strategic studies as a starting point for strategic management, its place in the system of Czech military education and training. The results reached by this institute ought to be truly utilized by MoD leaders and government officials.

The essay deals with the concept of total force policy concept and its implementation. Some facts related to the history, implementation and development of this construct are presented in context of the Czech White Paper on Defence released in 2011. In order to improve capabilities of the national armed forces system, and as well as to diminish risks related to lack of human and financial sources in face of impeding population ageing, the author suggests a return to total force concept in the Czech Republic. He admits that the experiences with this policy before 1990 will be inoperative, as there is no chance of reintroducing of compulsory military service or the re-establishing of such paramilitary institutions such as e.g. the SVAZARM used to be.