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Defense planning and research has to engage with questions about future developments quite often. Solutions to these questions tend to be hazy due to (I) the missing data, or due to (II) the necessity to build long-term prognoses, which are - by their very nature - only remotely related to any current or historical empirical cases. Under these conditions counterfactuals and their specific - future- oriented - form: scenarios, offer a valuable tool. Nevertheless, counterfactuals and scenarios, due to their limited empirical embeddedness, demand explicit and rigorous application of a theory. The article highlights often overlooked resemblance of scenarios and counterfactuals and derives from this fact some methodological implications for scenario building enterprise. Beyond that, it aims at demonstrating possible contributions as well as obstacles inherent for the use of scenarios and counterfactuals in our defense policy debates.

Methodically, presented study comes out of a book by Martin Potůček at al. Studying the Future as a Challenge. Its author offers a comprehensive characteristic of several fundamental challenges to social forecasting. It begins by defining forecasting as the formulation of conditional accounts of possible futures. The main forecasting theme to be solved are as follows: ageing Czech population as a security problem, corruption, criminality, organized crime as a tool of political and economy instability, the marginalization of Czech Armed Forces in context of globalization and overall European defence, possible threat of the collapse of Czech defence system.

This text sets its aim in analyzing the current state of active reserve in the Czech republic. The function, current state along with future plans as envisioned in the Concept of Active reserve from the year 2012 and relevant public anouncements of certain military and ministry officials will be described first. The ammendment to the conscription act will be briefly introduced along with its effects on the function of Active reserve, its perspectives and on the requirements on the recruits. Then the possible issues that may arise during the implementation of reforms will be analyzed. These lay mainly in the personal level and training. Several possible solutions for these issues will be put forward.

Currently the Army of the Czech Republic does not have any rules in determining the amount of funds for building maintenance. The maintenance is carried out irregularly and often does not solve keeping the functionality of the basic elements of the building (roof, statics, windows, sewerage, electrical wiring). Every building which is in use has to be kept in good technical condition. Only in such properties, the user can perform tasks for the security of defence of the Czech Republic properly. In terms of these facts a work target was set to create a simple method of a long term maintenance financial plan of premises owned by the Army of the Czech Republic. The crucial part of leading to the fulfilment of the objective was to create an experimental maintenance financial plan of selected premises.

This text presents development of the Ukrainian conflict in the context of contemporary discussion about the extent of Russian intervention in crisis regions. The author explores thesis about application of hybrid war by Russian side, use of new military and strategic methods. He also presents and evaluates the arguments which oppose the idea of considerable changes in character of military conflicts, which were demonstrated during the occupation of Crimea and during the combat clashes in Eastern Ukraine having in mind the state and possibilities of the involved actors.

The situation in Chad, republic in north central Africa, could be characterized by permanent political instability. Its population consists of numerous ethnic groups. Arab peoples are important in the north and east, and black African peoples dominate in the south, estimated population of Chad is nearly 10 million, with 250,000 refugees, 190,000 internally displaced persons, 40,000 persons live in camps. The area of planned operation is three times larger then the area of the Czech Republic. On 25 September 2007, the Security Council, by its resolution 1778, approved the establishment in Chad and the Central African Republic, in concert with the European Union, of a multidimensional presence intended to help create the security conditions conducive to a voluntary, secure and sustainable return of refugees and displaced persons. The multidimensional presence shall include a United Nations Mission in the Central African Republic and Chad (MINURCAT). It is going to be the largest military operation of the EU outside European territory.

The article deals with the provisional bridging systems that are being used in the Czech Republic area. The main and mostly deployed bridge sets owned by one of the Czech agencies are covered. Every bridging systems is described, along with the way of construction, deployment and a list of main advantages and disadvantages. An evaluation of contemporary usability of the bridging sets is conducted at the end of the article.

Suicide bombing represents a low-cost, low-tech weapon that is readily available, requires little training, leaves little forensic trace, and strikes fear into the general population. Almost exclusively, suicide bombers emanate from distinct ethnicities and religions; furthermore, recent history indicates that they come from the Arab/Muslim or East Asian cultures. As important as the suicide bombers are the activists and sympathizers who offer them support and comfort. These activists may recoil from committing acts of violence themselves but may sympathize with those who do, and offer moral and material support. This article explores the psychosocial aspects and methods of suicide bombers in general, but with particular focus on those operating in Palestine, Moscow (Chechen guerrillas, 2002), Singar (Iraq 2007).

The fundamental regulation of governmental invests is Czech Act on Public Contracts. Its main objective is a financial saving in the procurement of goods and services by the state. In some specific cases, this objective may come into a conflict with other interests protected by a law. Several verdicts recently delivered by courts in criminal cases relating to a procurement of medical supplies bring a new and interesting insight into this issue. Some conflicts with social interest were identified on basis of these verdicts. These interests are the maintaining of the Czech Republic Armed Forces combat capability and its function in peace-time, fulfilment of international obligations of the Czech Republic and the requirement for the strict adherence to military orders. Some cases, in which different interests outweigh the interest protected by the Act on Public Contracts, were found.

The article brings outcomes from the critical analysis of interaction between planning by objectives and capability planning. The analysis is based on the assumption that the strategic decision-making process should be assisted by a systemic tool, enabling a financial assessment of capabilities, identified as a prerequisite for accomplishing politico-military ambitions. Taking into account the current planning system, as implemented within the Ministry of Defence, the planning by objectives might become this tool. However, for providing an efficient planning by objectives, it is necessary to derive relevant findings from the capability planning, which basically includes data on capability assessment, identified capability shortfalls and their prioritisation. Therefore, findings from capability planning process are a keystone for conceiving objectives for the area of capability development. Both capability planning and planning by objectives are to be seen as communicating conveyances, where a level of mutual interactions significantly influences effectiveness of defence performance management.
The analysis is aimed at identification and description of discrepancies hampering an efficient interconnection between planning by objectives and capability planning and, as a conclusion, the analysis proposes a definition of the core problem which causes respective discrepancies.

The topic of this essay is an insight into the interrelations of the economic analysis of armed conflict. The author tries to explain its substance and importance and at the same time he warns against the difficulties with its implementation. Backed by several studies, we must conclude that there is a lot of confusion in terminology we use. It is therefore proposed to apply cost-benefit analysis, so that we could create a unified terminology and simultaneously to use this analysis to present armed conflict economy in terms of overall expenses vs. likely benefits aroused by respective armed warfare.

Although the EU global security strategy has to offer orientation on multiple levels and domains, the present paper approaches the challenges emerging from the Union's eastern neighbourhood. The argumentation includes theoretical aspects of strategy, main characteristics of the Black Sea security environment, trends of frozen conflict evolution, and the EU's approach in this entire context. The study concludes that the serious challenges the EU faces nowadays in its eastern vicinity are the result of phenomena with a consistent history and deficient management by the EU. In our opinion, this train of events¨makes the project of a new EU security strategy so challenging that it could become a new document of an over-general character, with little practical value.

University of Defence, in coop. with General Staff of Czech Armed Forces, declares accreditation of new study programme. Its aim to prepare a universally educated officer with appropriate professional and language skills emphasizing the employability within his or her professional career. This new study programme emphasizes the military character of education and the ability to respond flexibly to the needs of the Army of the Czech Republic. Soft managerial skills of a commander, as far as people leadership is concerned, are also supported significantly. The aim of the article is to show the current effort of the Faculty of Military Leadership at the University of Defence to optimize the university education of a future commander­manager.

The article analyzes several key conclusions of US National Intelligence Council's study "Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds", published in December 2012. Primarily it focuses on: the diffusion of global power influencing political, economic and security development on both global and regional scales; rising importance of the Asia-Pacific region for global economy and security; Sino-American security relations; the role that the United States and Europe should be played in the changing geopolitical reality. The conclusions offer the author's own interpretation of certain development trajectories, based on his earlier published monographs, studies and articles.

The article presents possible approaches to solve problems of finding the optimum state of tactical activities within the level of small Engineer Units. The intention is, by elaborating of the partial engineer goal which is focussed on the area of engineer units' tactics, to develop input data/ information needed for further development of mathematical models of the tactical activities. Subsequently, with the judgement on modelling outputs (applicability within C2 activities of staffs' task force structures) from engineer unit tactics point of view, the article contributes to enhancing all of C2 processes effectiveness. The article also provides us with information about the range of facts relative with problems of selected engineer unit (counter-mobility task forces) deployment planning, and controlling. There can be also found inventory of activities appropriate for optimization.

Operations by Lt.Col. Ing. Jaroslav Moravčík. NATO's current operational experience and that from other operations indicates that purely military actions cannot resolve a complex emergency of crisis. The requirement for the military to interact with non-military actors shows a new, more comprehensive approach. In response, NATO's Effect-Based Approach to Operations was highlighted. The four functions of EBAO and their related activities are mutually supportive. The functions are carried out in a continuous, interactive, parallel process and should not be regarded as sequential steps. They are as follows: Knowledge development; Effect-based planning; Effect-based execution; and Engagement space assessment. EBAO recognizes the importance of applying the various instruments available to the Alliance to create overall effects that will lead to crisis resolution. Achieving synergies amongst NATO and non-NATO actors will enable to identify better how it may best harmonize its contribution with other actors involved in a crisis.

The article deals with the contemporary form of terrorism, introduces selected issues and discusses the psychology of terrorism. Various forms and typologies of contemporary terrorism which occurs in different geographical and cultural areas and uses large scale of methods and tactical and strategic approaches are introduced as well.The main goal of this article is to describe psychological aspects of terrorism with the emphasis on the motivation and group dynamics of terrorist organizations. The staircase metaphor which allows thinking about the process of recruitment of terrorists is introduced as well. The article derives especially from theoretical socio-psychological and political findings.

The paper solved changes in the legislation and the Analyse of continuance of the railway transport branch after the State of National Emergency announce or the State of War announce The analyse highlights on actual difference between documentation (the Operational Read- iness of National Territory) and real options. Long­time and gradual impacts in the entire domain decrease real possibilities of the system. The final step has been cancel of mobilization delivery for protecting and recovery of designated railway network without any measures. The paper offers possible solution of that situation.

The Security System of the Czech Republic has gradually profiled since 1998 to the shape as it is generally defined and described in the final part of the Security Strategy of the Czech Republic (2015). The article is contemplation over some possibilities to further improvement of the system in terms of the current state and challenges arising from developments in the security environment and in terms of options, how to adequately respond to them.

This text is focused on current situation in Syria and Iraq and so called Islamic State, the one of the biggest threats of contemporary world. The rise of this quasi­state at background of civil war in Syria and still not fully solved conflict in Iraq is the result of involvement of many internal and external actors. The form of their involvement and especially their goals are very different from each other and despite sporadic and declaratory agreements in partial points the main reason the Islamic State still exists in very good shape is disunited attitude of local and external powers against it. The main aim of this text is to explain and to analyze main motives and goals of all relevant actors and sides of mentioned conflict and describe the way they affect its dynamics. Due to that it is possible to increase the knowledge of readers in such a chaotic, unclear and often misinterpreted situation in the Middle-East.

There has never been so much primary data on al-Qa'ida publicly available. Nevertheless primary data are still not used enough, despite the fact that their omission had a clearly detrimental effect on the quality of research on al-Qa'ida. The article's goal is twofold: to lay out an overview of the publicly available sources of primary data on al-Qa'ida and by highlighting interesting aspects of their content to demonstrate their usefulness for the research in general. The article deals particularly with outputs of public institutions, al-Qa'ida's members' publications, al-Qa'ida's members' communication that has been made public and leaked classified information. The topic how to use the sources of primary data will be discussed briefly. The article aims at encouraging the academic and expert community to use primary data more broadly when researching al-Qa'ida.

The article identifies specific attributes which have influenced duality of training for urban area operations. There are mentioned only the crucial ones. The author was inspired his own experience as infantry unit commander. He used his knowledge gained from military assignments. The article could be considered as topic for future discussion not only on academic but also on specialized level.

There is currently about 1 500 Moroccan citizens fighting for the so-called Daech in Syria and Iraq; that makes the North African monarchy one of the main countries which export radical islam djihadists and supporters abroad to the war-beaten Syrian-Iraqi region. Until 2014 Moroccan officials let them leave the country almost freely, to be precise, they didn´t prevent them from travelling to Syria, Iraq and other proxy war destinations. That´s how have the Moroccan fighters joined the Daech rows fighting in the beginning against the Syrian president Asad. But it seems now that the situation has rapidly changed: the Kingdom of Morocco is currently fighting and closely monitoring its own foreign fighters who are coming back home. Especially such eventual threat is pushing the country for creating a new national security strategy related to this risky minority, which needs to be integrated back to the Moroccan society.

Infantry company urban operations training experience shows that effective training requires interaction of doctrine with equipment and structure of units. NATO standards must be further developed at the national level to match the technology and organization of own units. Training requires elaboration of training manuals that contain specific tactical exercises for standardized training facilities. Experienced training instructors should focus on the preparation of organic units. Transferring experience from instructors directly to organic units is more efficient than preparing individuals in professional courses.

The text deals with the use of border defense as a means of protection against guerrilla attacks and infiltration, through a combination of principles of modern stationary fortifications and forward area defense. These are discussed on the case study of the Northern Border Security Project of Saudi Arabia. The role of attacker takes quasi-state formation the Islamic State (IS, ISIS, ISIL). The aim is to analyze whether the project would endure distinctive types of asymmetric attacks. Vulnerability prioritization for each component determines the most likely targets and their characteristics. This is a subjective semi quantitative method known as CARVER matrix. Subsequently, based on established premises, the text discusses three selected scenarios that use guerrilla tactics with elements of terrorism against selected targets. Attack scenarios show some of the possible ways of improvement for the project. In conclusion, the author makes recommendations for possible adjustments and assess the potential of using the project as a protection against asymmetric attacks. After reading the text, the reader is informed about the project, its components, as well as recommendations that can be applied in the further use of this type of defense.

This article tries to analyse the employees of central state administration, who are involved in analytical, conception, planning and strategy activities. We organized a research at eleven ministries in 2013, to familiarize themselves with their roles. Only three ministries refused to take part in this research (home office, regional development ministry and agriculture ministry). The results reached describe how examined groups evaluated various factors influencing their analytic and conception performances. The identified state at the Defence Ministry is compared with overall situations at other ministries of the Czech Republic. At the end of this article the author expresses certain suggestions and recommendations how to improve current state of affairs.