Vojenské Rozhledy

Czech Military Review

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Results 751 to 780 of 8453:

A Brief Insight into the History of Operational Art and its Contemporary Aspects (Part I)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2012, Vol. XXI. (LIII.): 34-39 | DOI: 10.3849/2336-2995.21.2012.02.034-039

Understanding the importance and role of present-day operational art is not always a matter of knowledge of relevant doctrinal publications or the use of experiences from military operations. Number of aspects of operational art had their roots deep in the history of warfare. Many of them are unknown or forgotten. This article aims to give the reader some basic information about the context that led to the awareness of the need of operational art and finally to real fulfilling the imaginary gap between strategy and tactics, which was the place for operational art. The article briefly describes the background of the emergence of operational art and the approach of two basic schools of military theory: Soviet and German that were crucial to its development.

Strategical Command and Control in Public Administration and Policy (A Book on Czech Strategic Documents)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 170-171

It is a book review over the book by Prof. F. Ochrana (editor). Its authors tried to define dimensions and leading actors of the so-called strategical governance in the conditions of the Czech Republic with a special respect to strategical planning in public policy. Two chapters of this book are concentrated on military and defence problems. Predispositions for strategical control are backed by the creation and implementation of strategical documents. Among further themes discussed belonged also the White Paper on Defence. We specifically need single or comparative case studies that examine the process of formulating security strategies and their implementation, the interaction between respective processes at national and international levels, and the results of security policy implementation in respective cases.

Two Monographs on Security from Slovakia

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 137-143

Prof. Dr. Štefan Volner, CSc., is a very diligent and prolific author. He is the author of many monographs, books, papers and articles in the field of security and defence policy published worldwide. Now we have his latest two books: Security of Mankind (Bezpečnosť ĺudstva) and Security for the 21st Century (Bezpečnosť 21. storočí). In the former one, he comes out of a broad concept of security. Dr. Volner regards the theory of securitization as a lingual and socially determined construct, and so does analyses of security topics. The purpose of his first monograph is to familiarize experts and students with new theoretical concepts, ideas, methodological approaches and paradigms. The latter monograph has a classical structure tied with security studies; it contains theoretical fundaments, dealing with global risks and classifies wars of 21st century. He regards human security as a multifaceted phenomenon, at macro- and micro- levels.

The Deployment of Capacities and Means of Czech Engineer Troops in Non-combat Operations

Military professional

Doc. Ing. Jaroslav Zelený, CSc., Ing. Jan Mazal, CSc., pplk. Ing. Lubomír Kroupa, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 164-178

The Engineers are specialist soldiers trained in the construction and demolition of bridges, field fortifications, obstacles, roads, etc. Their major task is to support Czech missions abroad, as a part of multinational peacekeeping forces. This article is a preliminary study into the current state of applying the Czech Engineer units in operations other than war as a part of Joint Forces Peace Support Operations. There are mentioned some aspects, for example basic engineer support tasks, possible demanded future capabilities of the Czech Engineer Troops, engineer support to movement and force protection engineering. The purpose of this article is to initiate a debate about the topic and to start the brainstorming process in a broad military environment.

An Introductory to Intelligence Services Activities

Military art

Mgr. Karel Zetocha

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 57-69

Even though many activities related to intelligence and intelligence network after the end of Cold War were released and have become commonplace, classified matters are still in the centre of public's interest. In discussions, experts use various terms tied with espionage or counter-intelligence, but real differences are not too high. In the armed forces (in the frame of NATO) this question was solved by issuing the manual AJP-2, Allied Joint Intelligence, CounterIntelligence and Security Doctrine (NATO 2003). This article summarises key and basic terms used in intelligence services, including new theoretical concepts from this field. As the author writes in the introductory chapter, many experts, namely in civilian and academic fields use the same terminology, but their explanation differs. They use different definitions reflecting diverse circumstances under which they came into existence. The article was written namely as a contribution to interagency communication, among civilian and professional experts, in time when the overall security concept is changing, when military power is not the only tool to avert wide spectrum of security threats of 21st century.

Securing the Quality of Food in the aCr

Military professional

Pplk. Ing. Radomil Novotný, prof. Ing. Aleš Komár, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 148-155

This contribution written by two leading Czech scholars in the field of military nutrition/food deals with the quality of energetic and nutrition of food rations and allowances in the Army of the Czech Republic. The food quality is set by a prescribed index of rational nutrition, consisting of energetic values of used foodstuff and the contents of key nutrients (proteins, fats, saccharides, minerals, and vitamins). Czech defence department sets monetary values and costs of sustenance rations, continuously adapted to the growth of retail prices of food and an average structure of consumption of individual food categories for a person per day. Besides the modification of food supplements, the authors propose to lower energy value of food rations and prefer their biological significance, with regard to contents of fatty acids.

The Vision of State Security

Nonreviewed - Other

Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2006, Vol. XV. (XLVII.): 3-14

What is Necessary to Consider in the Process of Organization Structures Construction, Military Forces Equipment and Training in ACR, after the Ending of "Conception" by Ing. Antonín Krásný, CSc. The very welcomed "Concept of Development of the Professional Army of the Czech Republic and the Mobilization of Armed Forces of the Czech Republic" had to be revised because of the lack financial means. This fact influenced a lot of live of our army. Additional career officers were to leave his services; military material, vehicles were further reduced. At present, we have to balance our military strength with security demands reflecting running changes in world's security surrounding. The main aim of the article is to describe development of security environment in the Central Europe. It considers decision mechanisms reform in NATO and transformations of its military forces structures. It highlights an impact of demographic, technological, institutional changes and changes in value system of defence assurance of the CR. We must still bear in mind that for us, NATO alliance, supplemented by the EU structures, is the main tool of our security.

EBAO-The Method How to Control Prospective NATO Operations

Military art

Pplk. Ing. Jaroslav Moravčík

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 61-65

Operations by Lt.Col. Ing. Jaroslav Moravčík. NATO's current operational experience and that from other operations indicates that purely military actions cannot resolve a complex emergency of crisis. The requirement for the military to interact with non-military actors shows a new, more comprehensive approach. In response, NATO's Effect-Based Approach to Operations was highlighted. The four functions of EBAO and their related activities are mutually supportive. The functions are carried out in a continuous, interactive, parallel process and should not be regarded as sequential steps. They are as follows: Knowledge development; Effect-based planning; Effect-based execution; and Engagement space assessment. EBAO recognizes the importance of applying the various instruments available to the Alliance to create overall effects that will lead to crisis resolution. Achieving synergies amongst NATO and non-NATO actors will enable to identify better how it may best harmonize its contribution with other actors involved in a crisis.

Wars of the New Millennium (Informative Review)

Book review

PhDr. A. Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 141-142

The Slovak author Štefan Volner wrote a book called The Wars of the 21st Century (Zvolen 2007). After the break-up of common Czechoslovak state we promised each other that the relations between Czechs and Slovaks will not change, but after fifteen years we see that we are really departed, when speaking about Slovak home policy, about Slovak security questions, its army. Štefan Volner who often publishes in the review Vojenské rozhledy helps to cover this gap and thus our military public can follow his scholarly works dealing with security and defence. In reviewed book he enumerates the causes of 21st century wars and analyses four basic paradigms: civilizational; Toffler's third wave; realistic approach; and finally thermodynamics, dealing with non-linear causes of war. Asymmetric wars came into existence as the roots of wars are asymmetric. It is not difficult to win the war, but more difficult is to guarantee post-war reconstruction.

E-Learning: A New Element in Language Instructions at the Defense Language Institute in Vyškov

Language preparation

PhDr. Marie Jandová, CSc., Ing. Eva Klausová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 118-120

The article describes certain findings obtained during the introduction of new methods in the teaching of English language courses organized at Defense Language Institute, Vyškov. It outlines possible problems, which will have to be addressed before the wider exploitation of e-learning in language education for the MoD. It expresses the optimism that e-learning will find the rightful place, especially in the realm of distance learning, as well as support of the administrative and command authorities. The dynamic development of e-learning is prevented only by the barriers of legislative provenance, as military computer network must be protected and secure. The leading authorities are searching for suitable connecting of users that are not only passive participants, but they must be tested and instructed.

The Preventive Aspects of the Overweight and Obesity in the Army of the Czech Republic

Informational pages

Pplk. MUDr. Pavlík Vladimír Ph.D., pplk. MUDr. Jana Fajfrová, kpt. MUDr. Michaela Husárová, doc. MUDr. Pavol Hlúbik CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 130-135

The problem of obesity is most frequent metabolic disease rising from unhealthy life style of contemporary population. Cardiovascular and metabolic disorders are pressing even in the AČR, so the authors could describe monitoring the risk factors of non-infectious diseases of mass incidence and the implementation of preventive programme with excessive weight losses, using dietetic, psychological, movements and pharmacological approaches that offer real stimulant for decrease in overweight and obesity prevalence within the Czech Army and concurrently decrease in morbidity of Czech servicemen.

Information Process as a Part of Command and Control System Part II

Military art

Pplk. Ing. Petr Ryp

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 93-100

The Command and Control process may be defined as an ability to determine what to do and implement effective actions. With the use of the Standard Operating Procedures, the commander must be able to realize set tasks in defined time. The C2 system must be able to monitor and collect data on the situation, to develop an understanding of the situation, to develop a course(s) of action and select one, to develop a plan to execute the selected course of action, to execute the plan, to include providing direction and leadership to subordinates, to monitor execution of the plan and adapt as necessary. The commander draws the picture of situation on the base of surveillance and data collection from various sources, classified and unclassified. The context of information is formed by means of paradigm of personal experiences of commander and his intuition.

Operational Areas and BG EU

Military art

Ing. Jaroslav Kulíšek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 19-36

Africa has became synonymous with conflict, increasingly violent and protracted. The continent is facing huge difficulties today and the EU is more and more involved in peace enforcement and expeditionary operations. Therefore the purpose of this article is to inform and pass knowledge of operational environment to those Czech soldiers designated to deploy overseas and abroad. It covers topics such as operational areas, understanding EU Battle Group operational Environment and Africa's operational environment. It is necessary for Czech soldiers to understand African operational environment very quickly and profoundly to avoid unfortunate misunderstanding of the local culture, customs, believes, religions, regional official and customary laws. It is a new challenge for the Armed Forces of the Czech Republic to be prepared for the CZE/SVK Battle Group. All information and data for this paper were drawn from unclassified sources.

1st Part: Economy Theory and Effective Management in the Army Some Economy Comments on Conditioned Participation of External Sources in Defence Environment

Nonreviewed - Other

Prof. PhDr. Miroslav Krč, CSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. ZC/2007, Vol. XVI. (XLVIII.): 3-21

Defence system is effective as far as economy is concerned only when target function is met with the minimal overall costs. It is the opening motto to the study by university economy teacher Mr. Krč, Defence University Brno. He concentrates on the so-called outsourcing, both its strong points and drawbacks, audited account, managerial transaction costs, controlling. The outsourcing is a combination of economic, technological, organizational and humane aspects.

Al Qai'da Hybridisation in North Africa and its Implication for Europe

Military art

Bc. Martin Janků

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 55-70

The article is focused on issue of hybridisation of Al Qai'da in Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), in North Africa, and its implications for European countries. The process of hybridisation is being conceived as growing nexus and convergence between violent non-state actors, while these processes could be in this case identified mainly in issues of use of kidnappings and secondary also reported involvement of AQIM in regional smuggling, mainly drugs, activities through Sahel and Saharan region to Europe. Regarding GSPC background, AQIM could be in long term theoretically able to re-establish its financial and supporting networks in Europe via cooperation with organized crime, which were largely disrupted after major crackdowns by security forces between 2004-2007. Event though a direct Al Qai'da attack in Europe is-according to the author-excluded, the purpose of this article to draw our attention to an eventuality of rebirth of European operation network of AQIM operational predecessor, i.e. GSPC.

Decisive Points Concept (Part II)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 65-73

The article continues explanation basic operational terms, familiarizes readers with true theoretical fundamentals of the key element of operational design - the decisive point. Basic doctrinal interpretations are described and explained. Its introduction and utilization is visible during the operational planning process and elaboration of operational design. The concept of decisive point has a close connection to the other concepts, namely lines of operations, the centre of gravity and the end state. The concept is further evolved via example of peace support military operation planning process. Key words: decisive points, decisive conditions, lines of operations, centre of gravity, effect, kinetic, nonkinetic operations, doctrine.

Jan Eichler: Terrorism and Wars in Era of Globalisation. (Is it possible to prevent wars?)

Book review

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 172-174

The author Jan Eichler works at the Institution of International Relations Prague, so those are the themes he is professionally involved in. His publication deals with security threats and their assessments at the beginning of 21st century. This second edition of his book is amended by several wars taking place since the first edition was released. They were wars between Russia and Georgia 2008-2009, Israel vs. the Palestinians 2008-2009, several conflicts in Africa, Columbia, and Sri Lanka; ISAF operations in Afghanistan; in Iraq the new attitude of the USA towards conflict solution. Somalia represents a typical failed state with warlords, criminal gangs, Somalia and sea piracy is a mutually tied problem the word community was not able to solve. Last but not least, there are dangerous activities of Islamists in North Africa. Even though those mentioned conflicts are only regional, their consequences are global. They therefore need the involvement of international organizations, the EU and the UN respectively.

Extremism from the Point of Views of Soldiers (Analysis of Sociological Investigation into Extremism in the Czech Armed Forces)

Military sociology

Doc. JUDr. PhDr. Miroslav Mareš, PhD., PhDr. Josef Smolík, PhD., Mgr. Petra Vejvodová

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 163-173

The paper deals with the relation between political extremism and regular soldiers of the Czech armed forces (from the point of view of military staff). The threat of presence of extremists in the army is conceptualized in this paper. After that there are presented methodology, outcomes and interpretations of research sociological investigation, which was realized in February and March 2009 at Czech armed forces. As a risk should be assessed mostly information about contacts with extremists in the army and information about very different attitudes in relation to the importance of the issue "extremism in the army".

Vzdelavani v oblasti krizoveho rizeni

Ing. Miroslav Jurenka

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2005, Vol. XIV. (XLVI.): 99-102

Islamism as a Security Threat to the Czech Republic

Informational pages

Doc. PhDr. JUDr. Miroslav Mareš, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 118-128

This paper deals with various forms of Islamist threats to the Czech Republic, with specific attention paid to military issues. It defines the basic terms and describes the role of the Czech Republic in Islamist strategies. Threats of terrorism and jihadism, extremism and riots, violation of women's rights, including the so-called "honour crimes", and internal clashes within the Muslim community are analyzed. Contemporary situation of the Czech Republic can be characterized mostly as "logistic area" to Islamism. Even thought there is not an eminent danger, the intensity of several Islamist threats could be higher in the future. The primary purpose of this article is to form a basic frame for identification of prospective terrorist attacks by means of extrapolation.

Does China Conquer Also Europe? (Reflections over Security Analyses and Prognoses)

Informational pages

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D., PhDr.Antonín Rašek

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 94-102

The gravity of this article is laid down on the present-day state of affairs. China bought Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek obligations, i.e. China lent a hand to those countries (so did the European Union). In this way, China increased its influence in Europe. Stabilized Europe is necessary for Chinese export, it was not mere charity. Defence expenditures of People's China has reached 100 billions USED a year. Supposing the Chinese are intended to reach world's domination, they should stick to this kind of policy and they should not try to acquire the dominance by armed force. China behaves like an asymmetric power, knowing well that it can't surpass the U.S. by arms. China does not want to repent Russian mistake to be "over-armed" by America in futile arms race. Still, there is plenty of free space to compete with the U.S., e.g. cosmic or space competition, computer and Internet technologies.

The Lines of Operation Concept (Part I)

Military art

Ing. Ján Spišák

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 38-49

There are two great interpreters of the Napoleonic experience, Jomini and Clausewitz. Both were interested in the application of military force to achieve political goals. The article familiarizes readers with Jomini's theoretical fundamentals of operational design elements, namely the lines of operations. Jomini left a great mark on the details of strategic planning: campaign planning, the selection of the theatre of operation, the base of operation, the line of operation, and decisive points. At the end of this process of selection was the final deployment for the decisive battle. Jomini's major contribution, then, was to provide the geometry of the battle space. In his investigation of the nature of war he developed several key operational concepts. As an operational art tools they help the commander and staff to visualize the arrangement of military capabilities in time, space, and purpose to accomplish the mission. The concept of operational lines is evolved in all operational functions in terms of ongoing military missions.

Critical Looks at Hybrid Wars Concept

Military art

Ing. Pavel Zůna, MSS

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 33-45

The term "hybrid war" is frequently used today within the military community, but the term does not bring something new in the view of the terminology of the stability operations, comprehensive approach or compound wars. This concept is based on the destructive threats to the military components of international community. It does not help in delimiting reasons of violent confl ict and from that point it is harmful, as it does not explain soldiers why they are fi ghting the "just war", why they should sacrifi ce their lives in confl icts far away from their homeland. We should not use terms of hybrid wars, hybrid confl icts, hybrid enemies or forces. Only "hybrid warfare" could find some legitimacy, but only when used with the correct definition of the conflict typology, backed by the political objectives of the war. Confl icts typology, as used, forms the framework for the mission analysis orientation at all command & control levels and it guides the informational support to the military decision making processes.

Decisive Points Concept (Part I)

Military art

Ing. Ján SPIŠÁK

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 34-40

The article familiarizes readers with theoretical fundamentals of the key element of operational design, i.e. decisive point that is described as "a point from which a hostile or friendly centre of gravity can be threatened". It may exist in time, space or the information environment. As a tool of operational art, it helps commander and his staff to unlock the path to the centre of gravity. The concept is further evolved via example of peace support military operation planning process. The close understanding to terms decisive points, lines of operations, centre of gravity, kinetic effects, non-kinetic operations, doctrine is for military planners fundamental. The aim of this article is therefore to explain this basic terminology, to describe connections with other element of operational planning that could be used during all steps of operational planning. Basic theoretical Jomini's implications are introduced and their doctrinal interpretations are highlighted.

New Global and Regional Actors and World and European Security

Reviewed

PhDr. Miloš Balabán, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 30-37

Taking into account the prepared 2011 Security Strategy and the White Paper on Defence in our country, due attention ought to be paid to political ambitions and economy influence of emerging actors, both world and regional. In ten or twenty years to come we shall face basic transformation of international system. Today, there are four main global power centres: North America (United States, Canada), the European Union, China and Japan. The author of this study concentrates predominantly on their economy strength that is also a base of all sources spent on armed forces. Among emerging powers belongs above all India, regional power in South Asia, Brazil in Latin America, followed by Indonesia, Turkey, and Mexico. They together cover 52 per cent of word's economy production. Different interests give rise to various disputes, but they are able to act cohesively against e.g. decisions by G-20. Among other's the article is accompanied by the table comparing military powers of the USA and Russia.

Long-Term Monitoring of Actual Health Status Parameters of Czech Population with Emphasis on ACR Servicemen

Military sociology

Mgr. Libor Soumar, Ph.D., PhDr. Čestmír Oberman

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 174-189

This article presents trends in actual physical status of Czech population with emphasis to the military population. The battery of standard tests was used to monitor the basic health related parameters. This test battery was applied to large sample demographic groups. The results verify expected trends. Anthropometrical data show that the population reaches critical level of overweight at age of 40. Blood pressure tends to increase more rapidly after age of 45. Strength and cardiovascular fitness peaks at age of 25, followed by steady decline. Although it was predicted that military personnel should reach higher physical fitness level and lower risk factors, there were no significant difference between military and civilian population. Effect of three-month basic training on actual health status is quite positive, it improves body composition, but no special effect on overall strength. Higher levels of physical readiness were found only in small special units.

Main Principles of International Humanitarian Law

Military law

RNDr. Marek Jukl, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 4/2011, Vol. XX. (LII.): 178-184

Contemporary International Humanitarian Law (IHL) is the law of armed conflict or law of war and their effects. The goal of IHL is to limit the effects of warfare on people and property and to protect particularly vulnerable persons. The IHL does not exclude war activities as it acknowledges the principle of the so-called war necessity. Humanitarian law is the branch of public international law that comprises the rules, which, in times of armed conflict, seek to protect persons who are not or are no longer taking part in the hostilities, restrict the methods and means of warfare employed, and resolve matters of humanitarian concern resulting from war. This article is intended to help to soldiers to understand better IHL rules and principles.

The Reality of Present-day Service Physical Training: Quo Vadis for Second Time (Concept and Origins of PT in Czech Defence Department)

Opinions, controversy

Mgr. Antonín Konrád

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 1/2010, Vol. XIX. (LI.): 114-122

The author summarizes in several items the history of service PT both before 1990, in the 90s, and finally at the beginning of this century. What tasks are in front of us? First we must create legal basis for a new conceptual frame of service PT; secondly we must form new methods of drills and training for servicemen in special PT skills, with risk exercises, corresponding to warfare and combat situations, backed by respective legislation. The author hopes that our own practice and experiences from abroad of MoD officials will certainly help to create new alternative concepts together with indispensable recreational PT for soldiers, including appropriate forms of physical training for women in uniform.

The Evaluation of Health Risks of Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields Generated by Radars - Parti

Military professional

Prof. Ing. František Božek, CSc., por. Ing. Lukáš Kubiček, Ph.D.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 2/2009, Vol. XVIII. (L.): 99-110

The paper deals with the risk assessment of professional exposure to the non-ionizing electromagnetic fields caused by radars in the selected military unit. The measured values of electric field or power density in the indication zones where the staff is exposed to the effects of the radar's non-ionizing electromagnetic field was used for the risk assessment with the acceptance of national and European standards. The principle of preliminary precaution was applied concurrently with the risk assessment according to the valid standards. The authors discuss the values of measured outcomes. They used the Checklist Analysis for qualifications of risks and for quantitative risk specifications they use the so-called brainstorming.

Cataclysm Scenario 2050-Imagining the Unthinkable

Nonreviewed - Other

Prof. Ing. Josef Říha, DrSc.

Vojenské rozhledy / Czech Military Review Nr. 3/2008, Vol. XVII. (XLIX.): 3-10

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable of the worst case scenario for the global future post-modern society. The analysis addresses the main features of global risk society, human suffering, and loss of life from natural catastrophes, man-made catastrophes, economic losses, peak-oilcrises impacts, threat of terrorism, radical Islam, fragile states, etc. Important are the consequences of the end of the Vestfal system and global climate change. There is substantial evidence to indicate that significant global warming will occur during the 21st century. The research suggests that once temperature rises above some threshold, adverse weather conditions could develop relatively abruptly. Drought persists for most of the decade in critical agricultural regions and in the water resource regions for major population centres in Europe. As fertility shrivels, societies get older-and much of Europe are set to get older than any functioning societies have ever been. To avoid collapse, European nations will need to take immigrants at a rate no stable society ever attempted. Europe will be significantly more Islamic.

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